Tuivasa vs Volkov Prediction & Picks (UFC 293): Don't Expect a Long Fight

bettingnews.com

06 September 2023

Tuivasa vs Volkov Prediction & Picks (UFC 293): Don't Expect a Long Fight

It’s fight week as UFC 293 is set to go down on Saturday, Sept. 9, live from Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia. For anyone looking for a hard-hitting brawl, you’re going to love the heavyweight co-main event where Tai Tuivasa goes one-on-one with Alexander Volkov.

When it comes to the heavyweight rankings, these beasts are neck and neck. Tuivasa heads to Australia as the division’s No. 6-ranked fighter while Volkov is right behind him at No. 7. So, which competitor will move up the rankings once the smoke clears?

This article contains everything you need to know heading into the Tuivasa vs Volkov showdown, including the latest odds, a matchup preview, and the best bets you can make.

UFC 293: Tuivasa vs Volkov Odds

Moneyline

Tai Tuivasa (+210)
Alexander Volkov (-250)

Will the Fight Go the Distance?

Round Total

Over 1.5 Rounds (-115)
Under 1.5 Rounds (-115)

Tuivasa vs Volkov Tale of the Tape

Tai Tuivasa — Alexander Volkov

Record: 15-5 — 36-10
Height: 6’2” — 6’7”
Reach: 75” — 80”
Weight: 264 lbs — 250 lbs
Age: 30 — 34
Fighting Stance: Southpaw — Orthodox
Knockouts: 13 — 24

Tuivasa vs Volkov UFC 293 Preview

The above odds point to Volkov finding more success at UFC 293. BetOnline is favoring him at -250 moneyline odds to beat Tuivasa this weekend, carrying an implied win probability of 71.4%.

Volkov, a former M-1 Global Heavyweight Champion, has been a force since the second he stepped foot in a UFC octagon. The 34-year-old veteran has gone 10-4 since beginning his run, which includes racking up six knockout victories.

After submitting to Tom Aspinall in the main event of UFC on ESPN+ 62, Volkov is back to his winning ways.

He’s coming off back-to-back TKO victories over Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Alexander Romanov, finishing both men before the first round was even at its midpoint.

Meanwhile, Tuivasa is trending in the opposite direction. After an impressive five-fight winning streak, “Bam Bam” was left lying on the mat in his two latest bouts, suffering knockout losses to Ciryl Gane and Sergei Pavlovich in three months.

Furthermore, Tuivasa hasn’t fought since last December, leaving time to tell if he’ll look rusty in his return to the cage.

Even if he feels fine, Tuivasa won’t be able to upset Volkov easily. After all, “Drago” has a five-inch advantage when it comes to both height and reach. He also has better cardio, highlighted by his average fight time of 12:54 compared to the underdog’s 6:41.

And although both heavyweights know how to hit hard, Volkov is more accurate (57% vs. 49%) with better defense (53% vs. 45%). That’s without mentioning he’s the better wrestler who should be able to take advantage of the fact that Tuivasa only has average takedown defense.

UFC 293: Tuivasa vs Volkov Betting Trends and Markets

Unless you’re confident that there’s going to be an upset, there isn’t much of a reason to bet on the Tuivasa vs Volkov moneyline. Fortunately, sportsbooks like BetOnline have a wide variety of markets regarding the UFC 293 co-main event.

For starters, BetOnline isn’t projecting this fight to last long, favoring that it won’t go the distance at -325 odds. It isn’t too surprising given that only two of Volkov’s previous seven fights went the distance while each of Tuivasa’s last eight outings failed to reach the time limit.

Assuming there is a finish, Volkov is favored to win by KO/TKO (+125). Again, this is far from shocking considering that 24 of his 36 career victories stem from knockout finishes, including four of his last five wins.

If you’re looking for an even bigger win, BetOnline’s round + method market favors Volkov winning by first-round KO/TKO (+425). Of his 24 knockout wins, 17 occurred in the opening frame.

On the other hand, if you’re confident in a Tuivasa upset, the hometown hero is most likely to win by KO/TKO at +225 odds. He’s one of the hardest hitters in the sport today, proven when tallied five consecutive knockout wins in a 16-month span.

At the same time, it’s worth noting that Volkov hasn’t been knocked out since his fight against Derrick Lewis back in October 2018. Needless to say, it’s going to take a lot if Tuivasa is to succeed.

Tuivasa vs Volkov Prediction & Picks for UFC 293

In what should be an entertaining bout, I’m taking Volkov to win. He’s the more versatile fighter with several physical advantages and has already handled tougher opponents. He’s also 7-1 as the favorite in the UFC, whereas Tuivasa is 1-3 as an underdog.

I’m also taking Volkov winning by first-round KO/TKO (+425) as the best bet. Tuivasa is coming off two straight knockout losses with the latest being in Round 1. With 70.8% of Volkov’s knockout wins coming in the first round, I see him putting Tuivasa to bed early.