Red Wings free agency, reason for optimism and a 2030 prediction: Mailbag, Part 2

Part 1 of my April mailbag published Friday, you can find it here. For Part 2, I get into more offseason decisions, optimism and a prediction. No need to delay, let’s get to it.

The Wings have two juniors near the top in their respective league scoring. How do they project at the NHL level?— Mark W.

Mark is talking about 2022 fourth-round pick Amadeus Lombardi and undrafted free agent signing Alexandre Doucet, who have produced well this season in the OHL and QMJHL, respectively. But to me, they’re pretty different cases.

Lombardi was a late bloomer affected by the COVID-19 shutdown who is 19 (he’ll turn 20 this summer) and only in his second OHL season. Doucet is 21 and in his fourth year in the “Q.” Both are having tremendous seasons, but as junior production goes, you expect significantly more each year.

Even with Lombardi, whom I quite like as a prospect, the other players around him on the OHL scoring leaderboard are fellow mid-round picks of around the same age. The key is his traits, headlined by outstanding skating, clear skill, and compete that will play no matter the role.

Doucet is not that kind of skater, and while he does have more size at 6 feet, that means there’s a lot more resting on his production to carry him. And it’s a lot harder to know whether that will translate. So to me, they’re in different categories as prospects right now, but I’m certainly looking forward to getting an up-close look at Doucet at development camp.

The free agency class is weaker than usual. How much will this affect the trade activity that usually occurs around the draft? Could Toronto look to move a star player to create space to resign Matthews or Nylander? Tough to keep their big 4 together after next season. — Nick B.

It could affect it, for sure, with teams perhaps more desperate to pay up in trades. But there’s usually trade activity around the draft regardless, and I’d expect this year to be no different. I love the Toronto angle to Nick’s question because William Nylander has been so good that it’s hard to imagine Toronto being able to afford both him and Auston Matthews in the same offseason.

That said, I was shocked to see the John Tavares deal has only two more years on it after this one — a big-money free-agent deal that the signing team is going to survive! — and maybe that will enable the Leafs to keep all three of Matthews, Nylander and Mitch Marner long-term. But if the Leafs do lose in the first round again this year, some kind of shake-up feels inevitable. And while Matthews would be a pipe dream, Nylander would be an outstanding target for Detroit … and just about anyone who could use a big-time scorer. So it feels like a long shot, but hey, I love the thought.

What do you think of the chances that Pius Suter is retained? — Rick P.

I think the chances are decent, and if I were Steve Yzerman, I’d make it a priority. Suter’s versatility is huge. He can play as a down-lineup center in a checking role. He can play up the lineup as a winger. He’s an excellent penalty killer, does more damage around the net than you’d think for his size and has an overall savvy to his game. Basically, whatever you need, he can do it. And that’s a valuable piece.

What steps do we need to see Lucas Raymond take next year to continue his path to a true top line player and not just another decent top 6 winger— Landon K.

Honestly, I think the main thing is just time. He could get a little stronger, for sure. He should shoot more. And like most young players, he can be more consistent.

But Raymond’s talent is so evident that the next steps mostly feel like a matter of time to me. It’s just hard to see that kind of skill and sense not finding a way to produce, just as he did as a rookie. It wouldn’t shock me if he breaks out in a big way next season, threatening 70 points.

If you want something actionable, I’d probably go back to just shooting more. Would you have ever guessed that his shooting percentage is actually up this season from last? It is, and that’s because his shot totals are down considerably. I’d like to see him above three shots on goal per game next year.

As a layman i.e. a Red Wings fan for 20+ years but in the UK, should I be optimistic? *I* think so, but a lot across the pond seem to think this year of seeming progress to me is a sign of us being trapped in the “mushy middle.” Should I continue staying up until the early hours?!— Adam E.

For me, the “mushy middle” thing is a valid fear but not yet a huge problem for the Red Wings. There do seem to be some fans who think you can’t spend any time between the lottery and the conference finals without it ruining your future, but I don’t think that reflects reality.

You have to be careful not to sit in the middle too long, but if we’re being honest, are the Red Wings even in the middle now? They’ve bounced between the eighth and 12th best odds of late, and while they’re currently at the back of that grouping, they still fit in a lot closer with those teams than they do the ones actually in the league’s middle: Calgary, Nashville and the Islanders.

To me, progress for a rebuilding team is a good thing. It means the players you’re bringing in are actually good. And while the Red Wings of course have to add more elite talent, we’re still only seeing the debuts of some of their top prospects. It’s going to take time for those players to be difference-makers, but I think it’s still perfectly fair to be optimistic long-term — even if it’s taking longer than I might’ve expected.

I can’t tell you how to spend your late nights or early mornings, obviously. But to me, one of the most interesting parts of covering a rebuild is watching it take shape from the ground up — seeing the puzzle all come together, as well as developments you never would have imagined. The frustrating part, of course, is how long it takes. But if you’re still enjoying the progress of this season, which has been quite the roller coaster day-to-day, I would think that’s a good indicator that you’ve got the stomach to see it through to the payoff.

Between Simon Edvinsson, Elmer Söderblom, Moritz Seider, Sebastian Cossa, Magnus Hellberg and William Wallinder who wins a game of limbo— Prashanth I.

This one generated quite the debate on Twitter, but I have to cosign @AdzyHoy’s reply, which was “Hellberg. Can the others butterfly?” Going with the goalie feels like a slam dunk.

Hi Max, first time long time, do you want to go to some Tigers games this summer? Also, please predict the red wings 2030 lineup. Thank you!— A.K.

I do indeed want to go to some Tigers games this summer!

As for the 2030 lineup, I feel like I’m being set up to fail here for some reason. But give me:

• First line: Colby Barlow (2023 draft) – Larkin – Raymond
• Second line:Cole Perfetti (future UFA) – Kasper – Ryan Leonard (2023 draft)
• Third line: Rasmussen – A 2025 draft pick to be named later – Carter Mazur
• Fourth line: A (future) former St. Louis Blue – Joe Veleno – A beloved veteran chasing a Stanley Cup
• First pair: Simon Edvinsson – Moritz Seider
• Second pair: William Wallinder – Carter Yakemchuk (2024 draft)
• Third pair: Someone who is currently 15 – Someone Anthony Mantha will fight in 2026
• Starting goalie: Sebastian Cossa

And if I get more than seven of these names right, somebody owes me a postgame beer from Harry’s in October 2030!