2023 NASCAR Talladega odds, picks and predictions for the YellaWood 500 Cup Series playoff race

The NASCAR Cup Series heads back to Alabama for its fifth playoff race of the 2023 season, as a full field of drivers – not to mention the 11 who are still looking to clinch a spot in the next round of the postseason – will take the green flag at the YellaWood 500 on Sunday afternoon at Talladega Superspeedway.

Dega’s 2.66-mile, 33-degree-banked asphalt track is the biggest in NASCAR, as well as the fastest; and the Cup Series will run its 108th race at the superspeedway, including its 19th playoff start.

Brad Keselowski has the most Talladega wins out of any current driver with six, two of which came in playoff races. Joey Logano has three Dega victories in his career, while Kyle Buschm who won the season’s first race at the track back in April, has a pair – as does Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin and Ryan Blaney.

William Byron has already clinched his spot in the Round of 8 with a win last week at Texas. Eleven other drivers are still alive and can lock up their slot in the next round with a victory.

FrontPageBets takes a look at drivers to watch in the YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway on Sunday afternoon (2 p.m., NBC).

Pick to win: Brad Keselowski (+1000)

While the driver of the No. 6 RFK Racing Ford doesn’t have a win yet this season, Brad Keselowski does have six Talladega titles in 29 career starts.

At a track where “the big one” can ruin your day at any moment – as well as wipe out more half of the field – Keselowski has finished more than 97% of his laps at the 2.66-mile track. To that point, avoiding wrecks is paramount to finding victory lane at Dega, and Keselowski only has 4 DNFs in his career.

His average finish is 15.3, tallying 14 top-10s and 10 top-5s at the superspeedway.

Top-3 pick: Denny Hamlin (+300)

Denny Hamlin has won three times this season, including two weeks ago at Bristol Motor Speedway in the third playoff race of 2023.

The driver of the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota has done well throughout his career at tracks longer than 2 miles, winning 14 times in 174 starts at superspeedways. Two of those have come at Talladega – the first in 2014 and the second in the 2020 playoffs.

Hamlin has 15 top-10s and 10 top-5s in 35 career starts with five DNFs.

Top-5 pick: Bubba Wallace (+300)

Also winless in 2023, Bubba Wallace enters Sunday’s race on the Round of 8 bubble. Currently, the driver of the No. 23 23XI Racing Toyota is sitting in ninth place, 2 points behind Kyle Larson.

Wallace has had success at Talladega, as the Mobile, Ala., native recorded one of his two career wins at the superspeedway in the 2021 playoffs. That win is his only top-10 finish in his 11 career starts there.

Wallace, however, has been running well this year, making the playoffs for the first time, while racking up eight top-10s, including five top-5 finishes, including third place last week at Texas.

Odds-on favorites to win the YellaWood 500 at Talladega

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