UFC Fight Night: Paul Craig vs. Andre Muniz Betting Analysis
The next UFC Fight Night event is coming this weekend from London, England, where you are guaranteed a great night of fights. One of the key fights to watch will be this middleweight bout between Paul Craig and Andre Muniz. Craig is making his debut in the middleweight division and will be looking to make a run at the title with a big win.
Read more for a betting analysis of this bout, along with the official Craig vs. Muniz prediction, before making your bets this weekend.
Paul Craig vs. Andre Muniz
Location: O2 Arena, London, England
Date and Time: July 22, 2023. 3 PM ET main card start
How to Watch: ESPN+
Craig is coming off a tough first-round TKO loss to Johnny Walker earlier this year.
Muniz is looking to bounce back from a submission loss to Brendan Allen in February.
Craig is a 35-year-old Jiu-Jitsu fighter out of Scotland. He has a professional record of 16-6-1, with all 16 of his wins coming from a finish, including 13 submissions. He is making his debut at the middleweight division after successfully completing a trial run at making the weight during his time away from the octagon.
The top-10 light heavyweight contender averages 2.44 significant strikes landed and 2.88 absorbed per minute in the octagon. His main weapon is his submission skills, where he usually tries to pull guard and win fights from his back. He averages 1.81 takedowns per 15 minutes and 1.7 submissions.
Muniz is a 33-year-old Brazilian fighter with many of the same fighting styles as his opponent this weekend. He is 23-5 in his professional MMA career, with an incredible 19 finishes, 15 of which are via submission.
The submission artist is a top middleweight contender still and will need this win to continue his rise to bigger fights in a division that’s seemingly wide open. Muniz averages low striking numbers like Craig, with 2.12 significant strikes landed per minute. But his strength comes out in his 2.95 takedowns per 15 minutes.
No injuries have been reported to the UFC.
Before getting to the Craig vs. Muniz prediction, let’s take a look at the available UFC odds for this exciting middleweight matchup. Muniz is coming in enemy territory as the -210 betting favorite. Craig is the +180 underdog coming off of back-to-back losses.
The under 2.5 round total is favored at -220. This means that oddsmakers think that this fight will end well inside the distance–both of these men are submission specialists and don’t really ever go to a decision in their past bouts. Craig has a 100% finish rate.
You can get Craig at increased odds if you have him winning inside the distance at +300, even though his money line is only +180.
From a technical standpoint breaking down this fight, you can look at it as both of their grappling abilities cancel each other out, and Muniz sticks out as the better fighter with his striking. In Muniz’s last fight, he surprisingly outstruck Allen but ultimately got submitted.
Making a UFC pick on this middleweight bout is very difficult because there are so many unknowns involved in the process. How will Craig look at a lower weight? Will he be stronger and better than he was at 205 lbs?
After breaking down all aspects of this bout, the official Craig vs Muniz prediction is that Muniz will get his hand raised on Saturday. It’s tough to pick against Craig when he fights in the O2 Arena, but the smart bet is with Muniz.
If you are unsettled in this pick, take Craig inside the distance at +300 and make it your one long-shot bet of the night if Muniz plays the grappling game, that gives Craig a much higher chance of pulling off an upset win.
- Pick: Craig to win inside the distance.
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