Twins vs Astros Predictions, Picks, Odds

Covers

08 October 2023

Between Framber Valdez and Pablo Lopez, the starting pitching in Game 2 between the Twins and Astros is expected to be top-notch. Find out how to take advantage in our MLB betting preview below.

The Houston Astros took Game 1 of the ALDS with a 6-4 victory over the Minnesota Twins.

Minnesota mounted a comeback bid that fell short, plating four runs in the seventh inning which proved too little, too late. The Twins got the monkey off their back by snapping an 18-game losing streak in the postseason and winning their first playoff series in 21 years.

Houston won’t let up any time soon, however, as Dusty Baker’s squad is looking to win back-to-back World Series and reach the ALCS for the seventh straight year.

Looking at MLB odds, the Astros are a slight favorite of -135 while the total is set at a flat 8.

I have my sight set on the total in a game featuring two effective starting pitchers in Minnesota’s Pablo Lopez and Houston’s Framber Valdez.

Twins vs Astros odds

Twins vs Astros Game 2 odds

Twins vs Astros series odds

Twins vs Astros predictions

Game 2 features a fascinating starting pitching matchup that makes this game must-watch television.

Pablo Lopez gets the call for the Minnesota Twins. He was one of this franchise’s big offseason acquisitions and has performed admirably this season, but now is when the front office is looking for its investment to truly pay off.

The right-hander was effective in his first career postseason game in the AL Wild Card Series, allowing a single run across 5 2/3 IP against the Blue Jays.

His underlying metrics paint the picture of a highly effective ace. The 27-year-old checks in at the 94th percentile in xERA, 95th percentile in chase rate, and 85th percentile in average exit velocity. He may not be as big of a name as some other aces, but he’s been a consistent and productive arm for four years now who doesn’t quite seem to always get his flowers. A strong postseason showing or two could change that.

The Venezuelan hurler has been better on the road (3.10 ERA) than at home (4.21 ERA) this year and has also been better at night (3.37 ERA) than during the day (4.25). That all fairs well for this matchup.

The Twins weren’t able to capitalize on the opportunities it had against Justin Verlander in Game 1, grounding into double plays and stranding baserunners until Jorge Polanco and Royce Lewis broke things open with home runs in the seventh inning. They’ll be hard-pressed to bounce back with an offensive explosion in Game 2 as Framber Valdez gets the nod for Houston.

The left-hander has plenty of postseason experience and has been effective in spots like this in the past, accumulating a 7-2 record and a 3.41 ERA across 13 playoff appearances. He did allow nine earned runs across his last two starts of the regular season, but his track record is long enough by now that it’s probably not wise to overreact to a small sample size of recent troubles.

Minnesota has been fine but unspectacular against lefties this season, posting a 100 wRC+ (15th in the MLB) and .315 wOBA (19th). While there’s not much to initially glean from those numbers, consider that the Twins have posted a 111 wRC+ (fifth) and .330 wOBA (fifth) against right-handed pitching. Put simply, they don’t hit lefties quite as well and Valdez should like his chances for an effective outing on Sunday.

Both teams have to like their chances once they turn things over to the bullpen. Both squads have an ERA below 4.00 in relief this season as Houston (3.56 ERA) and Minnesota (3.95 ERA).

I see two quality starting pitchers with reasonable chances for an effective Game 2 and two good bullpens behind them. I will be targeting the Under with my best bet in what I project as a low-scoring matchup and I’d play it down to 7.5.

My best bet: Under 8 (-115 at DraftKings)

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Twins vs Astros same-game parlay

Under 8.5 (-135)

Framber Valdez to record 5+ strikeouts (-115)

No Run First Inning (-125)

This SGP is a three-legger centered around my best bet on the Under.

The first play I’m adding is Valdez to record at least five strikeouts. Minnesota has been the most strikeout-prone team in the league, posting an obscene 26.6% K-rate.

That’s not a category you want to be atop the leaderboard in, and the Twins aren’t as effective against left-handed pitching. Given his postseason experience and the matchup at home, Valdez should be expected to find his groove on Sunday.

The last play I’ll add is no run to be scored in the first inning. I’m a huge fan of Lopez’s game and think he’s been undoubtedly effective this year, so I expect both he and Valdez to come out hurling and temper the offensive output early in this contest.

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Twins vs Astros moneyline and Over/Under analysis

There’s been a bit of line movement in this matchup as Houston has settled between -135 and -140 across the board after hovering around -150 when this line was released.

The total has started to drop to 7.5 after the books presumably took some Under money, although 8 is still available at the time of this writing.

Be sure to shop around using our MLB odds tool to ensure that you grab the best line available before placing your wager, and you can track MLB line movement to see where the prices are moving up until the first pitch.

It makes sense that Houston is the favorite as home with a quality starting pitcher in Valdez on the mound. That being said, I don’t see any value in a line around -140 and am slightly tempted by the underdog.

Lopez has been aces on the road and has elite underlying metrics this season, so I’m not too concerned with his performance in this spot. While Minnesota’s offense numbers aren’t quite as good against left-handers, they still aren’t terrible and don’t put them at too much of a disadvantage in the lineup department. The Twins have won three straight games in which Lopez is the starter.

MLB player props page for this matchup. My personal favorite is the Over on Valdez’s strikeout prop, which can be had for plus money (+113) at a low number of 4.5.

Trend to know

These teams have combined to go 2-6 O/U across their last four games. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Astros

Twins vs Astros game info

Starting pitchers

Pablo Lopez (1-0, 1.59 ERA): Lopez was excellent for Minnesota and was perhaps even a bit better than his surface-level stats show. His 3.00 xERA, 3.33 FIP, and 3.28 xFIP are all ahead of his actual ERA. The righty is even better on the road (3.10 ERA) than at home (4.21 ERA), which bodes well for this start.

Framber Valdez (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Valdez remains among the most effective pitchers in the game. His ERA had not finished above 3.50 since a brief 70 IP showing in 2019. The veteran’s 4.33 xERA lagged behind his actual ERA, although his 3.50 FIP and 3.39 xFIP are both encouraging. He has a 3.35 ERA across 102 IP at home this season.