NHL: Penguins vs. Flyers odds, picks, prediction
It’s been a little while since the stakes were this high for a game between the Philadelphia Flyers and Pittsburgh Penguins. The Flyers, who came into the season as a longshot to even make the playoffs, are currently in third place in the Metropolitan Division and sit four points ahead of the Penguins, who are two points behind New Jersey for the last Wild Card berth.
You don’t want to get ahead of yourself when there’s still 40+ games on the schedule for both teams, but this one will carry significant weight given where each team sits in the standings.
The Penguins are a slight road favorite at the time of writing.
The Flyers got back on track with a well-deserved win over the Calgary Flames on Saturday afternoon. Philadelphia held Calgary to just 24 shots and 1.8 expected goals in the contest and looked much more like the team that was turning heads through the first 30 games of the season rather than the one we saw drop six of the seven previous tilts before beating the Flames.
At their best, the Flyers have great structure at 5-on-5 and make you work for every inch of ice. Their swarming, pressure-forward identity has worked wonders all season and the numbers prove it. Not only are the Flyers in a playoff spot much deeper into the campaign than anybody would have guessed, but they rank 11th in 5-on-5 goal difference, ninth in expected goal rate and 11th in high-danger scoring chance percentage.
In fact, Philadelphia’s 5-on-5 numbers are basically on par with the Penguins. Pittsburgh certainly has more game-breaking talent in its ranks and can win even if they’re out-chanced, but the Flyers have every chance of skating with the Pens in this contest. There’s really no decided edge at 5-on-5.
The Flyers have begun to get respect from the betting market over the past few weeks as it’s become pretty apparent that this is no fluke, but I still think there’s some value on the home underdog in this spot. These two teams have similar numbers at 5-on-5 and there’s no real goaltending edge, but it’s the Flyers who could win the depth minutes and getting them at plus-money on home ice seems like a savvy bet.
The Bet: Flyers +105 (DraftKings)
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