NL Wild Card Series Game 2: Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions
The Miami Marlins visit the Philadelphia Phillies Wednesday hoping to extend their NL Wild Card Series. First pitch at Citizens Bank Park is slated for 8:08 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Marlins vs. Philliesodds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Series: Phillies lead 1-0
The Marlins rallied from playing sub-.400 baseball in July and August for a 17-10 September finish and a spot in their 1st full-season playoffs since 2003. But Miami starter Jesus Luzardo faltered in Tuesday's opener, allowing 3 runs on 8 hits. Now the Fish need to win to avoid an early exit.
Philadelphia's pitching was shaky down the stretch, and the club registered a 4.47 ERA over its last 30 games. But RHP Zach Wheeler and 3 relievers were sharp in allowing just 1 run Tuesday. And the Phillies offense created 4 runs despite going just 3 of 14 with runners in scoring position.
Marlins at Phillies projected starters
LHP Braxton Garrett vs. RHP Aaron Nola
Garrett went 9-7 with a 3.66 ERA in the regular season. He logged a 1.15 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 159 2/3 innings over 30 starts and 1 relief appearance.
- Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 3 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 2 K in 11-2 road loss vs. New York Mets last Wednesday
- 2023 road stats: 6-3, 2.85 ERA in 79 IP across 15 starts; benefited from a .273 batting average on balls in play
- Last 5 starts vs. Phillies: 2-1, 4.50 ERA in 24 IP
- Has never pitched in the postseason
Nola went 12-9 with a 4.46 ERA this season. He registered a 1.15 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 193 2/3 innings across 32 starts.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 2/3 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 8 K in 3-2 home win vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Sept. 26; owns a 2.60 ERA, 1.04 across last 3 starts
- 2023 home stats: 6-3, 3.29 ERA in 87 2/3 IP across 14 starts
- Last 5 starts vs. Marlins: 1-2, 3.77 ERA in 31 IP
- Owns a 4.92 ERA in 25 2/3 postseason innings
Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
Marlins at Phillies odds
BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines updated at 1:31 p.m. ET.
Marlins at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 4, Marlins 3
The Marlins being over .500 with a scoring profile of 4.12 runs per game (RPG) while allowing 4.46 RPG makes them a fade lean for the series. The Fish went 33-13 in 1-run games to tilt the scales back the other way, but they are perhaps, at their base-talent level, an under-.500 club.
The Phils went 49-35 across June, July and August. If Miami sees the Philadelphia bunch as it played during that stretch, then the Phillies are a bargain at -180, let alone where this one is priced.
The Phils hit lefties and righties alike. Miami, however, sports a more dangerous lineup vs. port-siders (.755 OPS). They own a .711 OPS against right-handers.
The bullpens make for a green check in the Philadelphia column. Including Tuesday's win, the Phils are 22-11 over their last 33 games at home.
This season, Garrett has clocked 16 IP against Philadelphia. Over those frames, he's yielded 5 HRs and 12 ER. Nola's surface numbers were dinged by opponents getting by with a .340 batting average on balls in play.
And then there is the extra-rest issue with which both hurlers are dealing. Over his career, when Garrett pitches on 6-plus days' rest, he has experienced some control problems while allowing an .805 OPS. Nola's case is the opposite: the veteran right-hander has held foes under a .600 OPS on such rest the last two years; for his career, he's yielded just a .624 OPS on long rest,
BACK THE PHILLIES (-150).
PASS.
Consider a Phillies -1.5 play if the return gets to +145 or greater.
No signals pointing to value on either side of this total. PASS.
