UFC 293: Tai Tuivasa vs Alexander Volkov Picks and Predictions

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08 September 2023

UFC 293: Tai Tuivasa vs Alexander Volkov Picks and Predictions

Alexander Volkov is the heavy favorite for this bout against Tai Tuivasa, and our UFC betting picks are siding with the books. Volkov's 80-inch reach will stir up trouble for his challenger, eventually leading to a KO/TKO stoppage.

Tai Tuivasa returns home to face off against the dangerous Alexander Volkov in an explosive undercard match between two Top-10 heavyweights on UFC 293 from the Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia.

Tuivasa hopes his two-fight skid will end, and his hometown crowd will leave happy, while Volkov looks to keep his faint hopes of a title shot alive.

UFC odds have Volkov as the favorite at -245, and Tuivasa as a +200 underdog. Here are my free picks for Tuivasa vs. Volkov at UFC 293 from Sydney.

Tai Tuivasa vs Alexander Volkov fight odds

Tai Tuivasa vs Alexander Volkov method of victory odds

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Tai Tuivasa vs Alexander Volkov picks

Fight prediction: Volkov ML

In Tai Tuivasa's previous two homecoming fights, he couldn’t escape the second round as Sergei Spivak submitted him, and Junior Dos Santos stopped him. Although he rebounded with a four-fight win streak against nominal opposition, recent losses to Ciryl Gane and Sergei Pavlovich were conclusive enough to rightfully lower our expectations.

Volkov, standing tall at 6-foot-7 with an 80-inch reach, is a refined striker with a strong track record against elite opponents. While he may never be a champion, Volkov has a better track record, with losses only coming against the top tier of the division. Volkov showcased his skills with a pair of first-round KO wins in his last two bouts against Jairinzho Rozenstruik and Alexander Romanov.

Tuivasa is likely to struggle to get inside Volkov's reach and might absorb jabs and body kicks in his attempts to land a significant strike. Volkov's experience, superior technique, and recent form make it challenging for Tuivasa to do anything other than rely on his punching power. When Volkov faces one-dimensional opponents like Tuivasa, he tends to turn out exceptional performances.

All signs point to the favorite getting the win. Tuivasa’s slightly negative differential in significant strikes doesn’t bode well against a methodical striker like Volkov.

Prediction: Volkov moneyline (-245 at DraftKings)

Fight best bet: Volkov by KO/TKO/DQ

Though Tuivasa possesses dynamite in his fists, it will take more than one clean shot to take out Volkov. The Russian will tower over Tuivasa, keeping him on the long end of his jab, and should be able to pick him apart as Tuivasa charges forward.

Things could start getting ugly as soon as the midway point of the first round. Volkov is too smart to get dragged into a brawl with Tuivasa, especially as he has sufficient tools to make him pay every time he tries to initiate his offense. That said, Volkov should be cautious as he chips away at Tuivasa’s legs and body to compromise his gas tank in the first round.

As Volkov continues to land and grow confident, Tuivasa will get desperate, turning this fight into a one-sided slog, and I feel Volkov will get his third straight knockout win to continue his resurgent run.

Pick: Volkov to win by KO/TKO/DQ (-105 at DraftKings)

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Tai Tuivasa vs Alexander Volkov betting preview

Tai Tuivasa is coming into this fight having lost two straight to Ciryl Gane and Sergei Pavlovich via knockout. The last time Tuivasa lost twice in a row, he rebounded with four straight knockout wins. Volkov proved he’s still a force to be reckoned with after consecutive first-round knockout wins of Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Alexander Romonov.

Volkov is a methodical striker who has stalked the top of the division for some time. He towers over Tuivasa physically and boasts excellent striking statistics landing 4.89 significant strikes per minute at 57% accuracy. The Russian has 24 stoppage wins and an average fight time of 12 minutes and 54 seconds.

Tuivasa remains the No. 6-ranked heavyweight despite the totality of his recent losses. Thirteen of his 14 wins have come inside the distance, and he has extraordinary one-punch power. The Sydney native averages six minutes and 41 seconds in fight time, though tends to go out on his shield with three one-sided stoppage losses to his name.