Sportsbook Operators Weigh in on Handle Record, Early Odds, Largest Liability for Super Bowl LVIII

Sportsbook trader says 'it’s safe to expect records might be set handle-wise this year,' as Super Bowl heads to Vegas.

Records are made to broken, and Super Bowl LVIII could certainly be the one to do it. 

The NFL’s title bout on Feb. 11 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas features two teams bettors are familiar with. The Kansas City Chiefs versus the San Francisco 49ers is a rematch from Super Bowl LIV. Sports betting wagers are up across the U.S.  

Las Vegas being the host site for the first time has people believing the Nevada handle record of $180 million set in 2022 is ready to fall.

“When you have the next-door neighbor (49ers) coming in for the Super Bowl and the game being in Las Vegas, it’s safe to expect records might be set handle-wise this year,” Adam Pullen, Caesars Sportsbook assistant director of trading, said Monday. 

Chiefs getting the money

The early line had several of the top U.S. sportsbooks making the 49ers a 2-point favorite, but that line didn’t last long as the Chiefs, who have played in three of the last four Super Bowls, brought that number down to +1 as the popular underdog.

“Going into the week we set lookahead lines that had the 49ers as a 3-point favorite against the Chiefs,” Pullen said. “Judging by what transpired (Sunday), we shortened the 49ers a bit given their recent defensive struggles, and the Chiefs looking dominant in Baltimore shutting down the Ravens. At the end of the day, it comes down to the eye test. In a reverse scenario, maybe we are back to -3 with the 49ers.” 

The Chiefs are getting 70% of the bets and 78% of the handle at BetMGM while 86% of the moneyline wagers and 83% of those bets are on Kansas City, which opened at +115 and moved to +100 at both Caesars and BetMGM. 

“The early action is showing a steady stream of money the Chiefs’ way, resulting in us going to -1 49ers within the first hour,” Pullen said.

Large liability 

Las Vegas and online sportsbooks around the U.S. aren’t just gearing up for the big game. They’re also counting future tickets.

Before Sunday’s AFC and NFC championship games, BetMGM said the Detroit Lions had the highest ticket percentage (13.6) and were the largest liability to win the NFL title. The 49ers eliminated that problem Sunday, but San Francisco had the second-highest number of tickets (9.2%) at BetMGM. On top of that, the 49ers hold 16.3% of the remaining handle. 

“The 49ers are BetMGM’s biggest remaining liability to win the Super Bowl,” Tristan David, BetMGM senior trading manager, said. “Even though early action is on the Chiefs as underdogs, the sportsbook is cheering for a Kansas City victory.” 

San Francisco opened the season at +900 to win the Super Bowl, according to BetMGM. That dropped to +225 before the playoffs and +145 heading into the NFC Championship. The 49ers are now -120 to capture their fifth Super Bowl and first since 1994.

Coming off a title last season, Kansas City was +600 to start the year and still +350 before going on the road and upsetting the Baltimore Ravens for the AFC Championship.

Early total

The total opened at 47 points, and after a surge of over bets, crept up a half-point. The over is getting 82% of the wagers and 90% of the handle at BetMGM. 

At Caesars, the total opened up at 48 points and actually dropped to 47.5. Before last year’s over between the Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles, the under had hit in four consecutive Super Bowls. 

The Chiefs went under against the Ravens (17-10) while the over easily hit in San Francisco’s 34-31 win over Detroit.