2022 NASCAR at Pocono odds, start time, surprising picks, race predictions, TV: Model dodging Chase Elliott

The 2022 M&M's Fan Appreciation 400 starts at 3 p.m. ET on Sunday at Pocono Raceway. Kyle Busch is the favorite at Caesars Sportsbook. Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr., Ryan Blaney and Kyle Larson are still looking for their first win of the year. SportsLine's model simulates every race 10,000 times and has nailed five of Larson's wins. It also nailed Martin, TrueX, Elliott and Logano's and went 15-9 on its head-to-head predictions to start the 2022 season.

The model is picking Joey Logano to win the 2022 NASCAR at Pocono. It's also picking Chase Elliott to finish outside the top 10. Elliott is a 15-1 long shot. Logana is 7th in the standings and has two NASCAR wins at the track. The model also predicts that Elliott will finish out of the Top 10 at this year's race. The 2020 NASCAR Cup Series champion has a 67-point lead at top of 2022 standings. He's finished first or second in four of last four races of this season.

The model is also targeting one other driver with odds of 12-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag in 2022 NASCAR at Pocono.