NHL: Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Philadelphia Flyers odds, prediction, picks
The Philadelphia Flyers continue to be a friend to underdog bettors.
The Flyers have gone 7-3-1 in their past 11 contests with five of their last seven wins registering as upsets. Philadelphia has wins over the Kings, Golden Knights, Islanders, Hurricanes and Penguins in the last month and there’s nothing flukey about the results.
The Flyers can add another upset to their pile against the Pittsburgh Penguins on Monday night. Philadelphia is currently sitting as a +110 home underdog against its in-state rival.
This is quite a fun matchup to handicap because the Penguins and Flyers are polar opposites of one another right now. While Philadelphia relies on a team game and commitment to structure at 5-on-5 to grind out results, Pittsburgh is relying on its game-breakers (like Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jake Guentzel and Erik Karlsson) to cover up their flaws.
On some nights, that strategy pays off. Crosby, Malkin, Guentzel and Karlsson don’t need to dominate the puck to punish you and are fantastic in transition, so you could spend all night in Pittsburgh’s zone and still find yourself on the wrong side of the scoreboard. But the downside to that is that if those guys are contained, the Penguins aren’t getting much support from the bottom of their lineup or on special teams.
Pittsburgh’s 5-0n-5 numbers were terrific in the early going, but they trended down over the last few weeks and now will take on a Flyers team that’s posted strong metrics at even strength all season.
The Flyers don’t have the starpower to steal games in which they’re outplayed with any matter of consistency, so they go into every game looking to outwork their opponents at 5-on-5 and win that way. Philadelphia was the much better team at 5-on-5 (the expected goals ended 1.9 to 0.8 in favor of the Flyers) in the first leg of this home-and-home and I see no reason to expect the Flyers to take a step back here.
The Flyers have every chance to skate with the Penguins at 5-on-5 and with Pittsburgh’s power play struggling and the goaltending matchup a wash, I have no problem backing Philadelphia at plus-money on Monday night.
The Bet: Philadelphia Flyers +110 (DraftKings)
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