Heisman Trophy odds update: Michael Penix Jr., Caleb Williams

The Trojans needed some overtime two-point conversion luck to hold off Arizona, winning, 43-41.

A loss could’ve knocked Lincoln Riley out of the College Football Playoff hunt and potentially ended Caleb Williams’ repeat Heisman dreams. 

Alas, both goals are still alive, albeit hanging by a thread. 

The Trojans dropped to No. 10 in the AP Poll, and Williams is no longer the betting favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. 

Let’s dive into those Heisman betting odds, courtesy of sportsbooks everywhere. 

2023 Heisman odds

Here are the current Heisman odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

For the first time all season, Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is the official betting favorite in the Heisman Trophy race. 

It’s about time. 

Last week, I wrote in this column that Penix should be the favorite. He’s the nation’s most-efficient quarterback for the nation’s most-efficient offense.

What more can you ask for? 

However, Penix’s Heisman hopes hinge on this Saturday’s matchup between No. 7 Washington and No. 8 Oregon in Seattle.

Third in the current Heisman betting hierarchy is Oregon quarterback Bo Nix. 

The Ducks have surged. Following back-to-back blowout Pac-12 wins over Stanford and Colorado, Oregon is first nationally in net Expected Points Added (EPA) per Play margin. 

Nix is Oregon’s engine. He’s thrown 15 touchdowns to only one interception, and leads all qualified quarterbacks in completion rate (80%). 

I’m willing to bet whichever quarterback wins Saturday’s game will be the Heisman frontrunner in the markets next week. 

Williams should hang around toward the top of the odds boards, but I don’t think he’s winning the Heisman again. 

The Heisman winner is generally a dominant offensive force for a College Football Playoff contending team.

I don’t think the Trojans are a CFP-contending team.

Their defense is too messy, and their second-half schedule is brutal. 

The Trojans play Notre Dame, Utah, Cal, Washington, Oregon and UCLA over the next six weeks.

With how USC has looked against Arizona State, Colorado and Arizona, I highly doubt they will sweep that stretch. 

Ultimately, the Trojans are the third-best team in the Pac-12, behind Washington and Oregon

If a College Football Playoff participant or a Heisman winner comes from the Pac-12, it’ll be Penix’s Huskies or Nix’s Ducks.

This weekend’s game will be the deciding factor in those questions.

Heisman odds: The dark horse

Hello, Dillon Gabriel!

With 1:02 left in the Red River Showdown, Gabriel drove his Sooners 75 yards in five plays for a game-winning touchdown, instantly sending shockwaves throughout the Big 12. 

The Sooners have their signature victory, and their 6-0 record now looks legit.

Oklahoma is 21st nationally in EPA per Play and 10th in EPA per Play allowed.

They’ve soared up to fifth in the AP Poll and now have the inside track to the Big 12 Championship game. Per Action Analytics, Oklahoma is projected as a favorite in their final six games and a double-digit favorite in five. 

The Sooners are a College Football Playoff contender, placing their quarterback in the middle of the Heisman conversation. 

But Gabriel is not merely a game manager for a great team. He’s an integral part of their success.

Betting on College Football?

Gabriel has accounted for more than 2,000 yards of total offense and more than 20 touchdowns (rushing and passing) with only two interceptions, ranking 11th among qualified quarterbacks in Pro Football Focus’s Offensive grades. 

Penix, Nix and Williams are the clear frontrunners to win the Heisman, but Gabriel is the clear fourth-best option. He’s a stat-sheet-stuffing quarterback for one of the nation’s best teams, and that’s all you need to win the Heisman.