2023 U.S. Open golf odds, expert picks and how to watch: Max Homa, Cameron Smith among the favorites

The Athletic

12 June 2023

2023 U.S. Open golf odds, expert picks and how to watch: Max Homa, Cameron Smith among the favorites

The 2023 U.S. Open is this week, and for the first time, Los Angeles Country Club will host the national championship. It’s also the first time in 75 years that Los Angeles has hosted the U.S. Open, and since the tournament is being played on the west coast, we’ll get plenty of prime-time golf this week to celebrate Father’s Day.

Los Angeles Country Club will feature two of the longest par 3s in U.S. Open history, and there’s a chance it also hosts the shortest par 3 in history. It features five par 3s and three par 5s and will play as a par 70 course this week. It’ll play more than 7,300 yards and feature wider-than-normal fairways for a U.S. Open.

Most golf architecture nerds are fired up for this U.S. Open, which excites me that we’ll see some great golf this week beyond bombing and gouging. This course is definitely going to require deep strategy and thinking to navigate it. The best ball strikers in the world should be near the top of the leaderboard after this tough test.

Let’s dive into the odds, expert picks, and TV and streaming schedule for 2023’s third major.

2023 U.S. Open odds

2023 U.S. Open Expert Picks

Brendan Quinn: Xander Schauffele

It’s going to happen eventually — Schauffele winning a major — and this spot makes all the sense in the world. He’s been in solid form — a T10 at Augusta followed by back-to-back top-fives at RBC Heritage and Wells Fargo and a T18 at the PGA. If not for an opening-round 77 at Muirfield Village, he’d have been in the mix at Memorial, but settled for a T24. Schauffele seems to be flying well under the radar, with more attention going to fellow Californians Patrick Cantlay and Max Homa to shake the no-major stigma, but do not sleep here. Schauffele posted five straight finishes of T7 or better at the U.S. Open (2017-21) before finishing T14 last year, a tournament marred by a third-round 75. Now’s the time and LA is the place.

Brody Miller: Cameron Smith

I want one of the best ball strikers in the world at LACC and one with the short game to manage some of these wild areas around the greens. Entering the Masters, the conversation was rightfully about how his game declined since leaving for LIV. Since Augusta, he’s posted finishes of 4, 7, 2, T9 and 11 — and that T9 was in the PGA Championship. A lot of picks have been toward ball strikers like Collin Morikawa, but I want somebody with the complete game to manage this course. But if he’s not driving it accurately, maybe it’s all for naught.

John Hayes: Scottie Scheffler

At Los Angeles Country Club, I’m not overlooking the world’s No. 1 player, Scottie Scheffler. This setup is going to demand pinpoint accuracy and place an emphasis on strategy and golf IQ. Scheffler checks all those boxes and is clearly the best player in the world right now. The strokes-gained statistics in his past 12 rounds vs. the U.S. Open field are absurd. He ranks first in strokes gained tee-to-green, ball striking, off-the-tee and approach. The putting is another story. It’s been very poor and ranks 118th during that same time frame. Knowing he skipped the Canadian Open and had a week off to reset helps. Much time and energy will be spent getting more comfortable with his putter and getting back into a groove. He’ll need to see one drop early on Thursday to kickstart things. It’s all about confidence.

Dennis Esser: Max Homa

It’s so hard not to back Scottie Scheffler with how he’s playing from tee to green, but his continued struggles with the putter have me looking elsewhere. Adam Scott mentioned that the greens and the green complexes will be L.A. Country Club’s best defense in June when he played the course back in January. I think this U.S. Open sets up to be Max Homa’s coming out party on the major stage. He has won here before when competing in the Pac-12 Championship while also dominating at another George Thomas design in Riviera Country Club the past few years.