UFC 286: Gaethje vs Fiziev Betting Analysis and Prediction

For the second time in the month of March, we get a massive event on the UFC schedule. Along with a welterweight championship trilogy fight, we get to watch two of the most dangerous lightweights in the UFC this weekend. Justin Gaethje is taking the risk and fighting the great Rafael Fiziev in the co-main event slot in this London event.

Read further for a deep dive into this matchup, along with a Gaethje vs Fiziev prediction, after breaking down the betting analysis and preview. Learn more about this fight with us before you make any big bets on UFC 286.

Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev Information

Justin Gaethje vs Rafael Fiziev

Location: The O2 Arena, London, England.

Date and Time: March 18, 2023. 5 PM ET.

Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev Last Fight Record

Gaethje is coming off his second title shot in his UFC career, losing to Charles Oliveira via first-round submission.

Fiziev beat the legendary Rafael dos Anjos last July by KO in the 5th and final round of their main event bout.

Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev Betting Analysis

Justin Gaethje Facts to Know

They don’t call Gaethje “The Highlight” for no reason. He has given MMA fans some of the craziest performances in the last decade. He has an incredible 19 total KO victories out of his 23 wins total; he has also been finished in all four of his losses. The guy fights with absolutely no fear.

Gaethje’s striking numbers in the UFC are ridiculous because there aren’t any other fighters that look like it on paper. He averages 7.46 significant strikes landed per minute and 7.85 significant strikes absorbed on average in that minute. 

Rafael Fiziev Facts to Know

Fiziev has made a name for himself with his mix of intelligence and power in his striking. He will switch stances and give his opponents tons of different looks while in striking exchanges. Much like Gaethje, Fiziev has a very high rate of finishes, with 10 of his 13 professional fights ending inside the distance. 

Fiziev has a high-volume style of striking where he puts himself in danger, much like Gaethje. He averages about 4.8 significant strikes landed and absorbed per minute inside the octagon. He uses a much more calculated approach than his opponent does this weekend.

Updates

No injuries were reported to the London Athletic Commission.

Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev Betting Preview

UFC odds have former two-time title challenger Justin Gaethje as the +190 betting underdog for this weekend’s matchup against the -225 Fiziev. These are interesting odds knowing how dangerous Gaethje is at any moment in the octagon.

Quite frankly, anybody would have a pretty good argument with putting Gaethje as the favorite with his knockout power, durability, and even the All-American wrestling he has in his back pocket. 

Fiziev is a guy that has kind of come out of nowhere in the lightweight divisions over the last few years. After getting KO’d back when he started his career on the prelims, Fiziev has slowly put on incredible performances and has earned his way to a top-contender bout in arguably the toughest division the UFC has to offer.

It is tough to make a Gaethje vs Fiziev prediction with these odds and how close the matchup truly is. Let’s talk about how this fight could potentially play out with these two killers in there.

Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev Betting Prediction

When making UFC predictions, make sure you take all the time needed to break down everything from the styles to the recent performances of both athletes. 

After looking at the analytics and recent performances put together by these two men, my official Gaethje vs Fiziev prediction is for Fiziev to get his hand raised.

Even though Gaethje continues to sharpen his tools and master his craft with one of the best striking coaches in MMA, Trevor Whittman, he is still such a wild card with the way he fights. 

Fiziev is going to be able to collect all the data he needs in the first round, check and counter the calf kicks from Gathje, and find the fight-finishing shot before the final bell sounds.

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