Cubs vs Reds Prediction, Picks, Odds

Covers

02 September 2023

With Chicago and Cincinnati both looking to get back into playing baseball in October, this series holds immense significance in their pursuit of securing a postseason spot. Read more in our Cubs vs. Reds betting picks.

Two playoff hopefuls will face off in a critical NL Central matchup on Saturday as the Cincinnati Reds play host to the Chicago Cubs.

The Reds (70-67) pulled off a dramatic 3-2 win on Friday night to even their series with Chicago and close to within one game of a wild card berth. The Cubs (72-63) currently hold the second wild card position in the National League.

As the season draws to a close and every game matters more, Chicago and Cincinnati have both been finding themselves in tight games day after day. We’ll talk about what that means for today’s matchup in our free MLB picks and predictions for Cubs vs. Reds on September 2.

Cubs vs Reds odds

Cubs vs Reds predictions

While teams are beginning to drop by the wayside as we enter September, the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds both still have legitimate shots at postseason baseball. The Cubs are currently in the picture, while a young and exciting Cincinnati team is fighting for what could be the first of many playoff berths.

Maybe that’s why runs have seemed to dry up in their games over the past week or so. The Cubs have hit the Under in five straight games, with none of those contests going over a total of eight runs. The Reds have an even longer streak, hitting six straight Under bets while staying at eight runs or less throughout that stretch.

That has continued into this series, as the Reds and Cubs have combined to score just 13 runs over their first two games. With two young pitchers on the mound for Saturday’s game, the total has once again been set at a robust 9.5 runs. But while the starters might not have the most experience, both have shown that they can handle MLB competition this year.

Cubs starter Javier Assad has been sparkling in his second year in the majors while splitting time between starting and relieving roles. If anything, he’s been even more effective as a member of the rotation, going 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA in six starts this year.

The Reds will counter with rookie Andrew Abbott. The 24-year-old lefty has made 16 starts in his debut season and has put up an excellent 3.35 ERA in those appearances. It’s likely that Abbott will get some consideration at the bottom of Rookie of the Year ballots this year, and could be a key piece in the Cincinnati rotation as this young team tries to become a perennial contender in future seasons.

In short, there’s no reason to think that anything is going to change between these two teams on Saturday. We have another important game with two successful pitchers on the mound, and both teams will have them on a short leash. With the season coming to a close before we know it, each side understands how important this contest is for their playoff hopes.

With all those factors in play, I’m backing the Under here at 9.5 runs. With the Over slightly favored at many books, we can get a better number than usual, making this bet an even better pick.

My best bet: Under 9.5 (-105 at bet365)

Cubs vs Reds same-game parlay

Under 9.5 runs
Reds +1.5

Javier Assad over 3.5 strikeouts

For today’s same-game parlay, I’m going go all in on a tight, low-scoring affair with good pitching from both sides. That starts with my best bet, taking the Under at 9.5 runs.

I’ll combine that with a Cincinnati bet on the run line. If the game is going to be close and low-scoring, there’s a solid chance of this being a one-run game, and I like the Reds’ chances of walking away as outright winners as well.

Finally, we’ll take a strikeout prop on one of the starting pitchers. Assad looks like the way to go, as the Reds are one of the most strikeout-prone teams in MLB this year. Assad’s strikeout total has been set at just 3.5, and the right-hander's gone over that mark in each of his last three starts.

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Cubs vs Reds moneyline and Over/Under analysis

This game opened with a very tight line, as the Cubs were around -115 favorites at most sites. That dynamic remains in place, as the best number I’ve found is Chicago -112, while you can do as good as +100 on the Reds.

This game feels like a toss-up to me, particularly with the Reds at home. If I had to lean one way, it would be towards Cincinnati, as we can get even money on the home team in a reasonable pitching matchup.

My preference is to take the Reds and the 1.5 runs on the run line, however. While the total has occasionally bounced to 10 runs at some books, 9.5 remains the consensus Over/Under. There’s a slight upward lean here, with -105 available at some sites on the Under, while you can’t really do better than the standard -110 on the Over.

The Cubs are averaging more than five runs a game offensively, so it’s not much of a surprise that the Over has gone 69-62 in their games. The Reds have played slightly below the total, with the Under putting up a 71-66 mark when Cincinnati plays.

I’m strongly backing the Under in tonight’s game. These teams have both been playing tighter now that we’re in the home stretch of the season, and there’s no reason to think that will change in this critical game for both sides. This feels a bit more like playoff baseball, meaning runs are more likely to be at a premium.

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Trend to know

The Under is 6-0 in Cincinnati’s last six games and 5-0 in Chicago’s last five. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Reds

Cubs vs Reds game info

Starting pitchers

Javier Assad (2-2, 3.13 ERA): Assad is in his second year as a major league pitcher, and has found a consistent role in the Cubs rotation as the season has progressed. Originally used out of the bullpen, the 26-year-old has now made five consecutive starts. The right-hander has even shown some length, going seven innings in two of his last four outings. His last start saw him allow just one run on three hits over seven innings in a win over Pittsburgh.

Andrew Abbott (8-4, 3.35 ERA): A former second-round draft pick out of the University of Virginia, Abbott quickly climbed through the minor league ranks and is now making an impact at the MLB level for the Reds. The 24-year-old lefty is striking out 10 batters per nine innings and holding opponents to a 1.218 WHIP, solid numbers that should improve further as Abbott gains more control of his stuff. In his last outing, the young southpaw allowed three runs on five hits over 3 1/3 innings against San Francisco.