2023 MLB Win Total Projections: Early Over/Under Picks

The Rangers are a risky team. If everyone stays healthy, this team could make the playoffs. The problem is several of these guys have had issues staying on the field the last few years. The three starters they added, Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, and Andrew Heaney, combined for 246 innings last year. Martin Perez had his best year by far. The bullpen is slightly below average. The offense gets plenty of praise, but they finished 19th in OPS last season and didn’t add anyone. There are too many questions here for me to pitch the over. With that said, the line does feel right. I have them as a 79-win team.

Toronto Blue Jays: 94.5 Wins (Lean: Under)

I like the Blue Jays a lot this season, but this line feels a tad high. This team won 92 games last season and didn’t improve much. While Ross Stripling isn’t a big name, he posted a 3.01 ERA in 134.1 innings. They replaced him with Chris Bassitt, a better pitcher, but it’s not promised he’ll have a better season. I think Jose Berrios will bounce back, and replacing Hernandez with Varsho was a great move. This team is very well-rounded after the addition of Swanson in the bullpen. I have them winning 94 games, so this line feels just right.

National League

Arizona Diamondbacks: 76.5 Wins (Lean: Over)

This will be one of my biggest win-total bets. This Diamondbacks team won 74 games last year but enter 2023 with some hype. Zac Gallen proved he’s a Cy Young-caliber pitcher. Merril Kelly is a solid innings-eater. Behind him are two exciting young pitchers with the possibility of more in the minor leagues. While they did trade Daulton Varsho, they got one of the best young catchers in the sport, and a talented corner outfielder in Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Corbin Carroll is as “can’t miss” of a prospect that you’ll find, displaying his 80-grade speed with a .500 SLG in a short sample last year. Hot take: this team finishes with more wins than the Rangers.

Atlanta Braves: 94.5 Wins (Lean: Over)

One of baseball’s best teams last season is just as good as they were last year. The Braves won 101 games with a better run differential than their rival 101 win New York Mets. Ronald Acuna Jr. is key after losing Dansby Swanson. He was recovering from a torn ACL, and his ground-ball rate spiked. If healthy, we should see him return to MVP form. The return of Mike Soroka has me salivating over this rotation, but the bullpen might be even better. If Vaughn Grissom is half the player Swanson was last year, we should see this team surpass 100 wins once again.

Chicago Cubs: 78 Wins (Lean: Under)

The Cubs will be better, but I’m not sure they are five wins better than last year. They had a slightly better run differential than the 69-win Marlins last season. They got better by adding Dansby Swanson and Jameson Taillon, but they are still a few years away from being a contender. This is a lofty projection, and I have a feeling it will be a popular over. While they did make nice additions, losing Willson Contreras will be a significant loss. This team is winning 75 games, so I see plenty of value in the under.

Cincinnati Reds: 64.5 Wins (Lean: Over)

The Reds won’t shock the world this year, but they should win over 64 games. This team finished with 62 wins last year but had a better run differential than the 65-win Royals. The rotation is young, but it has loads of potential. Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo have both flashed ace stuff. Graham Ashcraft has much better stuff than last season’s 4.89 ERA would indicate. Jonathan India was banged up for a chunk of the 2022 season, but he should be back to his old self. Tyler Stephenson is one of the best catchers in baseball, and Spencer Steer is my dark-horse Rookie of the Year candidate. I have the Reds finishing with 67 wins.