UMass vs. Penn State: Odds, predictions, props and best bets

Betting on Penn State has been a great way to make money for nearly a full calendar year now. It’s been 364 days since the last time the Nittany Lions failed to cover, a streak that spans 12 games and includes five ATS victories in 2023.

But the streak might be in jeopardy this week, not because of the opponent’s strength, but because of other circumstances. Everyone expects this to be one-way traffic, as Massachusetts enters on a six-game losing streak. But with the trip to Ohio State looming next week, Penn State coach James Franklin probably won’t care much about style points against the Minutemen.

Given that college football betting sites think this will be decided by halftime, the Nittany Lions might play backups early and often to get starters rested for the Buckeyes. If they do, the huge spread could open the door for a Massachusetts backdoor cover.

You can find these odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. Similar odds will be available at other Pennsylvania sportsbooks, so make sure you’ve got the best odds before placing a wager. PennLive customers can also receive $200 in bonus bets with a $5 wager plus no-sweat same-game parlay bets every day.

This game screams a potential trap as far as spread betting is concerned. The Nittany Lions know they don’t need their best game to beat the Minutemen and they’re likely to treat this like a preseason NFL game. The starters will play only as long as necessary to put the game away, as Penn State doesn’t want to risk an injury.

Massachusetts was supposed to have an easier time with things once they faced FBS opponents. That hasn’t happened, as the Minutemen keep getting routed in the opening 15 minutes. Over the past five weeks, Massachusetts has been outscored 65-7 in the opening quarter.

The Minutemen do have a workhorse back in Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams and a strong pass catcher in Anthony Simpson, but the line cannot provide much protection. Quarterback Carlos Davis got injured against Miami-Ohio, and backup Taisun Phommachanh has been sacked 10 times since taking over.

Pundits are already looking ahead to October 21 in Columbus, which shows just how underwhelming a matchup this is. Penn State has hardly been scratched this season, winning every game but Illinois by at least 20 points.

With plenty of rain expected in Happy Valley on game day, the Nittany Lions will want to get this finished early to prevent risking injury on a field that could become progressively worse as the day goes on. UMass’ terrible run defense means Drew Allar probably won’t be asked to do much throwing.

The total has already dropped from 58.5, so don’t wait too long to back the under here. Penn State hasn’t allowed more than 15 points to anyone, so the books are expecting the Nittany Lions to do most of the scoring. Odds are, that won’t happen in the rain with the reserves.

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If you want to make a spread play on this game, the best move is to make it a first-half play and get out. Given Massachusetts’ poor play in the first quarter, that might prove even better, but a first-half play makes a lot of sense. DraftKings is one of the few sportsbooks offering this market.

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