2023 College Football Betting Locks: National Championship Winner
Months from now, it will all make sense. A team will avoid all major landmines, stay healthy enough, play well enough and get just the right number of breaks to win a national championship.
All those ingredients are necessary to win, and don't let anyone tell you otherwise. It's not just about finding the most talented team; it's finding the right group with the best path.
In recent years, Georgia has taken on this role. The Bulldogs have been the nation's most talented team, but they've also enjoyed their fair share of breaks. (Just look at the playoff game against Ohio State last season.)
None of it matters now with Week 1 on our doorstep. Rosters are set, no systems have been implemented, and the results will tell the story moving forward. When it comes to betting the team that will win the title, well, we're ready.
It's not just picking one team, although we'll provide you with our picks. It's finding value down the board and giving you, the educated bettor, options.
Here are those options.
Michigan (+750)
Well get to other teams with better value, but this is the pick.
The Wolverines rank behind only Georgia (+220) and Alabama (+600), and they are tied with Ohio State on the odds board.
After an offseason of exploring Michigan's potential, it's not hard to see why. This team should be more explosive on offense, has a slew of young talent of defense poised to take a dramatic step forward and the schedule is conducive to win a lot of games.
Sure, being without Jim Harbaugh for the first three games is an inconvenience. Those games, however, will be played against East Carolina, UNLV and Bowling Green. (Translation: Michigan will be fine.)
The rest of the schedule includes a slew of winnable games along with two noteworthy challenges: a road trip to Penn State and the final regular season game against Ohio State. Those games will not be easy, but they are games the Wolverines can and will win.
Offensively, this team should overwhelm. At running back, a healthy Blake Corum and an explosive Donovan Edwards—couples with an improved J.J. McCarthy—should make the nation's No. 6 scoring offense from a season ago even better.
On defense, every level has players. Sophomore cornerback Will Johnson seems poised for stardom, and there are a slew of underclassmen who should contribute.
Whether this is Harbaugh's final season or not, and I believe it will be, it will be glorious. Although it won't be enormous value, this will be the pick.
Clemson (+1800)
Down the board we go for value, and Clemson at 18/1 certainly feels like a friendly (and potentially profitable) proposition.
While Florida State has improved, the Tigers still feel like the team to beat in the ACC. And when it comes to this specific discussion, it's important to highlight that Clemson will host Florida State this year.
Outside of that game—and it will be one of the biggest games of the football season—Dabo Swinney's group has a manageable path. Playing Notre Dame later in the year could be difficult, although that game will also be played at home. The Tigers travel to Duke, Syracuse, NC State and South Carolina.
In terms of the team, it starts with the offense. Quarterback Cade Klubnik should thrive in Garrett Riley's offense. As should running back Will Shipley, who should see a dramatic increase in touches this year. If he doesn't, something is wrong.
Defensively, Clemson should roll out a group that should overwhelm most of the conference up front. The Tigers weren't bad on this side of the ball in 2022, although an increase in performance, with an assist from the offense, should be expected.
It's been a few years since Clemson was in the College Football Playoff. That changes in 2023, and when it does 18/1 could look like a bargain.
Washington (+4000)
If +750 or +1800 isn't good enough, how does +4000 sound?
Washington will be one of most dangerous teams in college football. Whether the Huskies are able to push for a playoff spot or not, they certainly won't be boring.
Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. will be even better in 2023, and that's a scary thought considering how superb he was during his first year with the program. Having wideouts Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan return along with him, as well as his offensive coordinator, should push the No. 7 scoring offense from a season ago up another notch.
The concern, of course, is the defense. It wasn't dreadful in 2022, finishing No. 58 in scoring nationally. Given how fast the offense plays, the defense will be under constant pressure. If it can just be "good" this year, this team could be special.
The schedule is back loaded. A mid-September road trip to Michigan State could be interesting, although it doesn't really kick into gear until October. The Huskies play Oregon, at USC, Utah and at Oregon State.
More than anything, the schedule is why Washington has the odds that it does. The Pac-12, in its final season, is absolutely loaded. The Huskies will need to be excellent to make it to the title game relatively unscathed.
Simply put, it's why they can be had at 40/1. But given the talent and the quarterback and the potential, it feels like a bet worth making.
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