Indiana vs. Penn State: Odds, predictions, props and best bets

The dream of a college football playoff appearance took a major hit last weekend when Penn State (6-1) lost to Ohio State (7-0). With their main goal now likely unattainable without outside help, can the Nittany Lions cover a massive number against Indiana (2-5)?

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Indiana and Penn State have met on the football field 26 times since 1993. In those 26 meetings, Penn State has come out on top in 24 of them. Indiana has never gotten a win in Happy Valley. Despite last week’s loss to Ohio State, Penn State is still ranked as a top 10 team in the country. On the other side, Indiana has lost its four Big Ten games by a combined score of 150-41.

There was hope that this season would be different for Penn State. The belief around the country was that this team could go into Columbus last week and beat the Ohio State Buckeyes. A Big Ten championship was a realistic goal for this squad. Unfortunately, with last weekend’s loss, that dream will require a bunch to go right. Most importantly, Penn State will need to win out. Penn State should win this game easily, but the question is will they be in a letdown spot and struggle to achieve the margin necessary to cover 32 points?

In terms of winning the game outright on the field, Indiana’s only hope would be that Penn State fails to show up. However, when handicapping this game, we’re giving Indiana 32 points. Brendan Sorsby got all the quarterback snaps against Rutgers last weekend and he completed under 50% of his passes for just 126 yards. The defense hasn’t performed any better, giving up 126 points combined in their last three games against Maryland, Michigan, and Rutgers.

We don’t think Indiana will have much success moving the ball against Penn State. Few teams do. At the same time, it is natural to be worried about a potential flat spot for the Nittany Lions after their excruciating loss last weekend. Getting up there to cover the big number is asking a lot unless they are extremely motivated to move past last weekend. We can easily see this being a 35-3 type of game.

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As we mentioned above, we forecast a game where the under might be a good bet. It would not at all be surprising to see Penn State come out of the gate slowly. A noon kick against a bad opponent coming off a tough loss isn’t a situation where most teams come out flying. We could check the halftime score and see Penn State struggling in a 10-0 type of game before breaking some runs and causing some turnovers in the second half to increase their margin.

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Game Prediction: Penn State 35, Indiana 3

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