Devils vs. Hurricanes odds, prediction: Wrong team favored in Game 1 of this NHL playoff series
New Jersey made a ferocious comeback in Round 1 to knock off the Rangers in seven games, setting up our Devils vs. Hurricanes Game 1 prediction for this second-round series.
The Hurricanes picked off the Islanders in a sweaty six games, although the underlying metrics show that Carolina largely dominated.
In fact, these are the two best teams left in the playoffs by most advanced metrics. Moreover, these two split their four-game regular-season series.
So, from a fan perspective, this is an incredible matchup. From a betting perspective, finding an edge between two teams so talented and evenly matched will be hard.
But I think I’ve found an edge worth betting on in Game 1.
Moneyline: Devils (+104) vs. Hurricanes (-125)
Spread: Devils +1.5 (-250) vs. Hurricanes -1.5 (+202)
Total: Over 5.5 (+108) | Under 5.5 (-132)
Devils vs. Hurricanes pick
New Jersey Devils ML (+104) | Play to (-110)
Devils vs. Hurricanes prediction + best bet
By Money Puck’s advanced statistical power ratings, the Hurricanes were the NHL’s best overall team this year, while the Devils were second.
Moreover, these teams finished the postseason’s first round first and second in Expected Goals Share.
These are two really good hockey teams. However, the Devils have a slight edge in almost every area.
The Devils tallied 28.24 expected goals during the first round, two more than any other playoff team. On the back of that, they have the best expected goals differential of any playoff team.
And that includes Carolina. The Hurricanes also dominated their first-round series, but the Devils were slightly better in almost every area.
The one area where Carolina was better was on defense, where they allowed fewer expected goals. But the Devils have found something in goaltender Akira Schmid.
Schmid started just 18 games during the regular season, but he took over as starting netminder during the first round when starting goaltender Vitek Vanecek started struggling.
Schmid has been unbelievable. Only Igor Shesterkin tallied more goals saved above expected in the first round, and Schmid led all first-round goaltenders in save percentage (.954).
I have nothing against Carolina goaltender Antti Raanta, but Schmid is clearly playing better. So, even if the Hurricanes have the defensive advantage, the Devils have the goaltending advantage.
Plus, I think the Devils may be a tad undervalued. Those first two losses against the Rangers dragged down their already stellar numbers, and the public may overlook them because it took seven games to advance.
However, the Devils are an elite hockey team, especially when skating 5-on-5 (their even-man numbers blow everyone out of the water, including Carolina). And after shaking off those first two home losses, which I partially attribute to inexperience, the Devils obliterated the Rangers.
The Devils won four of their final five first-round games, beating the Rangers by a combined score of 15-7, including two 4-0 shutout victories.
The Devils are playing like the best team in hockey, and I think the wrong team is favored in Game 1. So, we’re getting a great price betting on the Devils as underdogs.
The market agrees, as The Action Network App has tracked sharp and smart money on the Devils.
So, I’ll happily back the Devils at anything close to even money. I expect the better hockey team to win Game 1, even in enemy territory.
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