2023 U.S. Open sleepers, odds, predictions, best bets: Los Angeles Country Club poses a unique test

The U.S. Open returns to the Los Angeles area for the first time since 1948 when it was played at the Riviera Country Club. The 123rd U.S. Open will be played at the prestigious Los Angeles Country Club located right in the heart of some of the most exclusive zip codes in the entire United States.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see the star tour vans passing by golf-tanned corporate executives as they make their way along Wilshire Boulevard to the U.S. Open venue this week. The North Course, which was designed by George C. Thomas Jr. and restored by Gil Hanse and Geoff Shackleford, is a Par 70 that measures over 7,400 yards and features bentgrass greens along with Bermuda fairways and rough. The players won’t have to deal with water hazards this week, but they will have to deal with the U.S. Open rough and the barranca that weaves its way around the course.

The golf course will start off with a friendly Par 5 that measures 578 yards and should be reached easily in two by most of the field. After the scoring chance at the start, we start to see some of the teeth of the course at the Par 4 second. The Par 70 layout features five Par 3s and three Par 5s. Two of the Par 3s measure 286 yards or more while the Par 4 sixth hole may be driveable by the big hitters. The 15th hole is a Par 3 that they can play as short as 90 yards this week. The players will face three long hard Par 4s in a row from 16 through 18 after firing at one of the shortest Par 3s in recent memories.

I find the venue of Los Angeles and nearby Hollywood’s rapidly changing industry a perfectly fitting backdrop to what the golf world saw happen last week in their own industry. Besides the corporate maneuvering off the course, there was a Hollywood-level story that developed in Toronto on the course with Nick Taylor winning his beloved Canadian Open while fighting off Tommy Fleetwood with a 73-foot putt to win on the third playoff hole. And if anyone is looking for an action star or stuntman to fill in this week, they can hit up Adam Hadwin and that security guard that tackled him during the celebrations on the 18th green.

Betting Slip

Jon Rahm +1000 at this number seems like a good value, especially considering his history of stellar play in California and his familiarity with Los Angeles Country Club. Par 3 scoring will be key with five Par 3s on the card and Rahm is No. 1 in the field in Par 3 scoring on the year at 2.88. He lost over five strokes with the putter at the Memorial, but that can be forgiven with how well he has putt all year. He gained more than 9 strokes on approach at the Memorial which bodes well going into this week where second shots will be key.

Viktor Hovland +1600 was trending toward a win when he showed up at the Memorial two weeks ago and boy did he deliver on it. His short game has improved by leaps and bounds this season and that has put him in contention to win his first major championship. After betting him at the Masters and seeing the improvements he was making around the greens as well as on them I had planned on backing him here to win his first major championship. It doesn’t hurt to be hot with the putter as he has gained over 12 strokes putting over his last three tournaments combined.

Jordan Spieth +2500 (Shop up to +2800) won the 2015 U.S. Open at just 21 years old. He hasn’t won a major championship since 2017 and hasn’t finished in the top 19 at the U.S. Open since his win. This particular U.S. Open fits him better than most venues, as he can be creative and keep the ball on the ground more than anywhere else. Spieth gained more than 10 strokes from tee to green at the Memorial and put any worries about his wrist to rest.

Collin Morikawa +3300 would be at a much lower number if he didn’t have back spasms that forced him out of the Memorial on Sunday. He was in a great position to challenge for a win heading into Sunday after gaining over six strokes ball striking in the first three days and putting better than he had in a while. I’m hoping the rest he’s had has rejuvenated him as this venue looks like a perfect spot for him to contend for a U.S. Open.

Sleepers

Mito Pereira +8000 was one good drive away from being a major champion last year and couldn’t get it done at Southern Hills. A lot has happened since, but one thing that hasn’t changed is Mito’s excellent ball striking. He has five top-six finishes on the LIV Golf Tour since February and he has gained over 17 strokes ball striking at the Masters and PGA Championship combined. His putting has been horrendous, but his ball striking has me liking a small bet to see if he can figure something out with his putter this week.

Russell Henley +10000 is too short off the tee to compete at most U.S. Open venues, but should have a punchers chance this week. He has returned to his excellent ball striking ways since finishing T4 at the Masters in April. In his last four tournaments combined, he has gained more than 17 strokes on approach. Henley struggled with his putter in 2022 even if Paul Azinger didn’t want to accept the stats every time he was on TV, but he has been excellent on the greens since April.

DFS Plays

Scottie Scheffler $11,400 is having a historic season from tee to green and probably should have at least two or three more wins under his belt if it wasn’t for a balky putter. His putting started to take a little bit of a downturn right before he won The Players’ Championship and it simply hasn’t recovered. He gained more than 20 strokes from tee to green at the Memorial and didn’t win because he lost over 8.5 strokes putting. He’s the betting favorite for good reason, even if 7-to-1 seems like too short a number with how he’s been putting. I really like the 7K range this week and that makes Scheffler accessible for most lineups this week.

Jon Rahm $11,100 See above.

Brooks Koepka $10,800 feels a bit overpriced for me this week. He’s head and shoulders above everyone in this field when it comes down to contending at major championships, but I’m not sure where his head will be after winning the PGA Championship and only playing once since.

Viktor Hovland $10,000 See above.

Rory McIlroy $9,900 has struggled with his wedge game lately but I don’t think that will be much of an issue this week. He’s finished in the top nine in the last four U.S. Opens and is underpriced this week. He seems to be in control of his emotions, so I’m not worried about that this week. Even though distance off the tee won’t be the biggest factor, it doesn’t hurt that he can overpower some of these holes.

Xander Schauffele $9,600 has struggled around the greens since finishing second at the Wells Fargo Championship. At this price, I don’t want to play someone who isn’t confident around the greens at a U.S. Open.

Max Homa $9,400 was expected to step up this year at major championships, but there still seems to be a mental block when he tees it up at these important tournaments. He has the course record for Los Angeles Country Club when he played here at the 2013 Pac-12 Championship where he lapped a field that included Patrick Cantlay and Jon Rahm. The more I break down the field I can’t roster Homa more than once or twice in a GPP lineup.

Collin Morikawa $9,300 See above.

Jordan Spieth $9,200 See above.

Tyrrell Hatton $8,900 played great at the Canadian Open for two out of four days and just missed out on making a playoff. When he didn’t make birdie on 18 on Friday, he beat himself up so badly and it ended up coming back to haunt him when he missed the playoff by one shot. He’s in great form and is priced in a nice slot where you must roster him.

Tony Finau $8,800 has struggled with his putter since winning in Mexico, and it has bled into his approach game a bit as he even missed his last cut at the Charles Schwab Challenge. I like that he’s priced so low here and will gladly take a chance on him in GPP lineups with the hope that he figured some things out with the extra time off.

Hideki Matsuyama $8,600 has gained 2.24 or more strokes on approach in four straight tournaments, and he has been excellent around the greens during that same period. He gained with his putter his last time out and seemed as healthy as he has been all year.

Tommy Fleetwood $7,900 has one blip on his record in his last six or seven outings and that was his missed cut at the Charles Schwab Challenge. He may have some heartache to get over after losing in a playoff at the Canadian Open, but I’m not too worried about it with how he has been hitting it from tee to green. Plus we get the built-in discount of the prices being set before the Canadian Open ended.

Justin Rose $7,700 has gained almost 17 strokes combined on approach over his last three tournaments. He has been almost as good around the greens during that time. His struggles off the tee shouldn’t hurt him as much here as the fairways are wide and they should be firm and fast.

Bryson DeChambeau $7,600 saw some positives with his game at the LIV Golf Tulsa tournament and rode that confidence to a top-five finish at the PGA Championship. He played well his next time out on the LIV Golf Tour and should come to Los Angeles Country Club with more confidence than he has had in a very long time. I think the long Par 3s and the short Par 4 could be the spots where he makes up some strokes on the field.

Adam Scott $7,500 has four straight made cuts at the U.S. Open with two top 14 finishes among those. He’s been in excellent form lately with three top 10 finishes in his last four outings and has always enjoyed playing in Los Angeles at Riviera Country Club.

Patrick Reed $7,500 has five straight made cuts at the U.S. Open with three top 20s among them. He has been excellent at both major championships this season finishing T4 and 18th. He struggled his last time on the LIV Golf Tour in Washington D.C., but we have to throw that out the window when he comes to a major championship.

Rickie Fowler $7,500 was born and raised in California and has had some excellent results at the U.S. Open despite not winning a major championship in his career. Has seven top 17 finishes in his last eight tournaments. He missed the cut at the PGA Championship, but that was caused by a balky putter which he hasn’t had an issue with this year.

Victor Perez $7,300 missed the cut his last time out at the KLM Open, but was playing well on the DP World Tour before that. He won in January at the Abu Dhabi Championship and has had four top 13 finishes since with one of them coming at the PGA Championship.

Si Woo Kim $7,300 has gained over 14.5 strokes ball striking combined. He hasn’t fared well at U.S. Opens over the years, but this venue should set up well for him.

Denny McCarthy $7,200 had six top 25 finishes since February before finishing second at the Memorial. He putting display on Sunday was something to behold. In a week where Scheffler lost over 8.5 strokes on the green McCarthy gained over 11 strokes. He fought hard for a top 30 at the PGA Championship and was among last year’s U.S. Open leaders.

Mito Pereira $7,200 See above.

Russell Henley $7,100 See above.

Ryan Fox $7,100 has finished inside the top 30 in eight of his last ten tournaments. He shows up as a value in my model so I can’t ignore him in this price range. His T23 at the PGA Championship is fresh in my memory as well.

Eric Cole $7,000 really helped some of my DFS teams by birdieing his last four holes at the Canadian Open. He and C.T. Pan pushed a few teams ahead with their late flurries. Cole has five top-25 finishes in his last seven outings and has been excellent around the greens all season. He’s becoming more consistent off the tee and on his approach shots which are seeing him start to contend.

Adam Hadwin $6,900 might be sporting some extra bumps and bruises and a possible hangover from celebrating Nick Taylor’s win, but he is an interesting play for me in the high $6,000 range. He used to be a California must-play, but has expanded his game to contend even in places where you think he may be at a disadvantage. He has gained more than 8 strokes on approach over his last six rounds combined.

Patrick Rodgers $6,900 has two straight 31st-place finishes at the U.S. Open and pops on my model as a value play this week. He’s been in solid form for most of the season and should be comfortable competing in California after starring at Stanford.

Sebastián Muñoz $6,700 is coming off a T4 finish on the LIV Golf Tour and is a player I used to love fitting into my lineups before he made the jump to LIV.

Romain Langasque $6,600 made the cut his last time teeing it up at the U.S. Open and is in great form on the DP World Tour. He finished second at the Italian Open and followed that up with a T16 and a T10.

Sam Bennett $6,500 is showing some ups and downs around and on the greens, but he has been good off the tee since turning professional. He contended as an amateur at the Masters, so he has been in high-pressure situations.

I can see some other dart throws like on Dylan Wu ($6,500) since he got back to striking the ball well at the Canadian Open (gained over 7 strokes ball striking) or on Sam Stevens ($6,600) who made the cut at last year’s U.S. Open and has been playing decently since he contended at Puntacana and the Texas Open.

One and Done

Standings

Andrew DeWitt: $9,054,546.22 (1 winner, 20 of 22 cuts)

John Hayes: $8,588,568.37 (1 winner, 16 of 22 cuts)

Dennis Esser: $5,958,069 (18 of 22 cuts)

If you want to see the golfers we have used throughout the year, you can see our spreadsheet tracking it here. We pick in reverse order of the standings and can’t duplicate players in a given week.

Esser: I had plans to use Collin Morikawa or Max Homa here thinking the local boys contending story would write its own Hollywood ending, but things have changed since January. Homa has continued to struggle in major championships and Morikawa had struggled a bit recently before being forced to withdraw due to back spasms at the Memorial. I decided to return to my strategy at the PGA Championship and play the best players available from the LIV Golf Tour. I’m not going to play around thinking about a sneaky Cameron Smith or Patrick Reed play this week. I’m going with the perennial major championship contender in Brooks Koepka.

Hayes: I’m playing Jon Rahm this weekend. I’ve saved him for a big moment and this is it. I could see the tournament coming down to Scottie Scheffler vs. Rahm on Sunday evening. If it does, golf fans will likely witness an epic US Open finish. I’m expecting Rahm to putt well on LACC’s pure bentgrass greens and use his strong golf IQ to play the course as it demands.

DeWitt: It’s time to use Scottie Scheffler. If we ignore the putting woes recently, he continues to have one of the best strokes gained seasons in recent memory. He’s dominating in everything BUT putting and he still is finishing in the top 10 despite huge struggles with the putter. If he has an average week putting and his ball striking is on point, he could run away with this championship. But the putting woes are definitely between his ears at this point.