Yankees vs. White Sox: Oddsmakers Still Taking Bets Despite Air Quality
As Canadian wildfires continue to impact weather conditions in the Northeast, sports betting operators continue to take some bets.
Major League Baseball games are taking the brunt with intense smoke and air quality concerns forcing the postponement of several contests. On Wednesday, both Yankees vs. White Sox and Phillies vs. Tigers failed to get underway, with the former scheduled for a doubleheader on Thursday.
As for Phillies-Tigers, the series finale will feature on Thursday at 6:05 p.m. ET.
Yet, amidst the weather uncertainty—smoke movement already forced the postponement of Nationals vs. Diamondbacks on Thursday—there’s little impact in the sports betting world.
Betting odds at online sportsbooks are largely the same for the first part of the Yankees vs. White Sox doubleheader on Thursday. The Yankees are priced at -140 on the moneyline for Thursday’s first game at BetMGM Sportsbook compared to -115 on Wednesday.
As for the over/under, little movement has occurred. The total for the first game of the doubleheader is set at eight runs, juiced -115 to the under. On Wednesday, oddsmakers listed the total for Yankees-White Sox at 8.5 runs, juiced to the over.
Most of that line movement can be attributed to the Yankees’ failure to name a starter for Wednesday’s game. On Thursday, Luis Severino was tabbed to pitch for the hosts with the White Sox sending Wednesday’s scheduled starter Lance Lynn to the mound for Game 1.
Betting on Climate-Impacted Games
If you’re intent on betting Thursday’s games, there are a few things you should know, both from a betting and bookmaking perspective.
Kevin Roth, a sports meteorologist for RotoGrinders, advises bettors to consider air quality as just one factor amongst many others. In other words, sports gamblers should be cautious estimating the smoke’s impact on gameplay.
“All of the things you usually look at still matter,” Roth said. “The smoke is just another added weather variable … but don’t treat it as if it’s going to have a massive impact.”
Still, there are a few betting angles for these games with pronounced weather conditions. Predominantly, factors like high winds or smoke could lead to slightly lower scoring, thus generally informing bets on totals finishing under.
“If they do play in some of the smoke, that smoke is slightly more dense than typical clear air,” Roth explained. “In theory, if the smoke was relatively thick, but still low enough that they played through, that could lower home runs and, in turn, lower scoring overall.”
On the other side of the counter, some bookmakers make adjustments for games with adverse weather conditions—like smoke—and believe the uncertainty can benefit the bettor.
“Uncertainty is good for bettors who have an opinion,” said Jeff Benson, director of operations at Circa Sports. “The harder something is to price for a bookmaker, the better it is for the bettor.”
unusual weather conditions can lead to more meaningful line movement, allowing bettors to follow sharp action.
Duane Colucci, a race and sports manager at the Rampart Casino in Las Vegas, added that these types of games can sometimes lead to sharper line moves.
“The sharps (professional handicappers) will definitely bet the way they feel the outcome is going to be and stay consistent,” Colucci said. “If you see massive total moves, then we have to start really microscoping … and make the adjustments quick.”
Beyond those factors, Colucci notes that bettors should continue to operate as if games are going forward. In the event of a cancellation, bettors receive their wager back or, if it’s part of a parlay, see the legs reduced by one.
“As long as you feel confident in your selection, I would just continue as if it’s business as usual,” Colucci said.
