NFL Passing Props 2023: Odds, Picks & Predictions

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05 July 2023

NFL Passing Props 2023: Odds, Picks & Predictions

NFL passing props for the 2023 season are starting to roll in across our best sports betting apps, and Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker has some early picks based on the latest NFL odds.

Summer vacay?

No way.

The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner, and I’ve already started peeking at the NFL passing props available across our best sportsbooks and shared my NFL rushing props picks. There wasn’t much value to be found in the odds of a quarterback throwing for 5,000 yards, but the pursuit never ends and will continue right up to Week 1.

Here’s a look at my initial NFL passing props picks and the odds available across our best NFL betting sites.

NFL most passing yards odds 2023

(Odds as of July 5)

NFL most passing touchdowns odds 2023

(Odds as of July 5)

NFL passing props 2023: Picks

Kenny Pickett Over 3,125.5 passing yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
Justin Fields Over 2,775.5 passing yards (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Jordan Love Over 3,350.5 passing yards (+125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

NFL passing props 2023: Handicap breakdown

Here’s a quick breakdown of my handicapping process:

Create custom projections for passing yards and passing touchdowns
Sim my projections 20,000 times through my model to determine the probability of an outcome
Convert the probability to odds
Compare my odd with the numbers across our best live betting sites

Kenny Pickett Over 3,125.5 passing yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

Not starting until Week 4 and sustaining a pair of in-game concussions took a toll on Pickett’s final stat line during his rookie season. The underwhelming numbers from his teammates didn’t help, either.

Despite tossing up a respectable 8.2 yard average target depth, his 6.2 yards per attempt ranked second lowest in the league. Additionally, Pickett’s 11.9 dropped-pass percentage was the fourth highest.

Still, another full offseason to develop chemistry alongside another step forward from wide receiver George Pickens, and tight end Pat Freiermuth are further reasons for optimism.

Finally, I also value Pickett’s improvements as the 2022 season played out.

He posted his five highest passing grades per Pro Football Focus between Weeks 13 and 18. The Pittsburgh pass offense ranked ninth by DVOA during the stretch, per Football Outsiders, and Pickett also checked out sixth in adjusted EPA per play.

I have Pickett projected for 3,341 passing yards.

There’s a notable edge to be found betting this Over through BetMGM and to a slightly lesser degree via FanDuel.

Justin Fields Over 2,775.5 passing yards (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

This is a pedestrian total, and Fields will have to either miss time or somehow negatively regress as a passer to fall shy. He averaged 162.1 passing yards per game over a 12-showing stretch from Weeks 4 through 17, and that prorates to 2,775.7 yards across 17 games.

The supporting cast around Fields is better, and another full offseason to further acclimatize to offensive coordinator Luke Getsy’s offense will help. Chicago brought in a legitimate No. 1 wide receiver in D.J. Moore during the offseason, which will also reposition the rest of the pass-catchers into a more appropriate role relative to their skill set.

Scooping up offensive linemen Darnell Wright with the 10th overall selection in the 2023 NFL Draft was another plus.

Finally, I’m anticipating opposing defenses to make Fields and the Bears beat them through the air more this season. He ran for video-game numbers in 2022, so it’ll only take a slight uptick in pass attempts to cash in on this Over.

I project Fields to throw for 2,991 passing yards.

FanDuel is hanging an outlier total for Fields, and there’s a clear edge in taking advantage. This is especially true when looking at the tighter total and price available through Caesars.

Jordan Love Over 3,350.5 passing yards (+125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

The Love era has arrived in Green Bay, and after three years of backup duty, the first-round selection of the 2020 NFL Draft has finally been handed the keys to the offense.

While what we know about Love as an NFL quarterback can fit under a block of cheese, the Packers will run out a veteran offensive line and one of the best running-back tandems in the league.

Unfortunately, the pass-catching corps can also snuggle in under the block of cheese alongside Love.

Green Bay will have sophomores Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs atop the wide receiver depth chart with 2023 second-rounder Jayden Reed projecting as the No. 3 at this stage of the game. The Packers used their first, second-round selection on unproven, but gifted tight end Luke Musgrave.

All the knowns and unknowns add up to my projection of 3,476 passing yards for Love.

And, this is where things become fun …

While Caesars has the lowest yardage total to clear, the -115 odds actually return a lower expected value than the +125 price for the higher total through DraftKings. I wouldn’t blame anyone for taking the Caesars route, but math is math, so it’s highway DraftKings for me.