McFeely: Five things to watch in the Bison-South Dakota State game

FARGO — It was, if memory serves, after a Football Championship Subdivision playoff game late in head coach Chris Klieman's tenure. Maybe 2017, more possibly 2018. The North Dakota State football team was steamrolling most everybody, in the midst of a record 39-game winning streak, and Klieman got behind a microphone in the basement of the Fargodome and said the darnedest thing.

"There were people who didn't believe we could win this football game."

This caused the staff at Five Things to chortle audibly and snap his head toward local TV luminary Dom Izzo, who was also holding back laughter. NDSU between 2011 and 2018 went 112-8 and won seven national championships. There was nobody anywhere who didn't believe the Bison were going to win that particular football game, nor any other football game they played.

So the staff at Five Things approached Klieman after the press conference, broad smile evident, and asked the head coach for more information.

"Name one person who didn't think you were going to win this game," said Five Things.

"There were people," said Klieman, who expertly changed the subject to something else.

Coaches are gonna be coaches, looking for an edge or a sliver of bulletin board material wherever they can find it. When you win 93% of your games over an eight-year period, anything is fair game. Maybe Klieman was made aware of some random unfortunate in Kazakhstan who blogged or podcasted that the Bison were not going to win.

It is now 2023 and the Bison are in a different place. They are still one of the top 15 teams in FCS, but not dominant like those glory days throughout the 2010s. That mantle now belongs to South Dakota State, the defending national champion that is crushing everything it its path. It appears the Jackrabbits, much-disliked archrivals of NDSU, are headed toward the stage at the north end of Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas, again in January.

And that has led to this strange take during the week of the Dakota Marker game: There are people who don't believe NDSU can win this game.

Lots of them. A majority of them. A vast majority of them, possibly.

There have been few games during NDSU's time in Division I — and even going back deeply into its Division II days — when it felt like the Bison had no chance to win.

There might even be zero games in the last 40-plus in which it felt like NDSU had no chance to win. Like, we're talking, no chance.

This feels like that game.

Five Things was racking its memory, since it's covered the Bison since 1997, about when the last time NDSU entered a game with no chance to win. Couldn't come up with anything.

Now, it's always risky to say no chance. There is always a chance. It's college football. Things happen. But everything seems to favor SDSU and it's in Brookings. A Bison victory would be viewed, oddly, as a major upset.

And if that happens, the current head coach, Matt Entz, would be fully within his rights to enter the postgame press conference and say, "There were people who didn't believe we could win this football game."

He could look squarely at the Five Things staff while saying it. Our prediction is SDSU 40, NDSU 10.

The Jackrabbits are favored by 11.5 points, according to the betting site 5dimes.

Here are five things to watch in the Bison-South Dakota State game.

Literally, we are cutting and pasting much of this section. Just as we did in January when the teams played for the national title.

Keep an eye on rushing yardage.

If the Bison can outrush the Jacks and, specifically, rush for more than 170 yards, they stand a much better chance of winning the game than if they don't do those things.

In 24 games between the teams in Division I (19 regular season, four playoff) the team that rushed for more yards has won 23 times. The lone anomaly was 2008, when the Jackrabbits won 25-24 in the Fargodome despite being outrushed 119-104.

About the 170 figure, again.

Former Bison radio voice Jeff Culhane unearthed a nugget that continues to be relevant.

When the Bison rushed for more than 170 yards against SDSU in the Division I era, they've won every time but one.

In the 24 games, the Bison are 13-0 when they rush for more than 170 against the Jacks. They are 1-10 when they run for less than 170.

NDSU ran for 127 yards in a 23-21 defeat at the dome in October 2022 and 160 in a 45-21 Jackrabbits rout in the the national championship game in January.

Here are NDSU's rushing totals against SDSU since the Bison dynasty began in 2011, with the winner and score in parentheses:

• 2022 title game — 160 (SDSU 45-21)
• 2022 — 127 (SDSU 23-21)
• 2021 — 147 (SDSU 27-19)
• 2021 spring — 97 (SDSU 27-17)
• 2019 — 332 (NDSU 23-16)
• 2018 playoffs — 439 (NDSU 44-21)
• 2018 — 207 (NDSU 21-17)
• 2017 — 108 (SDSU 33-21)
• 2016 playoffs — 316 (NDSU 36-10)
• 2016 — 161 (SDSU 19-17)
• 2015 — 202 (NDSU 28-7)
• 2014 playoffs — 181 (NDSU 27-24)
• 2014 — 290 (NDSU 37-17)
• 2013 — 262 (NDSU 20-0)
• 2012 — 171 (NDSU 20-17)
• 2011 — 182 (NDSU 38-14)

In SDSU's six victories since 2011, the Bison averaged 133.3 yards rushing per game.
In NDSU's 10 victories since 2011, the Bison averaged 258.2 yards rushing per game.

Quick trivia: What is the significance of the date October 26, 2019?

Answer: It's the last time NDSU took away the ball from SDSU.

In the subsequent four games, all Jackrabbits victories, SDSU has zero turnovers and the Bison have seven.

Coincidence that the Bison haven't won since 2019? We think not.

That turnover, a Josh Hayes interception of a Keaton Heide pass with 4:56 remaining in the fourth quarter, was turned into seven points by NDSU when Adam Cofield went 71 yards on fourth-and-1 from the SDSU 29. That broke a 16-16 tie and gave the Bison a 23-16 win.

It seems a million years ago. Hayes went on to play for two more colleges and is now in the NFL.

Turnovers always play a major factor in college football, but even moreso when one team is clearly better than the other. For the inferior team to defeat the superior team, it has to win the turnover battle and perhaps by a significant margin.

If the Bison don't turn over the ball and get a couple of takeaways, their chances of victory improve vastly.

The Bison had three turnovers in the national championship game in Frisco, Texas, and were blown out. If the Bison have three again on Saturday, the result will likely be similar.

Both teams are good at gathering turnovers. The Bison are tied for third in FCS with a +9 turnover margin. The Jackrabbits are tied for seventh at +8.

SDSU's defense is the best in FCS, statistically and in reality. That is a large hurdle for NDSU. The Jackrabbits are allowing a subdivision-best 11.4 points per game. So despite averaging 37.4 points, the Bison will find it tough going against SDSU. The Jacks are No. 1 in FCS in points per game and total defense.

So what would be a good offensive output? Twenty points? Twenty-four points? Twenty-seven points? Even 30 points?

Bigger question: Are any of those totals good enough to win the game?

Because the Jackrabbits are likely the best offensive team in FCS, too, even if their statistics don't match up.

They have the best offensive line in FCS, a likely NFL running back in Isaiah Davis, a quarterback in Mark Gronowski who will likely receive some interest from Big Ten and Big 12 schools wanting him to transfer, a likely NFL tight end in Zach Heins, a couple of receivers in the Janke twins who will at least get a chance with pro teams. The list is long.

So the question is not only, "How can the Bison score on these guys?" It's also, and perhaps more importantly, "How can the Bison stop these guys from scoring?"

While the Bison rank high nationally in scoring defense (11th) and total defense (10th), they haven't fared well against ranked teams. South Dakota controlled the ball and scored 24 points on just 41 plays in a 24-19 victory in the Missouri Valley Football Conference opener. North Dakota rang up 49 points and moved the ball at will in a rout in early October.

SDSU's offense is significantly better than USD and UND. And the Bison will be down at least a couple of key defensive players. Defensive tackle Will Mostaert was lost for the season when he tore an Achilles tendon last Saturday against Murray State. Starting linebacker Julian Wlodarczyk has missed the past two games after a concussion at UND. Starting cornerback Marcus Sheppard left last week's game with an apparent shoulder injury, but Entz said he should return against the Jacks.

NDSU has long been a top FCS team in time of possession. It goes with the Bison's historic reliance on the power running game. NDSU runs the ball, gets a lead, runs the ball some more and grinds out the clock.

The other team can't score if it doesn't have the ball.

Much of that TOP success is based on getting into manageable third down situations. Converting a third-and-2 into a first down is easy. Not so much for a third-and-8.

So, it boils down to this for the Bison: If they can convert third downs and possess the ball for long stretches, thereby keeping the ball out of the hands of SDSU's potent offense, they have a chance to win.

NDSU thrived in third-down situations this season, ranking second nationally by converting 52.6% of their third downs.

That's good. If the Bison can keep the ball, get first downs, run clock ... they keep Gronowski, Davis, Heins and Co. on the sideline. It shortens the game, limits SDSU's possessions, keeps the score down.

The bad news: SDSU is even better on third down. The Jackrabbits are No. 1 in FCS by converting 60.2% on third down.

Funny thing, though. The Jackrabbits have faced only 78 third downs in eight games this season. That's the second fewest in FCS, behind South Dakota's 72. Interpretation: SDSU is rarely in third down because they move the chains on first or second down.

NDSU is one of the better teams in FCS in third down defense, and it'll have to be Saturday. The Bison defense has to get off the field and the Bison offense has to stay on the field. Or it'll be a long day.

Mark Gronowski is the Valley's most outstanding quarterback for SDSU. Cam Miller is having an all-conference season for NDSU, even if he's overshadowed by Gronowski and other QBs in the league. All eyes will be on those two excellent signal-callers.

But what role will Bison backup Cole Payton play against the Jacks?

After starting the year rushing for 206 yards and three TDs in the first two games against Eastern Washington and Maine, Payton has gone mostly silent. He gets a series or two a game, more in blowouts, but the explosive run threat has been absent since early September.

In the past six games, Payton has rushed for a total of 94 yards on 27 carries. In the last two games, against conference doormats Western Illinois and Murray State, he's ran three times for minus-four yards. He had a single carry for 2 yards against Murray State last week in a 38-6 victory.

If the Bison are hoping to establish a running game and possess the ball against the Jacks, does the "running quarterback" get more chances this week? Payton is no Easton Stick or Trey Lance, but in big games during their careers the Bison had no problem running them 12-15 times. Or more.

In the 2018 playoff semifinals against SDSU, Stick carried 16 times for 147 yards.

In the 2019 title game against James Madison, Lance carried 30 times for 166 yards.

Payton is not as dangerous as those all-timers — and he's not the starter — but he might give NDSU an offensive option that's been quiet for some time.