2023 Del Mar Betting Preview

It’s summer in Southern California, and for horseplayers that can only mean one thing: Del Mar is here! The annual Del Mar summer Thoroughbred meet opens on Friday, July 21 and will usher in California’s most looked-forward-to season of horse racing. The 2023 Del Mar summer meet will be conducted mostly on a four-days-a-week basis, Thursdays through Sundays plus Labor Day for eight weeks ending on Sunday, Sept. 10.

The 84th Del Mar summer meet will encompass 31 race days and will host 39 stakes races with purses worth a combined $8.275 million The meet will include six Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In” stakes races topped by the meet’s signature race, the $1 million, Grade 1 FanDuel Racing Pacific Classic, which serves as a prep for the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic. The 2022 Pacific Classic was won by eventual Classic winner and Horse of the Year, Flightline. Pacific Classic Day on Sept. 2 will be headlined by a total of five graded stakes and will be the unofficial climax of the season.

For handicappers, Del Mar is much more than just important stakes races. The meet will be a welcome change from the small fields, limited race days, and sparse betting opportunities offered at the recently concluded Los Alamitos meet. Turf racing, absent in SoCal since the end of Santa Anita Park’s meet in mid-June, returns with a vengeance, and 2-year-old racing shares center stage. Read on for some handicapping advice on what to look for in order to win “Where the Turf Meets the Surf” at old Del Mar.

Wagering menu and the opening day $1 million guaranteed Pick 6

Few places, if any, offer better racing and wagering than Del Mar, and you will get plenty of chances to make plenty of money throughout the meet with Del Mar’s extensive betting options, which include everything you would expect plus rolling daily doubles and pick threes, early and late pick fives every day, and a 20-cent jackpot-style pick six on the last six races on the card.

Del Mar plans to up the ante for pick six players right of the gate at the 2023 summer meet. For the first time ever, the track will present a $1 million guarantee to any single-ticket holder who hits the pick six on opening day.

“The pick six is one of our players’ favorites,” said Del Mar’s director of mutuels Bill Navarro. “Our special opening day enhancement is meant to put an exclamation point on the fact that the bet can be a life-changer. We want to get the buzz for it started early.”

Besides the opening day pick six promotion, track officials note that there will be multiple other days during the meet where a mandatory payout will be in effect for the pick six. Those dates are to be announced shortly.

Del Mar main track trends

Del Mar’s main track winning profile certainly can be speed-favoring, and that was the case at Del Mar’s two meets in 2022. In dirt sprints, early speed horses held an overwhelming advantage with 60% of all winners (98-of-163) racing on or close to the early lead. Horses had equal chances from inside, middle, and outside posts, but horses racing on the lead or within 1 ½ lengths at the first call won by far the most dirt sprints. Stalkers won 26% and closers (as defined as coming from four or more lengths off the early pace) won only 13%. The front-running bias existed at all sprint distances in 2022.

In dirt route races, the vast majority of the 61 such races run in 2022 were run at one mile. You can expect less than 10 main track routes to be carded at the meet going further than a mile, with one of them being the meet’s signature race, the 1 ¼-mile Pacific Classic. In those two-turn dirt races, the name of the game was speed in 2022. Early speed horses enjoyed a strong advantage in Del Mar dirt routes with horses on or close to the pace (within 1.5 lengths of the lead) winning 61% of the races. The main difference between routes and sprints is that closers more than four lengths off the pace have much better chances in routes, where they won 26% of the races last year. Specifically at the distance of one mile (most of the routes), 28% of the winners closed from more than four lengths off the pace, making that particular distance the best for closers on the Del Mar main track.

Post positions play a role in a horse’s chances of success in Del Mar dirt routes, but perhaps in not the way you would think. Overall, outside posts are fair in Del Mar routes and the horses drawn outside are not at a big disadvantage; however, it does appear to be important for a speed horse to draw a post between 1-6 to have a good chance to go all the way. Speed horses drawn outside post 6 either lose ground on the first turn or are forced to “send” and often go too fast too early to be able to hold on late. Outside speed types won only four of the 61 dirt routes in 2022.

Del Mar turf tips

Del Mar runs some of the country’s best summer grass racing. In the era since Del Mar installed its new turf course the year prior to hosting the Breeders’ Cup in fall 2017, the vast majority of Del Mar’s turf routes are run at one mile or 1 1/16 miles, while a handful of races each summer are run at 1 1/8 miles and 1 3/8 miles on turf. Turf routes in 2022 had an average field size of 9.61.

Del Mar’s turf course plays quite fairly in terms of post positions in one-mile races, which is by far the most common turf route distance. The outside posts are more problematic at 1 1/16 miles and especially at 1 1/8 miles, where the wins drop off sharply outside of post 6. It should be noted that the 2018-2021 summer winless streak at 1 1/8-miles for horses drawn in posts 9-12 was finally snapped in 2022 when two horses won from post 10.

In terms of running style preferences in turf routes, stalkers and closers do the best. In 2022 Del Mar turf routes, 25% of the races were won by horses on or close to the pace, 35% were won by stalkers, and 41% were won by closers from more than four lengths off the pace. This means that turf closers do much better at Del Mar than at Santa Anita Park and should therefore be upgraded if they enter coming off losses at Santa Anita.

Del Mar’s turf sprint races are all run at the distance of five furlongs and Del Mar ran 39 of these races last summer for an average of a little more than one a day. Santa Anita Park turf sprint form, which includes races on the downhill course and mostly longer turf sprints, may not translate well to Del Mar, so these races can feature plenty of upsets. For handicappers, what you need to know about Del Mar turf sprints is that they are ruled by early speed horses racing on the pace or within 1 ½ lengths of the early lead. Speed horses won 59% of Del Mar’s turf sprints in summer 2022, with stalkers winning 26% and closers winning only 15%.

In terms of post positions, Del Mar’s turf sprints have an average field size of 9.11 horses and it is the middle posts 4-6 that have been the most successful. In summer 2022, for example, 18 of the 39 races (46%) were won from the middle posts. Inside posts (23%) and outside posts (31%) were decent but not as effective.

Enjoy the 2023 SoCal summer racing season at picturesque Del Mar. Best of luck!