B/R College Football 2023 Betting Locks with Adam Kramer: Conference Dark Horses
Anyone can pick a favorite to win a conference championship. Over the next few weeks, across the college football landscape, the chalk will be regurgitated over and over again.
Georgia? Sure. Ohio State and Michigan. Absolutely.
That, while perhaps a proper and correct thing to do, is not what today's exercise is all about. In fact, it's the exact opposite.
Today is about finding value and swinging big, and swing big we shall. Specifically, we're looking for long odds, lively longshots, and ways to cash in across all Power Five conferences.
Once the season begins, Locks of the Week will focus on picking winners on a weekly basis. For now, however, this weekly CFB staple is centered on forecasting the future.
This is all about potential dark horses ready to take college football by storm. Here are teams with big odds capable of surprising (and potentially lucrative) conference champion runs.
Big 12: Texas Tech (+1200)
Joey McGuire's 2022 debut was a fabulous foundation. Despite a year that was loaded with injuries, especially on offense, Texas Tech won eight games. With Zach Kittley back as offensive coordinator, it's reasonable to expect a much cleaner, better season from a team that returns a lot.
At quarterback, Tyler Shough is back and should be more polished if he can stay on the field. It's been a problem for Shough, who has flashes serious talent. If he can stay healthy, there is enough around him to make things tough on the rest of the conference.
On defense, replacing defensive standout Tyree Wilson will (obviously) be a challenge. Still, the group returns a bit, especially in the back end.
This unit will give up points given the pace the offense plays at, and that's perfectly fine. It needs to find a way to replicate last year's success—something that could pave the way for a big 2023.
In terms of results, we'll learn a lot when the Red Raiders play Oregon during Week 2. While that won't impact conference standings, it will give you an idea of what's to come.
Texas Tech travels to Texas in the final regular season game of the year, and that will be a challenge. Outside of that, however, the conference schedule seems plenty manageable.
Pac-12 Championship: Oregon State (+1100)
Jonathan Smith is an emerging college football star. He just so happens to coach in Corvallis, Oregon, which is not a place we typically associate with football star power.
DJ Uiagalelei comes over from Clemson, and the potential is fascinating. While Uiagalelei had his struggles with the Tigers, a change of scenery should do him well. A loaded offensive line and great pieces on offense—especially young running back Damien Martinez—make this a truly intriguing squad.
They return plenty, and the schedule sets up nicely. The road schedule is particularly favorable outside of a closing game at Oregon. The Beavers play Utah, UCLA and Washington at home, and this home environment has treated them quite nicely.
There is no doubt talent in the Pac-12, especially at quarterback. And while many will side with USC, Oregon or Utah to win the division, this is a capable program that could win 11 games and a conference title.
SEC Championship: Texas A&M (+1400)
Admittedly, Texas A&M has been in this position before. We've openly wondered when all that talent would translate to results, and we're still waiting.
Offensively, this team must evolve. The addition of Bobby Petrino as offensive coordinator brought on a slew of commentary that covered the spectrum of reactions, although it could be wildly successful. He will inherit Conner Wegman, a promising young QB. At wide receiver, Evan Stewart is going to be a star.
The defense is a mix of former blue-chip recruits up front along with some timely transfer portal additions in the back. It has to be better than it was last year, especially against the run. I believe it will be.
Well, and it better be. This schedule has teeth, and there's no getting around it. The Aggies play road games at Tennessee, Ole Miss and LSU. They also Arkansas, Alabama and South Carolina at home.
The road to the conference championship will not come easy, although the constant remains: outside of Georgia and Alabama, there isn't a more talented roster in the conference.
Big 10 Championship: Wisconsin (+650)
For one more season, the Big Ten will play with twodivisions. As such, the winner of the Big Ten West should have a chance to winthe conference.
At less than 7/1, this value isn't extraordinary. But we are, at least, picking a Big Ten champion outside of Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan.
Only one of those three teams will make the conferencechampionship. Wisconsin, meanwhile, can find its way back into the conferencetitle if its new offense takes shape quickly. Transfer Tanner Mordecai willlikely lead a much quicker attack, thanks to the addition of offensivecoordinator Phil Longo. And at the top, Luke Fickell should provide someimmediate juice for a program that needed it.
Wisconsin plays Ohio State, although it will do so at home.Outside of that, the Badgers have a cozy road schedule and path overall.
The name of the game is simple: make the conferencechampionship game and win the West. If Wisconsin can do that, +650 could lookpretty good.
ACC Championship: North Carolina (+1000)
The odds in the ACC are incredibly top heavy, and perhaps for good reason. There is Clemson (+145) and Florida State (+155). After that, it's everybody else.
In that "everybody else" mix is North Carolina, and the logic surrounding this pick is somewhat simple. They have Drake Maye, arguably the best player in college football. (Caleb Williams fans, I hear you. But Maye is absolutely in this mix.)
At the very least, he's capable of scoring points in bunches. And despite the loss of top wideout Josh Downs, Maye has experienced pieces around him. The defense must be better, and it should be. The reality, however, is that UNC will have to do it with points.
A game at Clemson late in the year will certainly be a test. But the rest of the road schedule—Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech and NC State—isn't too shabby. If Maye is as advertised, the Tar Heels have a chance.
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