2023 North Dakota Football Game-by-Game Predictions
North Dakota’s football schedule this year has eight MVFC games, two FCS non-conference matchups, and one FBS opponent
Here are game-by-game predictions for the Fighting Hawks, who are ranked No. 17 in HERO Sports’ FCS Preseason Top 25.
vs Drake
UND kicks off its season with a dominant win over non-scholarship Drake.
Win
vs Northern Arizona
Getting a second home non-conference game is big. UND has gone 4-1, 4-1, 4-0, and 6-0 at the Alerus Center in the last four seasons.
NAU has brought in the second-most Division 1 transfers among FCS schools with 28, including 18 from the FBS. We’ll see if that leads to an improved team. But the Fighting Hawks will be favored at home.
Win
at Boise State
UND has competed well against its FBS opponents. I expect the same here, but Boise’s depth will be too much in the second half.
Loss
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at No. 1 South Dakota State
The last time SDSU QB Mark Gronowski lost to an FCS team as a full-game starter came against UND in the 2021 spring, a game played in Grand Forks. These two squads have had some competitive games in recent years. But SDSU is just stacked this fall, having a mostly same-look two-deep as last year’s national championship team.
I’d need to see more from UND’s defense to pick an upset here.
Loss
vs Western Illinois
Sandwiched between games against the preseason No. 1 and 2 teams, this could be a trouble spot for UND. But it’s Homecoming. And it’s against WIU.
Win
vs No. 2 North Dakota State
At some point, UND will beat NDSU in football. If there was a year for the Fighting Hawks to knock off the Bison, this year is the best chance to do so since re-upping the series in 2015 as a non-conference game (now an annual conference clash). UND should have a stronger team than last season’s playoff squad. NDSU, meanwhile, faces its most offseason questions in more than a decade.
Plus, Grand Forks is not an easy place to play. The last matchup at the Alerus Center in 2021 saw a 16-10 NDSU win. The Bison went on to win a national title while UND finished 5-6. But … it still feels a bit bold to pick the Bison to lose this one. NDSU looks to have an advantage in the trenches again.
Loss
at Northern Iowa (Received Votes)
I think there’s a good chance UND and UNI go 7-3 in their other matchups outside of this one. So this is a huge swing game where the winner is solidly in the playoffs while the other is fighting among other bubble teams.
UNI is going to be very good offensively this year, led by All-American QB Theo Day. Its defense does have more questions along with the o-line. The Panthers will play well at home (I already have them beating NDSU in the UNI-Dome).
A week after a physical and emotional battle with NDSU and with it being on the road, it tips the scales toward UNI. However, I think UND most likely goes 1-2 against SDSU-NDSU-UNI. And this one seems like the best chance to grab that playoff-resume-boosting win. UND’s offense has a big day to pull off the win.
Win
vs Indiana State
A veteran UND roster should avoid a letdown loss, especially at home, against an Indiana State team that went 2-9 last year.
Win
at Murray State
New MVFC member Murray State is expected to take its lumps in 2023.
Win
at South Dakota
A tougher game than what’s currently on paper. USD struggled last season, but it expects to bounce back with Aidan Bouman leading the offense at QB. The Coyotes may not be completely out of the playoff picture at this point. And the DakotaDome can be a tough place to get a win. UND guts out a close game, though.
Win
vs Illinois State
Illinois State appears to be middle-of-the-pack again after finishing 6-5 overall and 4-4 in the MVFC last fall. The Redbirds will battle any team tough with their hard-nosed style, but cracking the top five in the standings is going to be a challenge.
The Fighting Hawks need just one more win to secure a playoff bid. They get it done at home.
Win
Regular-Season Record Prediction: 8-3
