2023 NFL Futures Best Bets: Kenny Pickett

Vaughn Dalzell thinks Kenny Pickett is ready to take the next step as a full-time starter and breaks down why you should back his Over in his passing yards.

Kenny Pickett O/U 3,300.5 Passing Yards

Kenny Pickett started 11 games and played in 13 last season for the Steelers, recording 2,404 passing yards, seven touchdowns to nine interceptions on a 63% completion percentage.

In that rookie season, Pickett averaged 29.9 passing attempts per game and 184.9 passing yards per game.

However, Pickett only threw one pass on Dec. 11, so based on a 12-game sample size as opposed to 13, Pickett posted 218.5 passing yards and 32.4 passing attempts per game.

Pickett also didn’t start in his first game for the Steelers. He replaced Trubisky against the Jets, then went on to face the Bills, Bucs, Dolphins, Eagles, and Saints over the next five games — an absolute gauntlet for a rookie QB.

To hit the Over on his 3,300.5 passing yards prop this season, Pickett would have to average 194.1 passing yards over 17 games or 206.3 yards per game over 16 contests -- both feasible numbers.

Pickett threw for 191 or more yards in eight of his 12 starts as a rookie and 244-plus yards in four of 12. In the final six games of his rookie season, Pickett averaged 207.1 ypg versus 193.5 ypg over the first six games.

The former Pitt Panther has had a full offseason to prepare as the starter opposed to backup behind Mitchell Trubisky last year. Plus, a full offseason and another year with George Pickens, Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, and Pat Freiermuth will only increase Pickett’s numbers.

I played Pickett Over 3,300.5 Passing Yards for -110 odds and would go to 3,499.5. The additions of WR Allen Robinson and TE Darnell Washington will also be beneficial to Pickett’s yardage and touchdowns prop.

Pick: Kenny Pickett Over 3,300.5 Passing Yards (1u)

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