Sportsbooks see sharp money on underdogs in NFL Week 6, but favorites are cashing for public bettors
LAS VEGAS — The NFL team that has been favored by the most points every weekend has not only secured the outright victory but also beaten that prodigious spread, too.
Those squads are 5-0 straight up and 5-0 against the number this season.
Westgate SuperBook executive vice president Jay Kornegay says that’s been a special little sting they feel on his side of the counter, since Joe Public always favors favorites (to win outright) and moneyline parlays.
“There’s something to it,” he says. “That’s always a game that will get a lot of public attention. That’s true, to a certain level.”
Last season, according to SuperBook numbers, each week’s teams that was favored by the most points unofficially went 15-2-1 straight up but only 5-13 ATS.
So since ’22, the week’s biggest favorites are 20-2-1 simply to win. Just remember, this business guarantees nothing.
Baltimore Ravens (3-2, 3-2 ATS) vs Tennessee Titans (2-3, 3-2 ATS)
- 9:30 a.m. ET Sunday, Oct. 15
- Wembley Stadium, London
- Ravens -4, Total 41
We’re still shocked that the Titans recorded only 68 passing yards and 26 on the ground in a Week 3 belting at Cleveland.
QB Ryan Tannehill had 36 yards taken off (via five sacks) his 104 passing yards. Tailback Derrick Henry ran 11 times for 20 yards. He has hit triple figures only once this season, with 122 in a victory over Cincinnati.
When Henry scampers for triple-digit yardage, the Titans are 27-7.
Meanwhile, Baltimore features the league’s stingiest defense, yielding a mere 0.219 points per play; and the Ravens have only improved (at 0.196) over their past three games.
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Seattle Seahawks (3-1, 3-1 ATS) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-3, 1-3-1 ATS)
- 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Oct. 15
- Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati
- Bengals -3 (Ev), Total 45
Any NFL team winning on the road impresses Kornegay, so that would be the case if the Seahawks were to pull this off.
“But the Bengals, as you know, have been pretty tough to figure out. It looked like they were ready to fold up the tent last week, then they put a complete game together.
“This came out three, and some sharp money took the three, [but] it isn’t a very strong, opinionated sharp play.”
Cincinnati was 1-3 and in a tight one at halftime in Arizona last Sunday when QB Joe Burrow and the Bengals secured a 34-20 victory.
He threw three TD passes to Ja’Marr Chase, two in the second half, and registered at least 300 aerial yards (317) for the first time in five games this season. Maybe that calf tweak is improving.
Keep an eye on DeeJay Dallas, the Hawks’ speedster who leads the league with an average kickoff return of nearly 27 yards.
Indianapolis Colts (3-2, 3-2 ATS) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-2, 3-2 ATS)
- 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Oct. 15
- TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Fla.
- Jags -4, Total 45.5
In rare early-week sharp movements, Kornegay saw cash come in on the Colts +5.5, slipping this to 4.5, and it lost another half-point by mid-week.
Indy lost its opener, 31-21, at home to the Jags but has won three of four and can avenge that first game and take the AFC South lead in Jacksonville.
In those three triumphs, Zack Moss, a fourth-year tailback from Utah, has totaled 375 rushing yards and three TDs, with a scoring catch.
San Francisco 49ers (5-0, 4-1 ATS) at Cleveland Browns (2-2, 2-2 ATS)
- 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Oct. 15
- Cleveland Browns Stadium, Cleveland
- Niners -7, Total 37
From kickoff on, a steady 50% chance of rain and 17-mph winds are forecasted.
Browns QB Deshaun Watson (bruised right rotator cuff) remains limited in practice, and Cleveland brass is going in another direction with its reserve thrower.
Rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson had three passes intercepted and fumbled once in an ugly 28-3 home defeat against Baltimore two weekends ago, so Cleveland announced that PJ Walker will likely start against San Francisco.
Walker, 28, is a 5-foot-11, 215-pound product of Temple. In three seasons at Carolina, he went 4-3 as a starter. In 15 total NFL appearances, he’s hit 58 percent of his throws for 1,461 yards, five TDs and 11 picks.
Second-year Niners QB Brock Purdy, meanwhile, continues to weave a gilded career. He’s 10-0 as a starter, completing nearly 70 percent of his attempts for 2,645 yards, 22 TDs and four interceptions.
The SuperBook’s summer lines had posted Niners -1, which had moved to -3 in its look-ahead figures last week, “before they demolished Dallas,” Kornegay says. Hence, the big move to 7.
The Browns’ defense is tops in the league at yielding a paltry 3.9 yards per throw to opposing quarterbacks at home. Overall, they have the fourth-lowest ground yield of 72 yards.
San Francisco has dropped its past three games in Cleveland, losing by an average of 22-10.
Detroit Lions (4-1, 4-1 ATS) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1, 3-1 ATS)
- 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Oct. 15
- Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Fla.
- Lions -3 (-120), Total 43.5
The only game of the week pitting two teams alone in first place of their divisions has seen scant action at the SuperBook since it set lines on every game in June.
The Lions have won their past three games in Tampa by a 25-20 average.
Bucs QB Baker Mayfield has completed nearly 70% of his throws for seven TDs and two picks among his 125 attempts. Chris Godwin (14 catches, 64 yards a game) and Mike Evans (12, 84, 3 TDs) are his favorite targets.
Philadelphia Eagles (5-0, 3-1-1 ATS) at New York Jets (2-3, 3-2 ATS)
- 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Oct. 15
- MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J.
- Eagles -7, Total 41
On defense at home, the Jets’ yield of 0.266 points per play rates seventh-best. They’re in the top third, allowing 6.1 yards per throw.
The Jets tallied a season-high 234 rushing yards and two TDs in their 31-21 triumph in Denver last weekend. Breece Hall dashed for 177 of those yards and a TD.
The second-year tailback out of Iowa State opened the season with 127 rushing yards in an overtime victory over Buffalo, and his first triple-digit yardage game arrived last season in a win in Green Bay.
Philly, meanwhile, allows 3.2 yards per run to opposing tailbacks on the road, the fourth-lowest yield in the league.
“I know the Eagles escaped one, getting by Washington, but they’ve really looked good when they’ve wanted to look good,” Kornegay says. “They seem like they’re doing what they should be doing, cruising through, staying healthy.
“And they’ll make sure they’re playing their best ball at the end of the year. I don’t feel like they’ve gone into their fourth or fifth gears, yet.”
New York Giants (1-4, 0-5 ATS) at Buffalo Bills (3-2, 3-2 ATS)
- 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, Oct. 15
- Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, N.Y.
- Bills -14, Total 45
The Giants trek to the Western edge of the Empire State every eight years, and they’ve won their past three games in Orchard Park by an average of 11 points.
However, one computer ranking has the Bills rated No. 2, the Giants in the basement at 32nd.
Giants tailback Saquon Barkley (high-ankle sprain) hasn’t played since Week 2 and was limited in practice Wednesday. In two games, he has totaled 114 rushing yards and a TD.
New York coach Brian Daboll sounded optimistic that QB Daniel Jones would play against Buffalo. He left Sunday’s game against the Dolphins in the fourth quarter with a neck injury, but he progressed through the week.
In five years as a starter, Jones is 59-58. He’s never played against Buffalo. Of course, his primetime record (1-12) is well documented. Four of those past five spotlight defeats were by 25-point averages.
Dallas Cowboys (3-2, 3-2 ATS) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-2, 2-2 ATS)
- 8:15 p.m. Monday, Oct. 16
- So-Fi Stadium, Inglewood, Calif.
- Cowboys -2.5, Total 51
When the SuperBook unveiled its complete lined NFL schedule in the summer, the Chargers were favored here by 2 points.
It completely flipped to Dallas when this week’s lines were revealed, and by Wednesday it had crept a half-point more in the Cowboys’ favor.
In addition, Kornegay spotted professional money come in at the SuperBook on Over 49, and again on Over when he and his crew moved it to 50; it hit 51 Thursday morning.
He says, “So some sharps are on that Over.”
The Chargers’ dynamic tailback Austin Ekeler said Tuesday he’s “99 percent” sure he’ll play against Dallas.
In L.A.’s season opener, 117 of his 164 total yards came on the ground, where he scored once in a 36-34 home defeat against Miami. A bum ankle kept him on the sidelines.
In ’22 and ’21, all he did was tally 3,195 total yards and 38 TDs in 33 regular-season games.
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