Ravens vs. Steelers Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 5

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06 October 2023

Ravens vs. Steelers Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 5

One of the NFL’s bestrivalries resumes in Week 5 as the Pittsburgh Steelers host the BaltimoreRavens, and we have you covered with our top Ravens vs. Steelers predictionsbased on the best NFL odds.

The Baltimore Ravens improved to 25-6 against the Cleveland Browns underhead coach John Harbaugh last week, and the 25-point margin of victory was its largest inthe series dating back to 2003.

Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Steelers have injury concerns atthe quarterback position after Kenny Pickett left last week’s game in the thirdquarter with a knee injury. The Steelers struggled offensively in a 30-6 lossto the Houston Texans last week, the second game in three seasons without a touchdownunder offensive coordinator Matt Canada.

Here is our best Ravens vs. Steelers prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Ravens vs.Steelers prediction

Ravens -3.5 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

Backing the Ravens to cover a spread of more than a field goalin this rivalry may seem blasphemous, as three or fewer points have decided theprevious four meetings between these teams. However, between Pittsburgh’soffensive inefficiencies and the fact that Baltimore may have found its bestformula for success last week suggests a road cover by the favorite is inorder.

With Lamar Jackson under center, the Ravens are 40-13 when hehas five or more designed rushes and are 12-9 when he has fewer than five.Baltimore scored a season-high 28 points in its win at Cleveland last week,and it was Jackson’s first career game with two passing touchdowns and tworushing touchdowns (both on designed runs).

Over the first three weeks, the Ravens had 30 rushes withplayers moving at the snap and churned out 119 rush yards on those plays, withthree 10-yard rushes. Against the Browns, Baltimore attempted 19 rushes withplayers moving at the snap and ran for 98 yards with four 10-yard rushes inthose plays.

It should not be understated what the Ravens offense did againstCleveland, whose defense entered the game ranked first in points per gameallowed (10.7), yards per play (3.2), Total QBR (23), and yards per dropback (3.5). In addition, Cleveland’s 163.7 yards per gameallowed entering Week 4 were the fourth-least through three games in the SuperBowl era.

Pittsburgh’s usually vaunted defense recorded zero sacks andzero takeaways against the Texans while getting gashed for 451 yards. Itlooks like Mitchell Trubisky will start in place of the injured Pickett this week,and we do not have faith in a Steelers offense that has had 22.5% of itspassing plays result in a first down or touchdown, the lowest rate in theleague, per Sharp Football Analysis.

$1,000 First Bet on Caesars

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Ravens vs.Steelers best odds

Ravensbackers have many options, as three of our best sportsbooks offer a spread of-3.5 at a standard price of -110.

Given how frequently this AFC North rivalryis decided by three points, we would not put anyone off looking into thealternate spread and dropping the line to -2.5, though it is slightly cheaperto do so at BetMGM (-150) than at Caesars (-157).

Ravens vs.Steelers odds

Allof our best sports betting sites reached a high of Baltimore -4.5 earlier in the week,but Steelers backers would not let it get higher, as they drove the number downfrom there. Early spread wagers are 68/32 in favor of the Ravens despite theunderdog covering the spread in each of the last seven games between these teams.

BetRiversis the only sportsbook offering a total of 37.5 for this game, while FanDueland DraftKings are on the high end at 38.5. The O/U has plummeted from a highof 40.5 at most shops on Monday morning. This movement is likely a mix of thenews that Pickett would miss the game and the early betting splits being nearly3/1 (73/27) in favor of the Under.