Rangers vs. Devils odds, prediction, picks: Bank on a low-scoring Game 7
The matchup between the New York Rangers and New Jersey Devils was projected to be the most competitive of the NHL’s eight opening-round playoff series.
And oddsmakers priced the rivalry clash accordingly, making New Jersey a modest -115 favorite to take the series.
So of course Rangers vs. Devils is the only first-round series that’s yet to be decided. And of course New Jersey is a modest -115 home favorite heading into Monday’s Game 7.
Which team will survive and advance to face the Carolina Hurricanes in the second round? Well, we recommended a wager on the Devils to win the series before it started.
While we stand by that recommendation, our best bet for Game 7 of Rangers vs. Devils involves the total. That it matches our Rangers vs. Devils predictions for Game 4 and Game 5 should be as surprising as this series going the distance.
Odds updated as of 2 p.m. ET on May 1.
Rangers vs. Devils Prediction
Under 5.5 goals, -135 (at BetMGM)
Rangers vs. Devils Prediction: Analysis
This highly entertaining first-round series has had a little bit of everything:
Road underdogs take the first four games; home favorites prevail in the next two.
Three contests (Games 1, 2 and 6) inch Over the total; the middle games stay well Under the total.
New York converts 20.8% of its power-play chances and kills penalties at an 81% rate.
New Jersey converts 19.1% of its power-play chances and kills penalties at a 79.2% rate.
So picking a Game 7 winner truly is as much of a tossup as the moneyline odds indicate.
There is, however, value in betting this series finale to stay Under total — even if it comes at a bit of a cost. And even if it requires a rookie goaltender to bounce back quickly from the first shaky outing of his brief playoff career.
That goaltender, the Devils’ Akira Schmid, relieved ineffective starter Viteck Vanecek after the latter allowed nine goals in a pair of 5-1 home losses to start this series.
Schmid was sturdier than a bank vault over the next three contests, stopping 80 of 82 shots as New Jersey outscored the Rangers 9-2 to rally for a 3-2 series lead.
Schmid also was solid for the first 19 minutes and 35 seconds of Game 6 on Saturday. Then he allowed a game-tying power-play goal just before the first intermission.
New York subsequently poured in four more goals in a 22-minute span from the middle of the second period to the middle of the third.
Schmid eventually was pulled for Vanecek before the latter was yanked for an extra skater late in the contest. The move led to the Devils’ second goal, which scored on a power play, but Rangers goalie Igor Shesterkin shut things down from there.
New York’s 5-2 victory ended a three-game Under run in this series but continued one particular trend: The Rangers have scored exactly five goals in all three victories (while putting the puck in the net just twice in three losses).
There’s little chance an Under bet will survive if New York pots five goals again in Game 7. And we’re obviously wagering against that happening.
Which means we’re betting on Schmid to revert to the form he showed in Games 3, 4 and 5, as the 22-year-old Swede will be back in net for Monday’s series finale.
Our optimism is rooted in the fact that Saturday was just Schmid’s second meltdown in 17 NHL starts. He gave up four goals in a 5-3 home loss to St. Louis on Jan. 5.
After that game, Schmid surrendered just 17 goals on the next 298 shots he faced prior to Game 6 — a sensational .946 save percentage.
Granted, Schmid hasn’t faced the type of win-or-go-home pressure that he’ll encounter Monday night. But he is playing at home, and you know the Devils will deploy a defensive-oriented game plan that includes extra protection around their netminder.
What about Shesterkin? We have absolutely no concerns about him being rattled in Game 7. He won two such games last year, and he’s been outstanding in this series, allowing 11 goals on 180 shots (.942 save percentage).
At worst, we can see Shesterkin letting two pucks slip past him Monday night. That, of course, means that Schmid has to match the reigning Vezina Trophy winner for this thing to slide Under 5.5 goals.
Well, he outperformed Shesterkin in each of his first two playoff starts, doing so at Madison Square Garden. Then Schmid posted his first career playoff shutout back home in Game 5.
Some more home cooking should boost Schmid’s confidence Monday night. And with both teams dialing back the offensive aggressiveness in a tense Game 7, six-plus goals seems quite unlikely.
Lay the -135 odds on Under 5.5 goals at BetMGM.
Moneyline: Rangers (+105) @ Devils (-115)
Puck Line: Rangers +1.5 (-275) @ Devils -1.5 (+225)
Total: 5.5 goals (Over +115/Under -135)
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