Breeders’ Cup Post Draw Reactions: Upgrades & Downgrades
It takes a multi-layered approach to handicap the Breeders’ Cup. After pouring over pre-entries for the last week, the fields are set. We know who is in and who is out and what the morning line on each runner is.
Monday’s post position draw for the Breeders’ Cup was the final piece of information handicappers needed to formulate their opinions. Here are some big takeaways from the post draw.
Future Stars Friday
For our look at our previews of the runners in this year’s juvenile races check out our Friday race previews:
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint
Best Run Style
The current meet at Santa Anita has only run 1 race at this configuration so the jury is still out on dominant run style.
Best Post Position
The current meet at Santa Anita has only run 1 race at this configuration so the jury is still out on dominant post position.
Favorite
#4 Big Evs (3-1)
Key Takeaways
- Big Evs drew perfectly in this spot. He is a rare European horse with blazing early speed. The key here is that his biggest threat for a speed duel, No Nay Mets, is drawn to his inside which should allow his jockey to work out whatever trip he wants.
- Crimson Advocate and Amidst Waves are a pair that are also likely satisfied with the way things are shaking out. The former should be able to save ground and pass tiring rivals if good enough. The latter likes to come from off the pace and should be able to let the inside speed clear and plan from there.
- Slider was a horse I was very interested in, but the wider draw is not ideal for a horse that looks too slow to clear off in the early stages.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies
Best Run Style
In another small sample size, this race will likely go through a runner who is involved early. Horses within 3 lengths of the lead at the 2nd call have won all 3 races this meet.
Best Post Position
The 3 races run at this configuration have produced 2 winners from the rail. Inside posts also accounted for the other victory as well.
Favorite
#7 Tamara (4-5)
Key Takeaways
- Tamara is a talented filly, but she is trying 2 turns for the first time. She will be singled on a number of tickets and rightfully so. Overall this post does little to upgrade or down grade her standing.
- Brightwork is another likely speed candidate. I doubt she’s of the quality of the favorite, but drawing outside gives her some options.
- Candied is the likeliest alternative to Tamara. Her rail draw is probably just about perfect to leave her in with a chance, but the race is really going to have to fall apart given her run style and the Santa Anita track profile.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
Best Run Style
The Santa Anita turf has been pretty fair at these longer distances. The only run style that hasn’t been super productive is a just off the pace stalking trip. However, horses coming from 3-5 lengths out are winning close to a third of all races.
Best Post Position
One trend that has emerged in these races is that outside post positions are having the most success. Post positions 8 and beyond are the only ones with a positive impact value on horse performance.
Favorite
#11 She Feels Pretty (3-1)
Key Takeaways
- She Feels Pretty drew well based on the profile of the track and makes sense as the favorite, but this is a wide open and deep race.
- Porta Fortuna drew into the middle portion of the gate and at 5-1 possesses plenty of talent for this level. I like the draw here.
- Two horses that weren’t done any favorites by the draw are #3 Buchu and #14 Les Pavots. Buchu will likely be in a tough spot with so many late running types looking to gain position. Garcia will need to be firm in defending his position.
- Les Pavots was a horse I really wanted to use as a sneaky player. While I like outside posts in these races, 14 may be a bit wide to work out a trip. The 9-1 morning line is probably spot on with the draw.
Best Run Style
Similar to the Juvenile Fillies race, this race offers little data on run styles that are most effective. However, early indications are that forwardly placed is preferable.
Best Post Position
Inside posts currently own all 3 victories at the condition so it would seem that closer to the rail is preferred. It is important to note that 3 races hardly is enough to declare anything definitively.
Favorite
#6 Locked (7-2)
Key Takeaways
- Locked is favored and drew outside, but I’m not sure how much that matters for a closing type like this. The race appears to have plenty of clear off speed and this one should be able to set up any trip to put in a big charge to the wire. The question will be whether or not the dominating late pace will allow this one to close against the normal track profile.
- #2 Prince of Monaco and #4 Timberlake both drew inside and look to get a pretty nice garden trip behind a reasonably fast pace. Both get upgrades from the draw.
- #10 Muth is drawn well outside of the other speed and will likely need to expend extra energy if he has plans of going gate to wire. The American Pharaoh showed that this one can rate, but that was a rather unconvincing performance against suspect competition. This is not the ideal draw.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf
Best Run Style
Turf routes are won most frequently by midpack type horses, but the fairness of the track means that no particular run style can be eliminated immediately.
Best Post Position
The outside draws have been outperforming expectation, while posts 1-7 have all had a negative impact value on the horse.
Favorite
#2 River Tiber (3-1)
Key Takeaways
- Post 2 isn’t ideal for the favorite, but should do little to dissuade backers. Ryan Moore has been on three of these horses and this is the one he sticks with/
- #5 My Boy Prince drew a perfect spot in a race where he could potentially be lone speed. This one may be able to clear off and hold.
- #14 Carson’s Run is parked all the way to the outside. Although the horse got the best of the #5 last out, this is a lot of extra ground to cover and 6-1 seems a bit light for the risk.
Saturday
For our look at our previews of the runners in this year’s championship races check out our Saturday race previews:
Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile
Best Run Style
Over 80% of races at this configuration have been won by horses on or near the lead at the 2nd call. Horses from the back must be much the best.
Best Post Position
Starting in the middle of the gate has been the most advantageous position. Posts 4-7 have produced an average win percentage of 21%.
Favorite
#3 Cody’s Wish (9-5)
Key Takeaways
- Cody’s Wish drew fine. He wants to come from off the pace and shouldn’t have to contend with much traffic back there.
- The key to this race will be the tactics. Based on early pace figures the #4 Zozos, #5 Charge It, and #6 Skippylongstocking could all be in the mix for the early lead. However, Zozos is the one most likely to give it all away to get it.
- #9 National Treasure got the short end of the stick. The wide posts have yet to win at this configuration and he doesn’t have the speed to catch the front from an outside position.
Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf
Best Run Style
Going a mile and a quarter at Santa Anita is not typical. This means that once again players will be dealing with a very small data set.
Best Post Position
Generally it seems as though starting in the middle of the course is slightly better than anywhere else. In tactical turf races this gives the opportunity to choose your trip.
Favorite
#6 Insprial (5-2)
Key Takeaways
- The favorite should be just fine with the draw if good enough to beat this field.
- #2 Warm Heart drew inside which probably isn’t ideal. It also isn’t a death sentence either.
- #1 In Italian drew the rail and given her path to victory that is probably honestly the best place for her to go from.
- #11 Lumiere Rock was a horse that I though offered some intrigue, but getting parked in the center of the course makes this one much tougher to take.
Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint
Best Run Style
Seven furlongs on the dirt is a distance where you want to be forwardly placed. However, with the extended sprint distance, being on the lead isn’t as imperative as it would be in some of the shorter races.
Best Post Position
Middle posts 4-7 have been the most productive. However, with a shorter field in this race there is a lot less concern over the distance horses need to travel.
Favorite
#1 Goodnight Olive (6-5)
Key Takeaways
- This was not a great post position draw for the favorite, Goodnight Olive. She lacks early foot and runs the risk of getting bottled up inside.
- The lone need-the-lead type in the race appears to be #7 Society. However, there is significant concern that there is plenty of tactical speed to her inside.
- #4 Matareya gets an absolute dream spot breaking from the center. Her jockey should be able to use her speed to force the hands of others, while keeping plenty in the tank.
Breeders’ Cup Mile
Best Run Style
Horses having the most success relative to their odds have been on the lead or coming from the middle of the pack. Pace pressers and deep closers have struggled more but are still winning when the right horses is in those spots.
Best Post Position
Horses drawn to the outside have been the best at outperforming expectation and also win an average of 15% of races per post starting with gate 8.
Favorite
#10 Songline (5-2)
Key Takeaways
- Japanese runner Songline took top billing and should be okay breaking from the 10 hole. I’m sure connections would have liked to move in a couple of spots, but the outside post is productive at this distance.
- #9 Astronomer is an interesting prospect. With In Italian opting for the previous turf event, there doesn’t appear to be much speed and this one may just be good enough to get clear.
- #2 Gina Romantica likes to get forward and perhaps the lack of speed to the inside means that this runner will be up in the mix and can sit the garden trip.
Breeders’ Cup Distaff
Best Run Style
Forwardly place horses own the dirt routes at Santa Anita. Horses will need to be in striking position by the 2nd call if they want to impact the outcome of the race.
Best Post Position
Horses on the inside have a lot of success over this distance on the dirt. This advantage is magnified if they can couple it with a forward run style.
Favorite
#4 Idiomatic (5-2)
Key Takeaways
- A lot of speed signed on toward the inside. The favorite, plus 4 more of the inside 6 runners all like to be forwardly placed. Other than Randomized who drew outside, no one really needs the lead. The 1st call will determine if this race holds together or falls apart.
- I tend to lean toward the race getting a bit quick early. If that happens the race could open up for runners with a bit of late kick. That leaves the favorite in play if she can stay out of the heat early, but also opens the door for some more tactical runners including #10 Desert Dawn, #3 Pretty Mischievous, and #9 Clairiere.
Breeders’ Cup Turf
Best Run Style
Once again horses will be going an extended route at Santa Anita. Due to the uncommon nature of the distance, there is little data, but early speed has shown the ability to hold on.
Best Post Position
The middle portion of the gate seems to be the best place to break from with both races at this distance having been one in gates 4-7.
Favorite
#9 Mostahdaf (5-2)
Key Takeaways
- Not much changes in this race after the draw in terms of the favorite. The #9 draw should workout perfectly.
- Another interesting runner is Auguste Rodin who will break from post #5. This seems to be a handpicked draw for the talented European runner.
- Get Smokin is a huge beneficiary of the draw. The #6 whole with the two other confirmed need-the-lead types way to the outside makes this one an interesting prospect to try and hold them off wire to wire.
Breeders’ Cup Classic
Best Run Style
Early speed is crucial in this spot with 86% of winners coming from on or near the lead.
Best Post Position
The rail has been dominant in 22 races winning 27% of races alone. The rail in this year’s contest belongs to Arcangelo.
Favorite
#12 Arabian Knight (3-1)
Key Takeaways
- Undoubtedly the favorite was determined based on connections, potential, and the threat of early speed. However, the wide draw means that #6 Saudi Crown may be able to dictate the pace. Major downgrade.
- Belmont and Travers winner Arcangelo got the coveted 1 hole, but he may be the one who wanted it the least. As an off the pace runner he runs the risk of getting boxed in and the horse’s size means he travels best when in plenty of space.
- The post seemed to really benefit a runner like White Abarrio who draws the #3 post and should be able to workout a perfect trip from there.
Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint
Best Run Style
In turf sprints at 5 furlongs it is definitely a benefit to be in front and avoid traffic. That being said these races can occasionally become such a scramble at the top that the race completely disintegrates.
Best Post Position
Inside posts have been bests for runners to save ground. Keep in mind that Santa Anita has a short stretch though so an inside runner that needs to pass horses will need to find a way out on the far turn which is not ideal.
Favorite
#5 Live in the Dream (9-2)
Key Takeaways
- The favorite should be in a fine spot to run to the best of his ability. The problem may be to his inside.
- #3 Caravel drew a dream spot here. The inside post without being on the rail means this mare can break with her typical speed and play catch me if you can.
- #4 Tony Ann may actually get a dream scenario here as the runner to the inside and outside will look to hit the gas early. It could open a nice little pocket for this one to just live in the hole.
Breeders’ Cup Sprint
Best Run Style
Santa Anita dirt favors runners with some early speed. The interesting part about this race is that it actually come up devoid of true blazing speed.
Best Post Position
As is often the case with speed favoring surfaces, the inside posts also tend to be where the most winners come from. This is no different for the inside three spots in this configuration which have seen an average win percentage of 21%
Favorite
#8 Elite Power (9-5)
Key Takeaways
- The favorite drew ok in this spot. With not many in the gate, the best thing for this late runner was to stay off the inside.
- #7 Speed Boat Beach is light on competition, but but one of the likeliest to try to steal the race on the front end and looks drown well enough to get into that spot.
- #2 Dr. Schivel will be all too happy to be drawn just outside of Nakatomi who would likely be a major threat to an off the pace victory outside three horses drawn well outside. Maybe this post gives him the tactical edge.
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Breeders’ Cup
We will continue to provide extensive coverage of the horse racing world championships in the lead up to the big days including our full card analysis for both Friday and Saturday.
