Rangers vs Astros Prediction, Picks, Odds

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16 April 2023

Rangers vs Astros Prediction, Picks, Odds

While Andrew Heaney threw 10 strikeouts last time out, he's far from a consistent performer and there are plenty of reasons to fade the southpaw when he goes up against the Astros lineup tonight. Read more in our MLB betting picks below.

Sunday Night Baseball heads down to the Lone Star State for an intrastate battle between the Texas Rangers (8-6) and Houston Astros (7-8).

This will be the series finale after the first two games were split, with Houston grabbing a 6-2 victory in Game 1 and Texas bouncing back for an 8-2 win in Game 2.

Game 3 will be a matchup between two southpaws as the Ranges send Andrew Heaney to the bump while the Astros counter with Framber Valdez.

Rangers vs Astros odds

Rangers vs Astros predictions

For Sunday Night Baseball’s best bet, I'll be taking a look at the MLB player prop market for Texas Rangers starter Andrew Heaney.

He posted an 11.0% barrel rate a year ago that was one of the worst in MLB among qualified starters, so I’m not necessarily inclined to believe that his decent 3.39 xERA and 3.75 FIP from that season are replicable from year-to-year.

The xERA was a career-best across 10 seasons while the FIP was close to a career-best (he posted a 3.73 FIP with the Angels back in 2015), so it’s fair to say that 2022 was the best season of Heaney’s career. Considering his profile still featured a terrible barrel rate and an unsustainable 35.5% strikeout rate, it’s fair to question how much success he'll have in 2023 and beyond.

Now, for more on that strikeout rate. He’s always had swing-and-miss stuff and induced a healthy amount of strikeouts, but his 35.5% strikeout rate from 2022 was 6.6% higher than it had been in any other season and a full 10% higher than his career strikeout rate of 25.5%.

His 10-strikeout performance in his last outing is an indicator that the insane punchout rate could continue, although I’ll point out that his swinging strike percentage of 12.3% so far this season is more in-line with his career rate of 12.4% — but noticeably lower than his outlier 16.8% swinging strike percentage of 2022.

The Houston Astros have the lowest strikeout rate in the league against lefthanders at 13.5% — well clear of second-to-last Washington at 14.8%. While such a low rate may be unsustainable over a full season, they also held the lowest strikeout rate in the league in 2022 at just 17.4%, which was 2.4% less than any other squad.

Heaney has had his struggles on the road during his career, allowing a .770 OPS across 66 appearances in away games. Fading his strikeout prop might seem dicey after he just punched out 10 batters in his last appearance, but Heaney has always been an up-and-down pitcher who struggles with consistency.

This is a difficult matchup on the road against an Astros team that avoids striking out against left-handers better than any other ballclub in the Big Leagues. I’ll grab some of that plus money for SNB’s best bet.

My best bet: Andrew Heaney Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125)

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Rangers vs Astros moneyline analysis

The Astros are listed as -200 favorites on the moneyline across most sportsbooks. The best price currently available on both respective sides is Houston -195 and Texas +175, both at WynnBET.

Houston has typically dominated this matchup between two Lone Star State teams, winning 41 of the last 57 meetings. The Astros are also very tough to beat at Minute Maid Park, where they’ve posted a 64-28 record across their last 92 home games.

Texas has struggled on the road, posting a 2-8 record across its last 10 away games. The Rangers have also struggled against left-handed starters, losing five straight such games.

Since both teams will be sending out a left-handed starter, it’s worth taking a look at both respective squads’ numbers against southpaws. Houston ranks seventh in wRC+ (120) and eighth in wOBA (.347), which stands clear above Texas in both categories — the Rangers rank 25th in wRC+ (74) and 26th in wOBA (.278).

Personally, I don’t see much value with the moneyline but agree with the Astros being established as a -200 favorite considering they have an advantage in both the starting pitching and lineup categories.

Rangers vs Astros Over/Under analysis

The total opened at 7.5 but quickly took some money on the Over, moving the line to a flat 8 at current.

Both teams have been Over machines to start 2023 — the Astros are 10-5 O/U while the Rangers are right behind at 9-5 O/U. That might come as a little bit of a surprise considering neither lineup has been beating the cover off the ball, as Houston ranks 13th in wRC+ (102) while Texas is 19th with a 97 wRC+.

We already touched on Heaney in the best bet section above, so let’s dive into Framber Valdez a bit more. The left-hander has a 23.4% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate this season, which both are mostly in line with his career numbers and very similar to his ratios from a season ago when he posted a 23.5% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate.

He does a pretty good job limiting hard contact, evidenced by his 5.8% barrel rate from a season ago — a number that sits at 5.9% this season. It’s remarkable how close his numbers are this season to a year ago despite there being such a small sample size in 2023.

This means that we can forecast another successful campaign from the left-hander until further notice.

Rangers vs Astros game info

Rangers vs Astros betting preview

Starting pitchers

Andrew Heaney (1-1, 8.22 ERA): Heaney was positively electric his last time out against Kansas City, striking out 10 batters across five innings while allowing just a single unearned run. His ERA is still above 8.00 thanks to a blowup spot in his first start of the season, surrendering seven earned across just 2 2/3 innings against Baltimore. He’s bounced around the league as the Rangers will be his fourth team in the last three seasons.

Framber Valdez (1-1, 1.89 ERA): Valdez truly broke out last season, earning his first All-Star nomination while making the All-MLB First Team. He’s continued that success in 2023 with three successful starts to begin the year. He’s failed to allow more than two earned runs in a start so far this season, although his 3.70 xERA and 3.42 FIP do indicate some regression from his 1.89 ERA.