July Cup: Timeform preview, tip and free racecard
The July Cup (16:35) at Newmarket on Saturday is available as a free Race Pass, which means logged-in customers can view all our premium comments and ratings.
There’s a smaller field than usual for one of the season’s top sprints, the July Cup (16:35) at Newmarket, with a field of nine making it the smallest line-up since the same number went to post in 1997. Sprinters from outside Britain and Ireland are notable by their absence too this year, though there is a clash of the generations, with the first two from the Commonwealth Cup taking on older rivals for the first time.
Most of the field ran at Royal Ascot last time but the exception is rapidly improving four-year-old filly Azure Blue (Timeform weight-adjusted rating 131) who has been kept fresh for this by Michael Dods since she won the Duke of York Stakes at York in May. She was fourth in a handicap at this meeting 12 months ago but has made big strides since, winning on all four of her subsequent visits to Newmarket (including efforts on the Rowley Mile) which earns her the ‘Horses For Courses’ flag.
Azure Blue ended last season winning a fillies’ listed race on the Rowley Mile and made a successful return in a similar event there in May before following up with much her best effort yet at York last time. After travelling typically well, Azure Blue led in the last half-furlong to beat high-class mare Highfield Princess by half a length in receipt of 5 lb from the runner-up, earning the ‘Horse In Focus’ flag and looking well up to Group 1 level.
Three-year-old colt Shaquille (130) is another who has made significant progress, winning all bar one of his seven starts for Julie Camacho. Like Azure Blue, he made a successful reappearance at Newmarket’s Guineas meeting, winning a handicap with a smart performance, and improved again under firmer conditions when making all in a listed race at Newbury later in May. Shaquille isn’t straightforward at the stalls, however, and when he reared leaving them in the Commonwealth Cup, losing at least five lengths, he looked to have blown his chance. But having made smooth progress to lead inside the final furlong, he ran out a ready winner by a length and a quarter from odds-on favourite Little Big Bear (129) and has the form to go close, especially if breaking on terms.
‘Hot Trainer’ Aidan O’Brien has declared Little Big Bear for this rematch after doubts about his participation earlier in the week due to a bruised foot. He’s yet to repeat the form of his impressive win in last year’s Phoenix Stakes, but bounced back from a poor run in the 2000 Guineas to win the Sandy Lane Stakes at Haydock when returned to sprinting, though had no obvious excuses when going down to Shaquille at Ascot.
A top-form Kinross (129) would have place chances at least for ‘Hot Trainer’ Ralph Beckett after shaping as though he’d come on for his reappearance in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot where he wound up seventh after holding every chance over a furlong out. The durable Kinross ran up a four-timer in pattern company last season, including Group 1 wins in the autumn in the Prix de la Foret at Longchamp and Champions Sprint Stakes at Ascot, having three of these rivals behind him in the latter contest.
Khaadem (127) had fallen short in Group 1 sprints previously but everything came right for him to win the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes last time by a neck from Sacred, drawn on the right part of the track and given the perfect ride the way the race developed, so isn’t sure to reproduce that form.
As well as Kinross, Khaadem also had Run To Freedom (ninth), Emaraaty Ana (eleventh) and Art Power (twelfth) behind him at Royal Ascot. Run To Freedom had beaten Khaadem in a listed race at Salisbury beforehand, and was runner-up to Kinross in the Champions Sprint last year, but ran a lacklustre race last time. Emaraaty Ana, who hasn’t made much impact in two previous July Cups, hasn’t hit form yet this year and is tried in cheekpieces for only the second time, while Art Power, a clear-cut winner of the Greenlands Stakes at the Curragh in May, had excuses at Ascot. He’s another to have come up short in Group 1 company, though wasn’t beaten far when fourth in this race two years ago.
The field is completed by the mare Vadream (123) who contested the King’s Stand Stakes instead at Royal Ascot but was never on terms. She’s been on the go since the winter and her chances would likely be improved by plenty of rain as her two wins this year in a listed race at Doncaster and the Palace House Stakes at Newmarket both came in the mud.
Timeform analyst’s verdict
Azure Blue has been kept fresh for this since winning the Duke of York Stakes and this most likeable filly (travels strongly and responds well) looks a Group 1 performer in the making. Shaquille produced a remarkable performance when overcoming a terrible start in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot but his issues with the stalls remains a slight concern (refused to enter them on intended reappearance and blanketed/led in riderless last two outings). Kinross is another to consider.
Timeform weight-adjusted ratings
131 Azure Blue
130 Shaquille
129 Kinross
129 Little Big Bear
127 Khaadem
125 Art Power
123 Emaraaty Ana
123 Vadream
120 Run To Freedom
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