2023 College Football Betting: Can UNC or Louisville win the ACC?

For The Win

16 August 2023

Coastal Chaos is gone. The ACC ditched divisions for football beginning with this season, so we should get the conference’s best two teams meeting for the championship game in Charlotte during that first weekend in December.

But don’t pencil in Clemson and Florida State as the surefire top 2 just yet. The ACC can still get weird and wacky. It was just two years ago that Pitt and Wake Forest met for the conference title. And as for Florida State? Well, we still need to see more before we declare, “THEY’RE BACK.” The Seminoles haven’t played for the ACC title since 2014. Was last season a fluke or a sign of a resurgent FSU?

And will the ACC have a team good enough to make the College Football Playoff this year, something it hasn’t done in the past two seasons?

Let’s get into what often is the weirdest and most unpredictable Power 5 football conference and break down how it looks from a betting perspective.

All odds via DraftKings.

Clemson +145

Dabo Swinney went outside the family when making an offensive coordinator hire this past offseason, bringing in Garrett Riley from TCU – which had the ninth-best scoring offense in FBS last season. Cade Klubnik made some freshman mistakes last season, but was pretty dang good in the ACC title game and Clemson’s bowl game, where he rushed for two touchdowns, threw another, and averaged about 300 yards through the air. Can Riley turn Klubnik into the next great Clemson quarterback? We’ll see. Defensively, the Tigers should still be solid, despite losing four All-ACC players to the NFL Draft. Clemson still has one of the best linebacker corps in the country, led by Jerimiah Trotter Jr.

Florida State +150

Are they back? Fans of the Seminoles on Twitter and message boards sure want you to believe so. Still, even if you’re annoyed by them – or by the higher ups there whining about wanting to leave the ACC – it’s hard to ignore the facts: FSU returns eight starters on offense, including All-ACC quarterback Jordan Travis, who threw for 24 touchdowns and rushed for seven more while totaling 3,633 yards of total offense last year. Much of the defense is back too, and it’s improved by transfers along the front. Just like last season, FSU opens with a neutral site game against LSU. Circle that one, and its Sept. 23 game at Clemson. Wins in those games could have folks talking about FSU in the College Football Playoff.

North Carolina +1000

The Tar Heels are armed with the best quarterback in the league, one who very well could win the Heisman and be a top five pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Quarterback play can go a long way in this league – last year, Drake Maye and co. were the keys to UNC winning nine games and appearing in the ACC title game and the Holiday Bowl. If Maye continues to look like a legitimate first-round talent, and if the defense improves just enough – the Heels were 102nd in points allowed last season – UNC could find themselves back in Charlotte.

Louisville +1000

The argument for betting on Louisville is that they should be better under new coach Jeff Brohm than they were under Scott Satterfield, and they play a cake schedule – one that could put them in a position to punch a ticket to Charlotte. The Cardinals could be 5-0 before a two-game stretch in which they host Notre Dame and travel to Pitt. Then Louisville plays Duke, Virginia Tech and Virginia – all at home – before finishing up the regular season with a trip to Miami and a home game against non-conference rival Kentucky. The key in Louisville’s schedule is this: They’re the only ACC team this season that doesn’t have to play Clemson, Florida State or North Carolina. The Cardinals have been blessed by the schedule Gods.

Pitt +2000

A bet on Pitt is a bet on absolute chaos and Pat Narduzzi’s Panthers standing atop the rubble when the smoke settles – which is something this league has seen before. Pitt thrived in the Coastal Division, winning it 2017 and 2021. While divisions are gone now, Pitt – armed with a signature stingy defense and a ground-and-pound offensive philosophy – still has the chance to give its opponents unique headaches. The Panthers also upgraded their quarterback this offseason, bringing former Boston College and Notre Dame passer Phil Jurkovec back to the Steel City and reuniting him with Frank Cignetti Jr. In 2020 at BC, Jurkovec played his best season of football under Cignetti, throwing 17 touchdowns to just five interceptions in 10 games.

Virginia Tech +15000
Boston College +15000
Georgia Tech +20000
Virginia +30000

Sorry, there’s no way any of these squads play for the conference title this year. Two of them are undergoing massive fundamental rebuilds (Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech), and the other two just don’t have the talent necessary to compete at the top of the league this year. Going .500 and playing in a bowl game would be an impressive accomplishment for any of these teams.

Riley Leonard, over 2,625.5 passing yards -115

Leonard topped this mark last year by more than 300 yards, and a lot of folks expect the Duke junior to be even better this year.

Drake Maye, over 26.5 passing touchdowns -115

He threw 38 touchdowns last season. Maye throwing 12 fewer scores would seem like a great disappointment.

Will Shipley, over 950.5 rushing yards -115

Shipley rushed for 1,182 yards last season. And TCU’s top back – Kendre Miller – rushed for 1,399 yards in Riley’s system last year. Count on Clemson to lean on Shipley again.

Wake Forest, over 6.5 wins, +115

Aside from the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, the last time Wake Forest won fewer than seven games in a season was 2015. Yes, Sam Hartman is gone, but trust in Dave Clawson.

Boston College, under 5.5, +105

This team ain’t good, y’all. Seriously. Boston College very well could start the year 0-4, a stretch that includes games against Northern Illinois and Holy Cross.

Pitt, over 7, -120

Since Pat Narduzzi took over in 2015, Pitt has finished with a losing record just once. The Panthers might blow a game they aren’t supposed to lose, and they might pull off an upset in a game they aren’t supposed to win — but when it all shakes out, Narduzzi’s Pitt teams end up with, on average, about 7.7 wins per-year. This season should be no different.