2023 NHL Playoffs expert picks, odds: Predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Lightning, Devils vs. Rangers, Jets vs. Knights

Two teams have golden opportunities to advance to the second round on Thursday. On paper, seeing the Golden Knights and Maple Leafs in this position shouldn’t be a surprise. But some thought the Golden Knights would fall victim to the Jets as a trendy upset pick. And the Maple Leafs are, well, the Maple Leafs. But a win would relieve anxiety for those starved Leafs fans.

The Devils, meanwhile, seemingly took our advice to get their heads in gear, and they’ve now tied their series against the Blueshirts. Let’s get to these picks.

During the Stanley Cup playoffs, The Athletic’s writers will make their straight-up picks. You’ll find picks, coverage and the latest odds here. Our in-depth NHL coverage is linked below the picks.

All odds from BetMGM and update live. 

Game 5 – Lightning at Maple Leafs

Toronto leads 3-1

7 p.m. on TBS, SN, CBC

Toronto didn’t deserve to win the last two games of its series against Tampa Bay. It doesn’t matter. What matters is that they have those wins in tow. What is also special is seeing players like Morgan Rielly and Alex Kerfoot — players who have been on fans’ hit lists for bad reasons — emerge as heroes. Meanwhile, Ryan O’Reilly has proven to be the Leafs’ most important player in this series. His experience and clutch factor have put the Leafs in the driver’s seat, and they now have a chance to accomplish something they haven’t done since 2004: win a playoff series.

If they play like how they played in Game 2 of this series, the Lightning won’t have a chance, and it will close the door on a remarkable run that saw them reach the Stanley Cup Final in three consecutive seasons. If you’re the Lightning, however, now is the time to use all that playoff experience and mettle. We know about the fact that they’ve been banged up, but they’ve still managed to look good throughout most of this series. They still have big guns, but they need more from them. Nikita Kucherov has one goal in this series. Steven Stamkos also has one goal in this series. I still don’t know how Brayden Point emerged after being crunched along the boards, but he’s still available. Game 5 is important for the Lightning despite their 3-1 deficit. If they win that game, it casts doubt on the Leafs and thoughts of déja vu could return.

Game 5 – Rangers at Devils

Series tied 2-2

7:30 p.m. on ESPN2, SN360

Hey Devils, you tied the series at two games apiece. We’re proud of you. Akira Schmid has emerged out of nowhere to take the starting position from Vitek Vanecek and he’s helped them climb out of a deep hole. Jack Hughes, who might have looked a bit wide-eyed to start the series, appears much more confident as the series pushes on. There is a genuine chance that the Devils will continue to drive the bus off their momentum.

The Rangers have cooled off after their 2-0 series lead and return to the Garden State. Silver lining? It’s where their winning in this series began. But their brand of heavy hockey needs to impose itself on the upstart Devils or else this series will go down as a straight fumble. They still have the pieces to win games at every position. They don’t have the same energy as the Devils have had lately. They’ll need it back. But we don’t blame anyone for picking the Devils here.

Game 5 – Jets at Golden Knights

Vegas leads 3-1

10 p.m. on ESPN2, SN, CBC

When Josh Morrissey was announced to be unavailable for the rest of the series, you could feel the lump started to develop in Jets fans’ throats. Their most important defenceman and potential Norris Trophy nominee is gone due to injury. The Jets admirably tried to return in his absence, but they’re on the brink now. It would mark such a disappointing year for a team that, at one point, was among the league’s best. It doesn’t get any easier with them having to have start their comeback on the road in Vegas.

Meanwhile, the Golden Knights have imposed themselves by winning three consecutive games, and their big players have stepped up. Unless they ease off the gas pedal, there is every reason to believe they can keep it going at home.