Why a Juan Soto trade to the Yankees makes sense
NASHVILLE — One of the most accomplished and durable young left-handed hitters in baseball history is available because the San Diego Padres need to save money and probably cannot afford to pay him when he becomes a free agent after the 2024 season.
One of the more storied franchises in sports is coming off a disappointing season in a stretch of disappointing seasons defined largely by the team’s inability to balance out an oft-injured lineup that had far more right-handed power than it could secure from the left.
Juan Soto, who has proved himself capable of transforming a lineup on his own, could provide the New York Yankees with exactly what they need to make their lineup steadier and more balanced. They should not miss the chance to let him.
The Yankees and Padres have been talking about a potential deal for Soto, according to reports. So far, the Padres’ asking price — reportedly seven young players, or more people than it took the Padres to acquire Soto and Josh Bell from the Washington Nationals two summers ago — has been too high for the Yankees. Soto is, at this point, a one-year rental. Not wanting to empty the farm system is understandable.
But the Padres need affordable starting pitching for their big league roster and could use some depth in the minors, too. The Yankees have it in Clarke Schmidt, Michael King, Randy Vásquez, Jhony Brito and others. Few teams can consider starting pitching expendable, and after Luis Severino signed a free agent deal with the New York Mets, the Yankees certainly could use some depth. But they are pursuing 25-year-old Japanese ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto and have reason to bet on a bounce-back season from last year’s free agent prize, Carlos Rodón.
What they do not have is a quick fix for an aging, unbalanced lineup that probably needs to be overhauled by a front office under pressure to win now. Fixes such as those are hard for any team to find, and they are particularly difficult to unearth in the Bronx, where more than one established star has faded under the scrutiny. But Soto has, in a limited sample, thrived in New York as an opponent. To the extent that it is relevant, he has a .339 average, 1.165 OPS and 11 homers in 33 career games at Citi Field, home of the Mets. And asked if he has any concerns about his former pupil handling the pressure of New York, Nationals Manager Dave Martinez did not hesitate.
“No,” he said Monday at MLB’s winter meetings, as a half-dozen Yankees reporters crowded in to ask that very thing.
“The first time I ever met him, I just asked him, ‘What motivates you?’ ” Martinez said. “… The first thing he says: ‘I love baseball. That’s all I want to do.’ So I think he’ll handle [New York] very well.”
More importantly than all that, Soto owns a 1.219 OPS in seven career games at Yankee Stadium despite hitting to a .133 batting average on balls in play during those appearances. And crucially for the Yankees, who have not harnessed the advantages of their short right field porch in recent years, he has hit four homers in seven career appearances at Yankee Stadium — and for a player who some evaluators think has been too patient at times during his Padres career, too willing to work a walk, that short porch could provide incentive for him to be a little more aggressive. Of course, the line between trying to do too much and making the most of his once-in-a-generation eye is a fine one.
But that is a problem for a later time. The more pressing hurdle for the Yankees, at least in terms of their willingness to pay what the Padres seek, is that Soto, who is represented by Scott Boras, becomes a free agent after this season. He and Boras, memorably, turned down a Nationals extension offer of . Boras was firm then, and has been since, that Soto is a special player deserving of a bank-breaking, if not record-breaking, deal. So any team acquiring him for next year will probably have to confront the reality that he could depart after next season.
For a team such as the Seattle Mariners, who some have suggested might be a fit for Soto after they offloaded Eugenio Suárez, Evan White, Marco Gonzales and Jarred Kelenic over the past few weeks with the stated purpose of clearing payroll, that concern would be very real. They do not know if Soto would like playing there. They have never given a contract that big before. The Toronto Blue Jays, who could use some power in the outfield, have reportedly expressed interest in Soto, too. But they are also facing the prospect of their two homegrown stars, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, hitting free agency after the 2025 season. Could they pay them and Soto? Would Soto want to play for them?
The Yankees have not been as free-spending in recent seasons as they used to be. And Soto, who has struggled at times defensively and seems likely to age into a designated hitter role at some point during the later years of any megadeal, would be one of many offense-first outfield/DH types on their roster. Giancarlo Stanton is under contract through at least 2027 and has such a lengthy injury history that he seems likely to need the designated hitter’s spot for the bulk of his tenure. Soto, therefore, might lock the Yankees into the same kind of roster issues — namely, a logjam of less mobile sluggers — that have plagued them in recent seasons. But they are also the Yankees, which means they have a history of spending that suggests they would be able to pay Soto long term and offer the kind of stage that might make him want to sign there long term.
But more importantly, the Yankees have reason to believe that Soto could make them much better right away, addressing needs they have struggled to deal with for years now and spit them out into a memorably tense offseason that has already included one hour-long, expletive-riddled Brian Cashman rant about his team’s viability. Acquiring Soto would help them make a statement. Pairing that acquisition with that of an elite starter such as Yamamoto could help alter their trajectory and the narrative. Hitters like Soto are not available very often. The Yankees certainly have had a hard time finding one recently.
