Spencer Schultz Shares Tips For Baseball Futures Bets
Spencer Schultz, whose favorite plays can be seen every day on PressBoxOnline.com, recently shared his tips for placing futures bets ahead of Opening Day, the best way to attack the board during the regular season and more.
All odds are as of mid-February.
PressBox:What baseball futures bets do you like to place?
Spencer Schultz: Two years ago, Ronald Acuña Jr. had a 36.5 home run total mark, and he was [recovering from a torn ACL]. I thought that he was supposed to miss at least the first six weeks of the season, minimum. That was the consensus. I thought that was bananas. How is he going to hit more than 36 home runs if he misses six-plus weeks minimum to start the season? I try to see if there are any of those weird lines that are health-related. Another example is futures on team totals. The Orioles last year were one of the greatest values I’ve ever seen — 76.5 wins. If you think there’s a young, up-and-coming team that has a really low total, why not bet on that? That happens every single season. There are multiple teams that surge. I think that trying to look at the perennial contender team totals is a little bit futile. I find that Vegas typically does a great job there. Stolen base marks are another one that I love.
PB:What up-and-coming teams do you like in 2024?
SS: Right now, I think the division to look at is the AL Central. Looking at division winners in the AL Central, the Twins are -140. I think the Royals and Tigers could be teams that do start to surge a little bit, so look at those with division winners. In terms of win totals, I like those two teams as well. The Reds are a young, surging team. They’re 81.5, which might be OK for them, but they’re not in a super strong division so I like that one a good bit. Other than that, maybe the Pirates at 75.5. They showed a little bit of gusto last year and have some guys coming up. And I do think the Nationals are a sneaky one — 66.5 is a super low total. They have been biding their time, finding pieces and I could see them performing a little bit better, so I really like the Nationals there.
PB: What’s the best way for bettors to zero in on certain plays without getting overwhelmed by the board on a typical day during the regular season?
SS: I think you like to start out with known commodities. You like to start to look at the board and gauge players that you know year after year are going to be able to produce [like Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Mike Trout] — guys that when they’re playing and they’re healthy, they’re a threat. See if they can get on base. That’s where I like to start the year out. I like to look at total bases per game, do little parlays there. We’re talking Dodgers in this example — Freddie Freeman three-plus total bases, Mookie Betts two-plus total bases. Things like that can get you into plus money, and those things happen a lot so I like to start to look there.
Then I’m going to start to try to locate those young teams that have a lot of inexperienced guys. I think they typically have less efficient performances. I’m going to go look to a young team — I mentioned the Nationals — and I’m going to expect them to strike out a lot. I’m going to expect their pitching staff to not go very far. I’m going to expect inefficient starts from younger guys, and I’m going to expect inefficient at-bats from younger guys. Over time, guys are going to reduce their strikeout numbers, hopefully, and increase their walk numbers. When you can find those younger teams to start the season, I kind of like to pick on them a little bit.
… Try to find that value when players start to surge. Who is going to be a young player that is taking the next step? Vegas is not going to move quickly on them, typically. It happens in every sport. In the NFL, Amon-Ra St. Brown I think is an example of a guy that was clearly going to be dominant. Vegas did not want to put him up in that Tier 1 wide receiver category. His props were not up in the 90s until halfway through the season. Try to identify young talent that looks like it’s legitimate and balanced and get to it before Vegas starts to take the value away.
PB:What do you like to bet on every day during the season?
SS: I really like props a lot. I really like total bases, home runs, pitcher strikeouts. Those are my everyday plays. … I do think the pitcher-batter matchups historically, when you start to see somebody have 10, 20 at-bats against a certain pitcher, stylistically those do seem to hold true to a degree — not permanently and not always, but that’s what I try to map out. I like those a lot. Baseball’s a little bit tough to bet on from a moneyline standpoint for me because it truly can be any team in any game, but once you start to get to the midway point of the season, you start to get some of the premier matchups between division leaders, things like that.
PB:Why have the Orioles been so profitable for bettors the past two seasons?
SS: Because they’ve had young, inexperienced players that have not been as inefficient as young players typically are. We saw for example Gunnar Henderson go through a slump at the beginning of the year and turn that around, get on base. … [They] generally have just punched above their weight. They were a year early. Last year was not supposed to be what it was in Vegas’ eyes. They finished 25 games over what Vegas thought, which is about as big of a swing as you’ll ever see. Their young talent performed. I think that the pitching staff was looked at as a complete question mark. A guy like Kyle Bradish getting Cy Young votes was not in the cards. The young batters were more efficient than expected, arrived a little quicker than expected — in a literal and figurative sense — and they were able to get more out of lackluster pitching. At one point two years ago, they had Austin Voth going from one of the worst pitchers in baseball to a completely serviceable [swingman]. I think they’ve done a great job maximizing what pitching talent they have and getting efficient performances out of young players.
Spencer Schultz’s Favorite Futures Bets
Gunnar Henderson over 27.5 home runs (-106)
Framber Valdez to win the AL Cy Young (+1000)
Zack Wheeler to win the NL Cy Young (+850)
Corbin Carroll to lead the majors in steals (+550)
Bobby Witt Jr. to lead the majors in steals (+1100)
Shohei Ohtani to lead the majors in home runs (+1000)
Juan Soto to lead the majors in home runs (+1700)
Fernando Tatis Jr. to lead the majors in home runs (+2300)
