B/R College Football 2023 Betting Locks with Adam Kramer: Games of the Year
The days of having a single week of college football games to wager on are long gone. Welcome to this new glorious future.
Now, an entire season of fascinating matchups has point spreads and accompanying expectations. If you have a hunch—and there's a good chance you do—you can use that to handicap an entire catalog of meaningful games.
In a few weeks, Locks of the Week will make picks for each individual college football week as they happen, starting with the majestic lineup we have been gifted with Week 0.
Now, though, we're focusing on the biggest games of the season.
As time progresses, these point spreads will shift. Lackluster showings, injuries and breakout performances will drastically alter what these spreads look like once the games arrive.
That's the fun, after all. If you spot value now, it could be that much more meaningful in the future. Without further ado, here are some early picks in CFB's most important matchups.
September 23: Clemson (-3) vs. Florida State
Few teams have garnered the level of hype Florida State has this offseason, and it's not hard to see why. Mike Norvell returns tremendous players on both sides of the ball, headlined by quarterback Jordan Travis.
This team is talented, and it will be a popular choice to win the ACC. Again, it makes a lot of sense.
But Clemson feels like a bit of a sleeping giant at the moment, especially when it comes to a game that will be played at home. The addition of Garrett Riley as offensive coordinator should be a massive one for quarterback Cade Klubnik and running back Will Shipley.
An offense that sputtered at times last season, to put it lightly, should be massively improved.
The defense is where the Tigers can really separate themselves, especially up front. And while I expect Florida State to be better, this feels like an ideal spot for Clemson.
The Tigers will enjoy a few weeks to find comfort in a new offense. That should be more than enough.
October 14: Notre Dame (-1) vs. USC
It is entirely possible Caleb Williams destroys everything in his path leading to another run at the College Football Playoff for the Trojans. It's also possible USC struggles to force as many turnovers as it did a season ago, and the defense ultimately loses a handful of games.
In this particular spot, in what will likely have a nice fall-ish feel, I love the Irish.
While we normally find new and exciting ways to overrate Notre Dame, it feels like we're sleeping on Marcus Freeman's squad. Weird, I know.
The addition of transfer quarterback Sam Hartman is a massive one, and the performance should look much different as a result. He should have that type of impact if he plays like he did at Wake Forest.
USC won this matchup a season ago, although the game took place in California. Switching the venue should have a sizable shift.
While fading Williams is a never fun task to take on, USC's defense allowed 93 combined points in its final two games. That will be a problem once again.
October 14: Washington (-2) vs. Oregon
There will be a slew of fabulous football games played in the Pac-12 this year, although this could wind up being the most compelling of them all. (Also, I would be shocked if the total for this game isn't in the mid-70s. Don't worry, we'll get there soon enough. Also, bet the over.)
In terms of quarterbacks, this game has them. Michael Penix Jr. vs. Bo Nix is a wonderful tussle thanks to the rapid improvement both enjoyed last year. In terms of an edge in this game, though, I'm looking at the offensive coordinators.
Washington OC Ryan Grubb turned down the opening at Alabama to return. Oregon, meanwhile, must replace the absence that former coordinator Kenny Dillingham left when he became the head coach at Arizona State.
Washington didn't lose a game at home in 2022, and only one home game was decided by less than a touchdown. That trend continues.
November 11: Michigan (-2) vs. Penn State
On the topic of tremendous football games loaded with meaningful implications, this one is oozing with potential.
Sure, we'll have our eyes on Michigan-Ohio State around Thanksgiving, but skipping over this matchup would not be wise. Both teams are threats to win the Big Ten title and more. As such, the line here is appropriately short.
While I love the youthful foundation Penn State has entering this year—and a November matchup will give the Nittany Lions plenty of seasoning time in advance—the Michigan foundation will be too much to deal with.
Granted, playing in Happy Valley will be an enormous challenge. But the three-headed offensive combo of J.J. MCCarthy, a healthy Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards will be a force for any team to deal with.
Michigan has a wonderful opportunity to make the College Football Playoff again, although it must get past this game first. It won't be easy, but it will be enough (to cover).
November 24: Oklahoma (-6.5) vs. TCU
Do you recall how this game unfolded last year? If not, allow me to provide a refresh.
TCU absolutely dismantled Oklahoma 55-24. Even worse, the Sooners allowed a staggering 668 yards of offense. Woof.
Less than a year later, things are certainly different. TCU has said farewell to a slew of tremendous players who helped shape a run to the national championship. And Oklahoma, fresh off a mulligan of a football season, has some optimism on all fronts.
The most optimistic part of the Sooners' 2023 outlook starts at quarterback, and I fully expect Dillon Gabriel to be a force. Assuming he stays healthy, he has a chance to be one of the nation's most productive players.
While the result of last year's matchup was certainly eye-opening, things are different now. And the game will be played in Norman, rather than on TCU's home turf.
That is enough to look long and hard at this one, although Oklahoma is poised for a significant rebound.
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