10 Red Wings predictions for 2024: Moritz Seider’s next contract, Patrick Kane stays, more

As 2024 begins, it’s remarkable how different the Detroit Red Wings look from just one year ago.

Yes, the team finds itself in a similar position as it did last January, coming off a disappointing December and facing an uphill climb to the playoffs. But would you have guessed at this time last season that Filip Hronek would be traded? That Alex DeBrincat would be a Red Wing? Or Patrick Kane, for that matter? How about that a Detroit team that struggled for years to find the back of the net would, on Jan. 4, 2024, be the fifth-highest-scoring team in the NHL?

It’s certainly not all roses, as the Red Wings have merely opened up a new host of problems, but it’s a good reminder of just how unpredictable this game can be. Which is precisely why we all try so hard to do just that.

So, with a new year upon us, it’s time for some predictions on what 2024 will hold for the Red Wings.

1. Alex Lyon finishes the 2023-24 season with the most starts of any Red Wings goalie

Ville Husso started 56 games for the Red Wings last season, and all indications entering this season were that he’d approach that number again. Even with Detroit signing Lyon and James Reimer this offseason, the idea was for Husso to be the team’s No. 1 and for Lyon and Reimer to ensure he didn’t get overworked in the same manner he did last season.

After 38 games, though, Husso has only started 17 games, compared to 10 apiece for Reimer and Lyon (plus one for Michael Hutchinson). Some of that is due to Husso missing time for the birth of his first child and, more recently, due to injury — all of which is understandable. But it’s also been impossible to ignore that Lyon has, on many nights, looked like Detroit’s sturdier goaltender. Even if Husso returns from his current injury in the coming weeks, Lyon will at least have the opportunity in the interim to get hot and make a case for a prominent role going forward.

Admittedly, this prediction could look dumb in a matter of weeks if Husso returns quickly and can regain some of the form he seemed to be finding before getting hurt. And certainly, his $4.75 million contract gives the Red Wings ample incentive to give him every opportunity to do so.

But Lyon has shown enough to believe he will continue to push for playing time through the second half, and adding in Husso’s health question makes this one feel entirely possible.

2. Detroit makes another push … but misses the playoffs again

This one, of course, isn’t bold at all. The Red Wings have missed the playoffs in seven straight seasons, after all, and while there was a flicker of real hope in late November that this could be the year, the last month has put them in a tricky spot yet again.

It looks like it’s going to take at least 95 points to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference, and to hit that mark, the Red Wings would need to play at a .625 points percentage over the final 44 games. For context: That’s the Toronto Maple Leafs’ current points percentage.

I do believe the Red Wings have another push in them, much like they made last season. And if that push can come soon enough — there’s no time like the present, especially in a brutal January schedule — they can change that math enough to give themselves a reasonable path. But ultimately, they’ve been streaky all season, and their sloppy play of late makes it difficult to believe they can sustain winning streaks without a rebound effect the other way.

Year 8 of no playoffs looks imminent, as does another possibly deflating trade deadline sell-off, too.

3. The Red Wings keep, and extend, Patrick Kane

After all the worry about how he would look returning from hip resurfacing surgery, Kane wasted little time getting back to being an offensive difference-maker. That his arrival coincided with Detroit’s drop-off is an unfortunate coincidence, but Kane himself has consistently left his mark on games with 13 points in 14 games so far. And on a cheap, one-year deal, questions about whether he could be dealt as quickly as he arrived in Detroit are inevitable.

But the bet here is that Kane stays put. He has a no-trade clause, for one, but frankly I would have a hard time seeing Detroit move him without his blessing regardless. He chose Detroit, the Red Wings wanted him, and he’s playing well for them in a big role.

So, instead of a trade, why not an extension?

Detroit has money coming off the books this summer, with David Perron and Daniel Sprong pending UFAs up front, and at 35, Kane won’t be commanding an especially long-term deal. The cap hit will be fascinating, especially if Kane keeps producing at this rate, but on a short deal, the Red Wings can afford to splurge a bit for a player of Kane’s talent. I’ll say he sticks around for two years at a cap hit around $5-6 million.

4. Detroit trades Jonatan Berggren or Elmer Söderblom

Last season, both Berggren and Söderblom were sources of real optimism for the Red Wings. The 6-foot-8 Söderblom made a surprise run to claim a spot on the opening night roster at just 21 years old, and Berggren spent the vast majority of the season in Detroit, putting up 15 goals in the process. Neither was a future star, but both looked like they could be legitimate NHL regulars, and possibly soon.

Nearly three months into this season, though, they’ve played a combined nine games for Detroit, all of which have been Berggren in injury call-up situations. Söderblom, meanwhile, has been lackluster in Grand Rapids with just three goals and 12 points in 25 games.

Berggren’s name has already popped up in some trade rumors, and while that certainly feels possible — his 20 points in 20 AHL games give credence to the idea he needs an NHL opportunity, but Detroit already has plenty of small, skilled wingers on their roster — Söderblom could be just as interesting a change-of-scenery candidate. His rare physical toolkit, with great hands at that size, is something most teams don’t have in their system.

A potential trade deadline sell-off in Detroit could open up some late-season ice time for these two, but with the more well-rounded Carter Mazur also on the way along with first-round picks Nate Danielson and Marco Kasper, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Detroit look to trade one of Berggren or Söderblom, either in-season or in the summer.

5. The Red Wings draft a defenseman in the first round

After the way things were going a month ago, I realize nobody wants to hear about the draft. I also know picking in the 10-13 range (as of Wednesday night, Detroit would sit 13th) doesn’t leave as much room to daydream as those picks in the top eight used to.

But midway through this season, the 2024 draft class actually looks pretty compelling, even in that 13th-pick range. And that’s mainly because it is especially deep on the blue line. There are some big-time names expected to go early, such as Michigan State’s Artyom Levshunov, London’s Sam Dickinson, and Russia’s Anton Silayev, but even beyond those three, Denver’s Zeev Buium, Czechia’s Adam Jiricek and Calgary’s Carter Yakemchuk are very intriguing potential top-four defenders. And while defenders are always in hot demand come draft day, the volume of blueliners in this class makes it entirely possible one of the latter three could fall to Detroit.

Obviously, it’s hard to do too much mock drafting without a draft order, but the Red Wings could certainly continue to bulk up on the right side of their future blue line, and this looks like a great year to do so.

6. Moritz Seider extends for eight years, $8.7 million annually

It’s been an interesting contract year for the Red Wings’ franchise defenseman. On one hand, Seider is a core cog on a Red Wings team that has, collectively, regressed defensively — and naturally, as the No. 1 defender, he has been part of that with some mistakes and forced plays. On the other, he’s continued to produce, and despite playing a staggeringly tough workload, his on-ice expected goals share is actually the best of his young career (47.82 percent, according to Evolving Hockey). In many ways, that’s a reflection of the team: improved, especially offensively, but with some drawbacks defensively that make it hard to define.

Zoom out to the big picture, though, and there’s still no question Seider is Detroit’s blue-line pillar for years to come. And as other young defenders such as Jake Sanderson and Owen Power continue to nudge up the market value, the Red Wings would be wise to lock Seider up for as long as possible now before the price goes any higher.

As it stands, his statistical profile already makes it hard to imagine him getting less than Power’s $8.35 million AAV (on a seven-year deal). So, how about a matching deal to the one Dylan Larkin signed last spring, tying him for the highest-paid player on the team and setting a de facto internal cap? With the cap expected to go up for the foreseeable future, it’s crucial Detroit locks Seider in long-term now.

7. Lucas Raymond extends for seven years, $7.25 million annually

Raymond’s contract year, on the other hand, is easy to sum up. After a down sophomore campaign, Raymond has been one of the Red Wings’ best players all season, producing at a career-best rate, using his improved strength to win more battles, and being much more consistent overall. He looks like a top-six fixture for years to come. And really, the Red Wings should be trying to lock him up for as long as possible, too.

The cost to do that, though, will be significant — Cole Caufield just signed for eight years at a $7.875 million AAV last summer, and while Caufield’s goal-scoring track record is stronger, his career points per game entering the contract was virtually identical to (and actually slightly below) Raymond’s to date. The cap going up gives reason to believe Raymond could command in the neighborhood of $8 million on an eight-year deal.

Matt Boldy’s seven-year, $7 million AAV deal, however, stands out as a more favorable comparable for Detroit — and on a seven-year deal, Raymond could become a free agent before he turns 30.

A bridge once felt like the way this one would end, and that still can’t be ruled out — especially with Detroit’s cap getting a bit more crowded. But Raymond looks like he’s becoming the player the Red Wings drafted him to be, and with their contention window still seemingly a couple years away, locking in a price now would serve them well.

8. Shayne Gostisbehere’s departure paves the way for Simon Edvinsson

Gostisbehere has been an impactful addition for the Red Wings, running their top power play for most of the season and ranking as their fourth-leading scorer so far. But Detroit is going to have to free up cap space for these extensions somewhere, and Gostisbehere is on an expiring $4.125 million contract. That makes him a natural candidate for a deadline deal this spring or to depart in free agency this summer, even though his offense has been a big boost to Detroit’s lineup.

While there could be some temptation to extend him for those reasons, the Red Wings have already overcrowded their blue line to the point that Edvinsson, their top prospect, has been blocked, and Gostisbehere makes sense as the player who could go to make room for him. In addition to the expiring contract and the fact both are left-handed, Gostisbehere is probably the biggest risk-taker among Detroit’s current blue line — and while it pays off in a big way sometimes, the Red Wings are inevitably going to have to balance some of that with Edvinsson, as well.

Gostisbehere has been a success story for Detroit this season, and it might not be fair to see him as the long-term odd man out on those merits. But the circumstances do make him look like the most logical choice right now.

9. Carter Mazur is in the 2024 opening night lineup

Mazur missed the early part of this season with an injury, but he’s back now, and lately, he’s heating up. He has six points in his last six games, and five of those are goals. Just as importantly, Mazur has shown throughout his career that he can be trusted in defensive situations, and he brings a physical element the Red Wings’ scorers lack currently.

Add that all up, and the bet is Mazur gets a call-up late this season and then works his way into the opening night picture for 2024-25 in a top-nine role.

10. Trey Augustine establishes himself as the team’s top goalie prospect

This one might already be underway already, especially as Augustine continues a strong showing at the world juniors for Team USA.

Sebastian Cossa is progressing, and this isn’t to write him off by any means. Certainly, goalies take all kinds of routes to the NHL. But Augustine has looked the part so far, both in his record-setting draft year at the U.S. NTDP and now with a strong freshman season at Michigan State. The world junior success only underscores it.

This prediction is more abstract, as I don’t believe Augustine will be turning pro and directly challenging Cossa in 2024 (or maybe even 2025). But as the year continues, my pick is that by the end of 2024, Augustine’s continued progress will have him looking like the consensus top goalie prospect in the Red Wings system.

(Top photo of Moritz Seider: Rick Osentoski / USA Today)