2023-24 NHL predictions: Devils' Vitek Vanecek wins Vezina Trophy

The Devils are not going to sneak up on anybody this season.

While bettors who took a shot on the Devils in the futures market in 2022-23 were provided with plenty of bang for their buck thanks to the long shot prices, the expectations in Newark are much higher for the new campaign and that means the prices are a lot shorter.

Most sportsbooks have the Devils as either the second or third choice on the betting board, behind the Carolina Hurricanes and on par with the Edmonton Oilers, Toronto Maple Leafs and Colorado Avalanche.

But for those who are looking for a long shot on the Devils that is still tied to the team’s success, look no further than goaltender Vitek Vanecek to win the Vezina Trophy at 150/1 (BetMGM).

There’s a couple of things that stand out about this number.

First, it’s pretty rare for the starting goaltender on one of the Stanley Cup favorites to be this far down the oddsboard in the Vezina market.

But there are a couple of reasons that Vanecek is near the bottom of the board.

Let’s first get this out of the way: Vanecek is not an elite goaltender.

The 27-year-old has established himself as a reliable starting goalie in a tandem, but Vanecek’s talent and numbers will pale in comparison to elite netminders like Ilya Sorokin, Igor Shesterkin and Connor Hellebuyck.

Vanecek is 74-33-14 with a .909 save percentage and a +2.9 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) in 131 career NHL games, and those numbers seem like a fair representation for Vanecek’s career to date.

Another thing that can make bettors skeptical about Vanecek’s ability to put together a Vezina-worthy season is the presence of Akira Schmid.

The 23-year-old Swiss became one of the major stories of the playoffs when he took over for Vanecek in Game 3 against the Rangers and led the Devils to a famous comeback in the series.

But just because Schmid stole the show in the postseason for the Devils doesn’t guarantee he will get the lion’s share of starts over the 82-game regular season.

Schmid’s numbers in a small sample size have been good, but he’s only played 33 NHL games (including postseason) in his career.

He’s not a shoo-in to just pick up where he left off in the spring.

In fact, I would venture to guess that it’s more likely that Vanecek ends up with more starts than Schmid over the course of the season since the Devils will value stability over raw talent in a season where they’re expected to contend for a Stanley Cup, but Schmid is a much shorter price (35/1) in this market compared to Vanecek. I’d suggest that the odds should be switched.

Now that we’ve established why Vanecek’s price is so long, let’s talk about why he’s a good bet. And it’s pretty simple.

The Devils are one of the favorites to win the Presidents’ Trophy (best regular-season record) and he’s likely to start most of their games.

Betting on the NHL?

Vanecek has a realistic shot at leading the circuit in wins, which is a big factor in taking home this award.

If Vanecek does pace the NHL in wins, he doesn’t need to have an eye-popping statline to get on the ballot.

If he gets close to the 40-win mark, a marginal improvement from his .911 save percentage from 2022-23, that would probably make him one of the favorites to be named the league’s top goaltender in June.