Top NHL picks January 23: Bet on the Blue Jackets in Gaudreau’s return to Calgary

It’s a skinny NHL slate tonight, and we’ve got one pick for each of the non-Maple Leafs matchups.

The pregame narrative: The Florida Panthers and New York Rangers have hit the over regularly against each other, and we think that trend will continue tonight. Also, the Buffalo Sabres and Columbus Blue Jackets are worth a lot on underdog spreads.

Find our top NHL picks for January 23 below.

Odds as of 12:20 p.m. on 01/23/2023.

NHL picks

Best Bet: FLA/NYR over 6.5 goals (-117)

Tonight’s matchup between the Panthers and Rangers is a battle of styles, as Florida is one of the better overs teams in the league and New York frequently hits the under.

Florida has hit the over on this number in five of seven games over the past two weeks, scoring 4.3 goals per game in that span. New York, meanwhile, has hit the under four times in a row.

Something has to give. With the Rangers seemingly turning to backup netminder Jaroslav Halak, we expect the Panthers’ high-scoring tendencies to win out.

Consider the distinct difference between Halak and reigning Vezina Trophy winner Igor Shesterkin:

Halak’s numbers actually looked much worse before his two most recent starts, when he stopped 41 of 43 shots (.953 SV%) in wins over the lowly Canadiens and Blue Jackets.

Those are bottom-five scoring teams in the league, though, and Florida will give Halak a much tougher test.

Key stat: Florida and New York hit the over on this line in each of their past four games, including a 5-3 Rangers win on New Year’s Day (with Halak in net).

Quick picks

Sabres +1 - regular time (-134): The Sabres have been playing some of their best hockey of the season lately, and it makes sense to give ‘em a goal in tonight’s road matchup.

Buffalo is 6-3-1 on this spread in its past 10 games, touting a 53.6% expected goal share in that span (sixth in the NHL).

Dallas, on the other hand, has fallen short of this line in six of its past 10 games and has a more modest 51.2% xG share in that time (14th in the NHL).

Blue Jackets +2.5 (-139): No, we don’t have any plus-money NHL picks for you today... but the juice on this one isn’t so bad when you consider how much cushion this line provides.

Columbus won outright, 3-1, when it hosted Calgary back in December. And the Blue Jackets have covered this line five times in a row (as well as seven of nine).

The Flames have only covered a 2.5-goal spread in three of their past 14 games.