UFC Fight Night: Paul Craig vs Andre Muniz Picks and Predictions

Paul Craig may be an experienced fighter but considering he's coming down to fight at the lightest weight of his career, our UFC Fight Night picks think his opponent will have the advantage — read more below.

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

It’s the battle of the BJJ specialists when Andre Muniz welcomes Paul Craig to the middleweight division in a featured undercard match on this weekend’s UFC Fight Night card this Saturday, July 22, from The O2 Arena in London.

UFC odds favor Muniz to bounce back as a -210 favorite. Former light heavyweight contender Craig is debuting as a middleweight and does so as a +180 underdog.

Muniz and Craig are dangerous submission artists, but doubt lingers on how ready Craig will be to fight at the lightest weight of his career.

Only one BJJ master will have their hand raised in victory, so let’s see how I’m calling the Craig vs. Muniz action before the showdown at the O2 Arena.

Craig vs Muniz fight odds

Craig vs Muniz method of victory odds

Craig vs Muniz picks

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.

Best UFC bonuses

If you’re signing up for a new sportsbook for UFC betting, here are two of the best bonuses* available:

B) Get a 20% profit boost on any UFC bet every week at Unibet! Bet Now

best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

Craig vs Muniz betting preview

Muniz is widely regarded as one of the top BJJ specialists at middleweight, but he had no answers for Brendan Allen in his last fight. Though Muniz is no worse for wear after losing to a fighter on the upswing, he remains a respectable submission artist going up against an opponent who is planning to test him on the ground. 

Allen outsmarted him on the ground, and Muniz will have to contend with another smart grappler plus a size advantage against Craig. If this is about who will get to the ground first, chances are that Muniz and his 2.95 takedowns per 15 minutes will win that battle. Compared to Craig, Muniz defends better against strikes as well.

Craig won’t be any faster at 35, fighting at the lightest weight of his career. Muniz should be able to test Craig’s gas tank with his creative submission attempts and superior striking, and might succeed in taking him to the ground. A fast start would work wonders for Muniz, especially as all four of Craig’s KO losses have come via strikes in the first round. 

Back-to-back losses against Volkan Oezdemir and Johnny Walker led Craig to take a backward step in his career. Despite being ranked inside the Top 10 at light heavyweight, and a win over ex-champ Jamahal Hill, the Scotsman is looking for a new lease on life at 185 pounds. He's looking to get right into the thick of it against the reeling Munoz.

Craig possesses a black belt in BJJ and has a lot of experience against elite opposition. His 1.7 submission attempts per 15 minutes have bailed him out of bad situations many times throughout his career. However, Craig doesn’t have respectable striking or takedown strategies, opting to hit the ground and fish for submission, even if he’s in a bad spot.

The “Bearjew” is a one-dimensional fighter whose entire game plan revolves around his submissions. Muniz will essentially be coming right to him, which normally would be a favorable situation. However, a weight cut and his less-than-stellar defensive credentials might make it a tough night.  

Craig vs Muniz tale of the tape

Craig vs Muniz UFC prediction and best bet

Fight prediction: Andre Muniz ML

Muniz will have an advantage in striking, and his own BJJ skills make it an even fight if it gets to the ground. So much revolves around Craig cutting weight, and I don’t see how he’ll cut to 185 without losing some of his endurance.

Either Muniz strafes him early, or this becomes a technical BJJ match, but Muniz gets the win either way.

Prediction: Andre Muniz moneyline (-210 at DraftKings)

Fight best bet: Andre Muniz to win by decision

Though Craig tends to get hit and hurt more often, Muniz is going to be wary of engaging him on the ground.

If Craig was already showing he was getting punished without the payoffs of a surprise submission then, a compromising trip down the scales on the wrong side of his 30s isn’t going to help.

I expect Munoz to jump right on Craig, but things might slow down, and he’ll settle for a decision. 

Pick: Andre Muniz to win by decision (+330 at DraftKings)