UFC Fight Night: Molly McCann vs Julija Stoliarenko Picks and Predictions

All the steam is on underdog Julija Stoliarenko, but our UFC betting picks won't be swayed. Molly McCann should prove best in front of her home crowd, and betting on the method of victory could ensure the best betting value.

Molly McCann vs. Julija Stoliarenko is on the main card for UFC Fight Night betting on July 22. This is a weak matchup for a co-main event, with neither fighter near the Top 15 of the women's flyweight rankings, but McCann is a fan favorite in the UK and had highlight-reel knockouts in the previous two events in London.

Oddsmakers expect her to win again as UFC betting lines opened with McCann as a -400 favorite, but money has poured in on Stoliarenko with McCann now priced at about -210. Here are my best free UFC picks and predictions forMcCann vs. Stoliarenko on Saturday.

Molly McCann vs Julija Stoliarenko fight odds

Molly McCann vs Julija Stoliarenko method of victory odds

Molly McCann vs Julija Stoliarenko picks

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Molly McCann vs Julija Stoliarenko betting preview

Molly McCann will try to bounce back from a first-round submission loss to Erin Blanchfield. That defeat snapped a three-fight winning streak for "Meatball" Molly, who defeated Kim Ji-yeon by unanimous decision in 2021 before knocking out Luana Carolina and Hannah Goldy in a pair of events at the O2 Arena last year. 

The former Cage Warriors flyweight champ has compiled a 6-4 record in the octagon. She's a pressure fighter with strong boxing ability, but her subpar ground game has been exposed in all four of her defeats in the UFC. 

Julija Stoliarenko is fresh off a first-round knockout loss at the hands of Chelsea Chandler last October. This will be Stoliarenko's first bout at flyweight. She lost by split decision as a featherweight at TUF in 2018, which derailed her first attempt at a UFC contract.

She dropped down to 135 pounds following that defeat and built herself up at smaller promotions, eventually winning the vacant Invicta bantamweight title in 2020. That earned her another shot in the UFC, but she has gone just 1-4 since returning to the promotion. 

With a black belt in BJJ, Stoliarenko is a grappling specialist. Nine of her 10 career wins have been by submission, with all of those coming by way of armbar. 

Molly McCann vs Julija Stoliarenko tale of the tape

Molly McCann vs Julija Stoliarenko UFC prediction and best bet

Fight prediction: McCann

McCann was definitely way too big of a favorite when this line first opened. She simply isn't good enough to be a -400 favorite against any veteran fighter, let alone someone like Stoliarenko who could expose her poor grappling.

That said, it's easy to see that Dana White and the UFC are trying to give McCann layup fights in front of her home crowd, and Stoliarenko's only path to victory is by hunting for that armbar. 

Stoliarenko is just 1-5 in the promotion and her only win in the octagon came against Jessica-Rose Clark, who is just 2-5 in her last seven bouts. Stoliarenko has a takedown accuracy of just 25% with just three total takedowns across six UFC bouts. If she can't take this fight to the mat, she'll be pieced up by McCann's superior boxing. 

McCann was overvalued at -400, but -210 is a much more reasonable price for her. 

Prediction: McCann moneyline (-210 at bet365)

Fight best bet: McCann by knockout (+175)

One of the biggest questions about this fight is how Stoliarenko will look at flyweight. She used to compete in BJJ competitions at 152 pounds and has spent her entire MMA career at featherweight and bantamweight. Her last bout against Chandler came at a catchweight of 140 pounds, and when she was first expected to fight Julia Avila in 2021, she fainted on the scales after cutting to 135. 

Stoliarenko did look good on the scale on Friday, weighing in at exactly 125 pounds with a smile on her face, but I'm still skeptical about this cut. Even if she looks fine on the scale, she will likely still be drained and could be chinnier than usual.

That's not good against an aggressive striker like McCann, who picked up knockouts in her last two victories. McCann might not be able to land another highlight-reel spinning elbow but she has plenty of pop in her hands as well. We could see her overwhelm Stoliarenko with punches on Saturday. 

Pick: McCann by KO/TKO (+175 at FanDuel)