2023 July Cup at Newmarket: assessing the top contenders for Saturday's big race

The July Cup (4.35 Newmarket, Saturday) takes place this weekend and a top-class bunch of sprinters look set to fight it out in this Group 1 contest. Here we go through the form of the leading contenders and produce an early verdict on who will come out on top.

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Form:11-111

Strengths: A winner of six of his seven starts, and a perfect 5-5 over six furlongs, the latest success coming in the Commonwealth Cup where he overcame a slow start to run down Little Big Bear.

Unlikely to have reached the ceiling of his ability and, on Racing Post Ratings, a repeat of his Commonwealth Cup showing (122) would have been good enough to land four of the last ten renewals of this race.

Shaquille (Oisin Murphy, left) beats Little Big Bear and Swingalong in the Commonwealth Cup

Weaknesses: Unlikely to get away with another stalls mishap now taking on his elders for the first time. 

Odds: 7-4

What they say

Steve Brown, assistant trainer: "We're excited for it. It's natural to be nervous, there's pressure on our shoulders to produce the horse in top condition. That's what we face on a daily basis wherever you are but of course the stakes are much higher in this situation. We've got a bit of everything: nerves, excitement and anticipation, and I'm sure we'll have all those emotions and more on the day."

Shaquille16:35 Newmarket (July)

Jky: Tnr: Julie Camacho

Form:411-11

Strengths: Archetypal Michael Dods filly who arrives on a significant upward career trajectory, building on a pair of Newmarket Listed victories when landing the Group 2 Duke of York Stakes last time out.

Looked a Group 1 horse at York and that form has been franked since, while she was a course-and-distance winner last season so will have no issues with this track.

Paul Mulrennan celebrates after victory aboard Azure Blue (purple/pink) in the Duke Of York Stakes

Weaknesses: Yet to prove herself at the level and an official mark of 114 leaves her with a little to find on these terms.

Odds: 11-4

What they say

Michael Dods, trainer: "It was a big step up today [at York], but there wasn't anything else to go to in the short-term. I knew there was improvement to come and she's shown she's a proper Group 1 horse. Mecca's Angel was all speed, but she's getting that speed now later on in her career."

Azure Blue16:35 Newmarket (July)

Jky: Paul Mulrennan Tnr: Michael Dods

Form:1113-7

Strengths: Has done most of his racing – and winning – over seven furlongs, but proved himself adept at sprint distances when landing the British Champions Sprint Stakes over 6f at Ascot in October.

Better than the bare result suggests when seventh in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes at the royal meeting where he only faded out of contention late on.    

Kinross wins the Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes at Ascot

Weaknesses: More exposed than most of these rivals and appreciates cut in the ground, so could do with some rainfall in the coming days.

Odds: 5-1

What they say

Jamie McCalmont, racing manager for Marc Chan: “William [Buick] will ride Kinross in the July Cup. William rode one horse for us last year, which was Lezoo when she won the Cheveley Park Stakes. As such, we felt he had to be the go-to jockey for the horses when Frankie was unavailable."

Kinross16:35 Newmarket (July)

Jky: William Buick Tnr: Ralph Beckett

Form:11-012

Strengths: A high-class juvenile who produced a scintillating performance when a seven-length winner of the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh last August.

His form figures over sprint distances read 2111112, and he represents a stable that has landed two of the last five renewals of this race.

Little Big Bear and Frankie Dettori win the Sandy Lane Stakes at Haydock Park

Weaknesses: Reported to be only a 50-50 chance for this race after a bruised foot forced him to miss six days of cantering and, if he does take his chance, he has a length and a quarter to find with Shaquille on their Commonwealth Cup running.

Odds: 6-1

What they say

Aidan O’Brien, trainer: "I'd say it's probably 50-50 whether he will run or not. He will be okay to run, but has he lost too much fitness? And, then we won't know until he runs how much it has affected him. Six days without cantering is a lot."

Little Big Bear16:35 Newmarket (July)

Jky: Tnr: A P O'Brien

Form:-06031

Strengths: An admirable seven-year-old who was breaking through at Group 1 level for the first time (at the ninth attempt) when running out a shock 80-1 winner of the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot last month.

A previous course-and-distance winner and finished fourth in this race in 2020, so should not have any issues with the track.

Jamie Spencer riding Khaadem (pink/green) to victory in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes

Weaknesses: His Royal Ascot success was a clear career best so he must back it up, while at the age of seven he looks vulnerable to fresher legs.

Odds: 9-1

What they say

Charlie Hills, trainer: "Newmarket should suit him, as long as it's fast ground. I was really impressed with how he travelled [in the Jubilee Stakes] and whoever rides him knows what to do now."

Khaadem16:35 Newmarket (July)

Jky: Tnr: Charles Hills

Verdict

Kinross is entitled to take a step forward from his Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes seventh, but unless we receive significant rainfall between now and Saturday this looks set to be fought out between Shaquille and Azure Blue. Slight preference goes to the latter, who arrives on a significant upward curve and looked every inch a future Group 1 winner when landing the Duke of York Stakes last time out.

Azure Blue16:35 Newmarket (July)

Jky: Paul Mulrennan Tnr: Michael Dods

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