105.7 The Fan's Jeremy Conn Shares Tips For Betting On The NBA

105.7 The Fan’s Jeremy Conn recently chatted with PressBox about his favorite NBA futures bets, the best way to attack the board every night during the season and more.

This has been edited for content and clarity.

PressBox:What futures bets do you like prior to an NBA season?

Jeremy Conn: The futures bets I would look for are more team-oriented, the team that I thought was going to be much better than maybe the public thinks or if there’s a team that everybody’s high on that I’m not that high on. You can look at a couple of those teams that really did well in the offseason, and there are still some things that are going to happen. We’re watching players get traded. It kind of worries me sometimes betting futures because I don’t feel that I have as much of a grip on that and some things are out of your control.

I think I’m talking out of both sides of my mouth, but there are times you’ll look at something and go, “I don’t know that anybody else can win but him.” At times, that does happen. I think future awards are fine, but I don’t go too crazy in it. If you’re going to drop a $25 or $50 bet, great, and you always have a chance of cashing out, too. I know people like to bet on their own teams or their favorite teams to win championships, and sometimes those things work out.

PB:Which under-the-radar teams do you like for a possible futures bet?

JC: I’m a Mavericks fan and I’m bullish on them because every time nobody’s talking about them, that’s when they make a run. I think they can be really good with Kyrie Irving and Luka Dončić. They grabbed some defensive pieces in the offseason and tweaked some things as well. I think that’s a team that’s really interesting because when they get in the playoffs, it’s all about superstars. I think Luka’s the best in the game, so that’s one that I would look at that I think is fairly sneaky.

And then when we look at some of the other teams, to me the Pelicans are a team that I really like. Imagine if they can stay healthy and they have the full allotment that they have there. That’s a team that could make a deep run. Those are teams that I’m intrigued by. Ultimately, though, when it comes down to it, I think it’s going to be really hard to beat the Suns out West, and we have to see what this Nuggets team looks like a year removed from the championship.

PB:How do you prefer betting on the teams that you’ve identified?

JC: I always like [to bet on teams] to make the playoffs or win their division. You can look at how the divisions are stacked up, but also realize that in the NBA, strange things happen. Teams will try to get rid of contracts. Players get hurt, miss extended periods of time. That can affect it. We’ve seen that happen multiple times. Those are the ones I’d rather bet on — or even winning a championship. We can talk about how many great teams there are, but there are probably five or six we can narrow it down to that are actually going to really have a shot. If somebody else surprises us, so be it because we probably wouldn’t have had that at the beginning anyway.

PB:Is it worth placing futures bets on regular-season stat leaders?

JC: When we think about a guy that’s going to average 11.7 assists per game, I think that’s going to be a hard number to beat in this league. You’ll see guys like Tyrese Haliburton fill it up, and he’s probably going to lead the league in assists unless somebody surprises us. When you start thinking about rebounding, you can get to the limited amount of guys that you really think are going to be at the top of that list, names like Rudy Gobert. You’ll start to look at your guys that continuously get double-doubles — Nikola Jokić, players like that who are going to fill that up. I think some of those are fun bets and good bets to make. I prefer them being [averages as opposed to totals]. If you get those, then obviously they have to play a certain amount of games. We’ve all talked about it with load management and all the different things that happen. With some of these vets, they’re hard to bet on.

PB:What is the best way to attack the board every night during the NBA season?

JC: For me, it has to do with pace of play and looking at possessions and different things. There are all different types of ways where you can create metrics or go to sites that allow you to do that, to see what’s working — or certain statistics if you’re using algorithms. I’m not trying to get too far in the weeds with the numbers stuff, but when you start thinking about possessions per game or pace of play, that’s when you know shots are going to be put up. And then also, because you’re moving faster, we get more fouls, and that means we get more free throws. I think a lot of people don’t pay attention to that stuff.

[When I give] totals on games, it’s because I know how many shots are going to go up. It doesn’t mean we’re not going to see an off shooting night where weird things happen in the game and the game goes under. I’m constantly looking for an edge, and I think the edge you can get is in pace of play. That’s something that I focus in on when I’m looking at the NBA. And then I always say this: I always look at where the money is going. It’s the most important thing to me because I don’t like aligning myself with the public because I think they’re wrong more times than they’re right.

PB:What are the best websites to sift through when contemplating a bet?

JC: There are a lot of different sites you can go to. I do like FantasyLabs for NBA, because you do want to check lineups and see starting lineups. The NBA’s a sport that I don’t like to bet early in the day and try to beat a line unless it’s a team I trust. I’m not going to bet the Clippers early in the day with how much they bench their players — or the Warriors or the Sixers or whoever. I like RotoGrinders. I use them quite a bit. There are some other sites, consensus reports and different things you can get from Action Network.

And then I always use my daily fantasy sites — RotoGrinders is one of those, Run Pure Sports. There are a bunch of really good ones out there. I gather as much information [as possible] from all of them. I don’t let anything necessarily sway me if I’ve made my decision on games, but it can take me off of a game and not make me flip. There’s not something ultimately that I’m going to see and go, “Oh my God, I’ve got to be on the opposite side of this,” when you put that much work in, but you can find little nuggets that’ll take you off games and hopefully save you some money.

PB:How can readers get involved with conncretelocks.com?

JC: Right now, it’s $14.99 a month. They get my full card. They actually get to see my betting slip every single day. The only thing that we sell separate is the Conncrete Lock of the Week. That’s my favorite NFL play of the week, but we have specials and all that stuff as well. You can buy yearlong packages where you can save money. There are all types of options, but I’m posting cards on there every single day.