2023 ReliaQuest Bowl prediction, odds, line: Mississippi State vs. Illinois picks, best bets from proven model
The Illinois Fighting Illini will look to close out their season on a high note after losing three of their final four regular season games when they take on the No. 22 Mississippi State Bulldogs in Monday's 2023 ReliaQuest Bowl in Tampa, Fla. The Bulldogs (8-4, 4-4 in the SEC), who are still reeling after the sudden death of coach Mike Leach in early December, will look to close the season on a three-game winning streak. The Fighting Illini (8-4, 5-4 in the Big Ten West), who had their first eight-win year since going 9-4 in their Rose Bowl season of 2007, have allowed the fewest points in road or neutral site games at 12.8 points. Illinois held six opponents to single digits, the most of any team in the country.
Kickoff from Raymond James Stadium is set for noon ET. MSU averages 393.2 yards per game, while Illinois averages 386.6. The Bulldogs are favored by 3 points in the latest Mississippi State vs. Illinois odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 45.5. Before locking in any Illinois vs. Mississippi State picks, make sure you check out the college football predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $2,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has locked in on Illinois vs. Mississippi State and just revealed its ReliaQuest Bowl 2023 predictions. You can head to SportsLine to see the model's picks. Here are the CFB odds and betting lines for Mississippi State vs. Illinois:
- Mississippi State vs. Illinois spread: Mississippi State -3
- Mississippi State vs. Illinois over/under: 45.5 points
- Mississippi State vs. Illinois money line: Mississippi State -155, Illinois +130
- MSU: The Bulldogs are 3-0-1 against the spread in their last four non-conference games
- ILL: The Fighting Illini are 9-2-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record
- Mississippi State vs. Illinois picks: See picks at SportsLine
Featured Game| Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Why Mississippi State can cover
The Bulldogs have a one-two punch at running back with junior Jo'quavious Marks and freshman Simeon Price, following the departure of junior Dillon Johnson to the transfer portal. Marks led the team in rushing, carrying 103 times for 532 yards (5.2 average) and nine touchdowns. He reached the end zone in four of the final five regular-season games. In the 24-22 win over No. 20 Mississippi on Nov. 24, Marks carried 14 times for 76 yards and one touchdown.
Price has seen limited action, but had eight carries for 36 yards, including a long of 12 yards, in the 30-6 loss at No. 6 Alabama on Oct. 22. He also set a career high with 55 return yards against the Crimson Tide. He hauled in his first career reception against Memphis on Sept. 3, and had a 32-yard touchdown reception against Bowling Green on Sept. 24, his first career TD. For the season, he has 288 all-purpose yards with 82 yards rushing, 107 receiving and 99 yards returning.
Why Illinois can cover
With running back Chase Brown opting-out, the Fighting Illini will rely on a steadfast defense. They are outscoring opponents 112-53 in the second half this season, and during Illinois' eight wins, opponents have managed a third-down conversion rate of 22.4% (24 of 107). Eight different Illini players have registered an interception this season, so even though star defensive backs Devon Witherspoon and Sydney Brown opted-out, Illinois still has a lot of defensive playmakers.
The Illini have also been stout against the run. They ranked second in the Big Ten and eighth nationally, giving up just 98.4 yards per game on the ground. If they can turn this into a defensive battle, they'll have a great chance to pick up the win, or least keep it within the field goal spread.
How to make Illinois vs. Mississippi State picks
The model is leaning Under on the total, projecting 43 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits well over 60% of the time. You can see who to back at SportsLine.
