2023 Kentucky Derby: Predictions, Futures And Best Odds

The US Sun

02 May 2023

2023 Kentucky Derby: Predictions, Futures And Best Odds

THE BIGGEST horse racing event in the US is here. Get all the information about the Kentucky Derby, including how and where to bet on the race, tips and more.

The Kentucky Derby is the biggest date in the US horse racing calendar. It takes place on the first Saturday of May at the Churchill Down Racetrack in Louisville, Kentucky. The 1¼ mile race pits the top three year old thoroughbreds in the country against each other, and represents the first leg of the triple crown, with the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes following soon after.

The Derby is also one of the most popular betting events in the US. It transcends horse racing: tens of thousands of people who barely watch a race for the rest of the year still like to bet a few dollars on the Kentucky Derby, and we’re going to explain how you can join them.

2023 Kentucky Derby odds, futures

The odds for the 2023 Kentucky Derby will be available closer to the start of the race. For now, you can check out the odds from the most recent TwinSpires futures pool:

Forte 5/2
Tapit Trice 11/1
Kingsbarn 11/1
Derma Sotogake 13/1
Practical Move 14/1
Two Phil’s 21/1
Reincarnate 24/1
Angel of Empire 29/1
Confidence Game 29/1
Hit Show 30/1
Rocket Can 32/1

Kentucky Derby: Top betting sites

Online horse racing in the US is limited with very few providers. However, there are still premium providers in the market. The main and best provider, is TwinSpires which has decades of experience in the industry, and offer modern and exciting coverage and betting options today in the vast majority of states in the US. You can check out the full list of states a little further down this page.

TwinSpires

TwinSpires is owned by Churchill Downs ltd., the home of the Kentucky Derby. They make the most out of this benefit too - there is a whole section dedicated to the Derby on the website. You can find articles about the history of the race, tips and predictions, odds and lots more. If it’s your first time betting on the Kentucky Derby, TwinSpires makes a lot of sense. As a new player, you can claim TwinSpires’ welcome bonus which is worth $200 in bonus cash after you have wagered $800 on the site.

Pros:

The home of the Kentucky Derby
Beginner friendly
Multiple Kentucky Derby future pools

Cons:

Welcome bonus requires a lot of investment before you get the benefit

How we chose the Kentucky Derby best odds betting sites

Similar to choosing a sportsbook to bet on other sports, there are plenty of factors that go into choosing a site to bet on horse racing. Racebooks (as they are known) have their own unique format that can be a little confusing for beginners. Here’s what you should consider:

Reputation - It’s always a good idea to choose a site with a longstanding reputation in the industry, and one which you are sure is legally allowed to accept your bets. TwinSpires have been accepting bets on horse racing for decades, and they have earned their respected position in the public consciousness.
Odds offered - Shopping around for the best odds is one of the easiest effective strategies for betting on horses. The top books all have advanced pools on the Kentucky Derby, and it pays to check how the lines are moving on different sites before you lock in a bet.
Mobile compatibility - Being accessible on mobile is basically a prerequisite for all online betting platforms these days. The majority of people now use their phone to bet in general, and it’s certainly the default way people bet online when they are attending a race in person.
Bonuses and promotions - Just like regular sportsbooks, horse racing sites offer welcome packages to encourage new players to sign up, along with on-running promotions and special offers.
Payment options - You can normally deposit and withdraw money via a variety of different banking methods. You should choose a site that supports a method convenient for you.

How do I place a bet on the Kentucky Derby?

TwinSpires. If it’s close enough to the race, betting will already be open, although the odds won’t be locked in until the actual race.

If you’re betting ahead of time, there are also future pools available which remain open for a limited time only in advance.

Actually placing a bet is simple. Just click your selection to add it to the digital betslip.

The betslip is where you can get a little creative. Add different selections to customize your bets, including building out those exotics.

When you’re ready to go, click the button to confirm your bet. If you hit a winner, you’ll be paid out as soon as the race is complete.

How are Kentucky Derby odds determined?

Betting on horse racing in the US is mostly pari-mutuel, meaning rather than betting against the house you are betting against all the other people who have placed the same type of bet as you.

If you’re betting on a horse to win the Kentucky Derby, you’ll more or less know the odds of your potential payout at the time of the bet, since it is based on all the other bets already placed on the race so far. The racebook will display the odds of each horse when you place your bet.

In the case of bets that have multiple winning outcomes however (like a Show bet for instance), you won’t know the payout odds until after the race finishes.

In this example, all the money of everyone who places a show bet is placed in the same pool. After the house takes a cut, the remainder is paid out in wins to everyone who had Show bets on the horses that finished first, second or third - meaning the payout is determined by which horses finish in those positions.

What kind of bets can I place on the Kentucky Derby?

Betting on horse racing can be a little confusing, especially if you're new to the sport. For beginners, it’s always a good idea to stick to the basic bets which are the easiest to understand and win. Exotics are probably more suited to intermediate bettors.

Below is a rundown of the most popular ways to bet:

Basic Bets - Win

As you can probably guess, a Win bet is a prediction on which horse will win the race. If your horse wins the race, you win your bet. Any other outcome, you lose.

Win bets also have the clearest odds. As we explained in the previous section, you see in advance the odds that you place your bet, so you know how much you would win. This makes them especially beginner friendly.

Basic Bets - Place

A Place bet is a bet on a single horse finishing either first or second in a race. As you can probably tell, this makes it easier to win than a Win but. However, as you can probably also tell, the payout will be lower since you need to share the prize pool with more people - everyone who had a Place bet on the two horses that finished first and second.

As we explained already, the precise payout won’t be known until the race is over.

Basic Bets - Show

A Show bet is a bet on a single horse finishing first, second or third. It’s the easiest bet to win, but has the lowest payouts. For beginners who aren’t too worries about hitting a big profit, and instead just want to root for a bet that has a good shot of winning, a Show bet is perfect.

Exotic Bets - Exacta

Exotic bets are where things start to get a little more complicated, since you need to make multiple selections.

The most popular is the Exacta. With this bet, you need to select two horses to finish first and second in a single race, in the correct order. It’s harder to win than any of the basic bets, but has a much attractive payout.

As before, the payout odds are determined by the prize pool and the position the horses finish.

Exotic Bets - Trifecta

With a Trifecta, you need to correctly predict the first, second and third horses in a single race. It’s a very difficult bet to win, but potentially very lucrative.

Exotic Bets - Superfecta

The most difficult of these exotic wagers is the Superfecta, where you need to correctly predict the horses that finish first, second, third and fourth in a race.

Is it legal to bet on the Kentucky Derby?

Yes. Betting on horse racing is legal in the majority of US states. The following states allow online betting on sites like TwinSpire:

Alabama
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
New Hampshire
New Mexico
New York
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Dakota
Tennessee
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming

Who are the Kentucky Derby favorites?

As we approach the biggest weekend of the year for horse racing fans, a number of thoroughbreds have been tipped to excel.

The clear favorite is Forte who was priced at 5/2 in the most recent advance pools. Forte most recently won the Florida Derby and was trained by Todd Pletcher, who has two Derby winners to his name already.

In fact, Pletcher’s horses are all over the list of favorites this year. He also trained Tapit Trice and Kingsbarn, who are joined second in the list at 11/1.

The full list of favorites is below:

Forte 5/2
Tapit Trice 11/1
Kingsbarn 11/1
Derma Sotogake 13/1
Practical Move 14/1
Two Phil’s 21/1
Reincarnate 24/1

How many horses are participating in the Kentucky Derby 2023

20 horses will run in the 2023 Kentucky Derby, as has been the case since 1975.

How much are Kentucky Derby tickets?

Ticket prices gradually increase as the Kentucky Derby gets closer. If you buy a ticket the week before, it will cost you $82. If you wait until May 6th, it will cost you $87.

Can you bet on the Kentucky Derby 2023 online?

TwinSpires are available in the vast majority of US states for anyone over the age of 21. Check our list of states with legal horse racing above.

What is the best betting site for the Kentucky Derby?

Betting on horse racing online in the US is dominated by TwinSpires which is an excellent choices for betting on the Kentucky Derby. There are even special bonuses for new members, including a $200 sign-up bonus at TwinSpires.

Our top 5 tips for betting on the Kentucky Derby in 2023

The Kentucky Derby is one of the most popular betting events of the year. Check out our top tips to consider before you place your bets below:

Play it safe if you’re a beginner. Basic bets are the easiest way to get involved, and a Win bet is the simplest to understand. If you want to give yourself the absolute best chance of winning with the least amount of effort, a Show bet is the way forward.
Bet early on the favorites. If you want to bet on the favorites, it’s a good idea to get your bets in on the advanced pools rather than waiting for raceday. Advance pools offer the best odds, since there are more variables in play in the months and weeks before the race. Barring something like an injury, the favorites’ odds are only going to get shorter
Stock up on bonuses. Racebooks routinely create special offers and promotions around the Kentucky Derby - like TwinSpires’ welcome offer. These offers are a no brainer if you're going to sign up to a site especially to bet on the Derby.
Don’t forget to check jockeys and trainers. Repeat winners of the derby is a hugely important data point when doing your research, and form in the race (from both jockeys and trainers) is a real factor. It’s no coincidence that Todd Pletcher has trained the top three favorites for the 2023 Derby.
A horse’s form is crucial. You want to look for horses that are peaking for the Derby, which have already picked up a win or a place in a Grade 1 or 2 race this year already.