Tuesday College Basketball Sharp Report
Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Tuesday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 2:30 p.m. ET.
In the meantime, let's examine where respected money is leaning for Tuesday's College Basketball slate...
VCU (16-6) just saw their six game winning streak come to an end, falling to St. Bonaventure 61-58 and losing outright as 11.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Davidson (10-11) has lost five of their last six games and just fell to Saint Louis 74-70, failing to cover as 2.5-point home dogs. This line opened with VCU listed as a 2-point road favorite. Sharps aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They've steamed VCU up from -2 to -3. VCU is receiving 68% of bets and 73% of money, signaling both Pro and Joe support. VCU is 7-2 in conference play. Davidson is 3-6. Both teams are scoring roughly 70 PPG on offense. The difference comes on defense, with VCU allowing 63 PPG compared to 69 PPG for Davidson. Ken Pom has VCU winning by one point (68-67). He has VCU ranked much higher (78 vs 140).
Kansas State (18-3, ranked 7th) has won three of their last four games and just beat Florida 64-50, covering as 4.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, Kansas (17-4, ranked 8th) just snapped a three game losing skid with a 77-68 win over Kentucky, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Kansas listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. The public thinks this line is way too high and 66% of bets are taking the points with Kansas State. However, despite this lopsided betting we've actually seen the line move further to Kansas -6.5 to -7. This signals smart money fading the trendy dog and laying the points with the contrarian home favorite. Ken Pom has Kansas winning by seven points (76-69). Kansas has buy-low value as a "bad" ATS team (8-13) against a sell-high "good" ATS team (16-5). Kansas is 10-1 at home this season. Kansas State is 3-3 on the road.
UNLV (14-7) has won two straight games and just took down Nevada 68-62, covering as 1.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Colorado State (10-12) has lost three straight games and just fell to Boise State 80-59, failing to cover as 8-point road dogs. This line opened with Colorado State listed as a short 1.5-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this line speaks volumes. Why is a 10-12 team favored over a 14-7 team? Shouldn't it be the other way around? Currently 60% of bets are taking the points with trendy UNLV, yet we've seen the line move further to Colorado State -1.5 to -3. This signals smart money laying the points with the fishy contrarian home favorite. Colorado State is only receiving 40% of bets but 74% of money, a sharp bet discrepancy. Colorado State has the edge in shooting (49% vs 45%). Colorado State is 7-4 at home. UNLV is 2-3 on the road. Ken Pom has Colorado State winning by one point (74-73). Colorado State is -140 on the moneyline.
