2023 U.S. Open odds, golf picks: Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler predictions by the model that called the Masters

The 2023 U.S. Open is quickly approaching, as Los Angeles Country Club will host the world's top golfers beginning on Thursday, June 15. It's been a 2022-23 PGA Tour season marked by household names finding success after Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, Max Homa and Tony Finau have all piled up multiple wins. They each come into the U.S. Open 2023 with plenty of momentum, but they'll be challenged by a loaded 2023 U.S. Open field that includes other top-10 players like Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, Viktor Hovland and Xander Schauffele. The latest 2023 U.S. Open odds from Caesars Sportsbook list Scheffler as the 7-1 favorite. He's followed closely by Rahm, the 2021 champion, at 8-1 among the 2023 U.S. Open contenders.

Before locking in your 2023 U.S. Open picks or entering any PGA DFS tournaments on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up more than $8,300 on its best bets since that point, nailing tournament after tournament.

McClure's model predicted Jon Rahm would finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. And at the 2023 Masters, the model was all over Rahm's second career major victory heading into the weekend. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the third round, but the model still projected him as the winner. It was the second straight Masters win for the model, which also nailed Scottie Scheffler winning in 2022.

In addition, the model included Nick Hardy and Davis Riley in its best bets to win the 2023 Zurich Classic. That bet hit at +4500, and for the entire tournament, McClure's best bets returned over $1,100. McClure's best bets also included Jason Day (17-1) winning outright at the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson, even though he hadn't won a PGA Tour event since 2018.

This same model has also nailed a whopping nine majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.

Now that the 2023 U.S. Open is approaching, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected 2023 U.S. Open leaderboard.

2023 U.S. Open predictions for Max Homa, Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm  

One shocker the model is calling for at the U.S. Open 2023: Max Homa, a six-time PGA Tour winner and one of the top favorites, stumbles and barely cracks the top 15. Homa is undeniably one of the most gifted putters on the PGA Tour, ranking third in putting average (1.690), fifth in strokes gained putting (0.741) and sixth in putts per round (27.89).

However, Homa has struggled on the tee box this season, ranking 71st in strokes gained off the tee (0.138) and 92nd in driving accuracy (59.61%). Homa's inconsistency off the tee is a major reason why he enters the 2023 U.S. Open ranked 105th in greens in regulation percentage (65.12%). In addition, the 32-year-old has finished 43rd or worse in each of his last four starts at a major, which includes a 47th-place showing at the U.S. Open in 2022. He's not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in the 2023 U.S. Open field, according to the model. See who else to fade here. 

The model has also locked in its projection for Scottie Scheffler, the No. 1-ranked player in the world. Scheffler's consistency has been unparalleled this season. The 26-year-old has finished 1th2 or better in his last 15 starts on the PGA Tour. He's coming off a third-place showing at the Memorial Tournament and finished inside the top five in four straight starts.

Scheffler secured a runner-up finish at the PGA Championship in May and was second at the U.S. Open in 2022. He has all the tools needed to win the second major of his career at Los Angeles Country Club. Scheffler enters the third major of the year ranked first in several categories, including strokes gained off the tee (1.107), strokes gained tee-to-green (2.567), strokes gained total (2.501) and greens in regulation percentage (74.11%). However, he's struggled on the greens this season, ranking 114th in strokes gained putting (-0.066) and one-putt percentage (38.49%). See where every golfer finishes here.

On the other hand, the model has examined Jon Rahm's chances to win his second major championship of the season. Rahm has racked up 11 career victories on the PGA Tour and been strong this season, securing four wins and eight top-10 finishes.

He's also fared well at the U.S. Open in recent years. In fact, Rahm finished on top of the leaderboard in 2021 and was 12th or better in three of his last four starts at the U.S. Open. The Spaniard will enter Los Angeles Country Club ranked first in birdie average (5.02), second in scoring average (68.27) and third in greens in regulation percentage (72.35%). However, Rahm ranks 59th in strokes gained around-the-green (0.155) and 69th in driving accuracy (60.95%). See the full U.S. Open projections from the model here.

How to make 2023 U.S. Open picks

The model is targeting four golfers with 2023 U.S. Open odds of 18-1 or longer who will make surprising runs. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model's 2023 U.S. Open picks here.

Who will win the 2023 U.S. Open, which longshots will stun the golfing world, and where will Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler finish? Check out the latest 2023 U.S. Open odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected U.S. Open 2023 leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed nine golf majors, including the Masters.

2023 U.S. Open odds, field

Scottie Scheffler +700
Jon Rahm +800
Brooks Koepka +900
Rory McIlroy +1000
Max Homa +1400
Justin Thomas +1600
Patrick Cantlay +1600
Viktor Hovland +1800
Cameron Smith +1800
Xander Schauffele +1800
Collin Morikawa +2200
Jordan Spieth +2500
Matt Fitzpatrick +2500
Tony Finau +2500
Dustin Johnson +2800
Hideki Matsuyama +3500
Shane Lowry +3500
Cameron Young +3500
Sungjae Im +3500
Bryson DeChambeau +4000
Jason Day +4000
Joaquin Niemann +5000
Sam Burns +5000
Rickie Fowler +5000
Sahith Theegala +5500
Tyrrell Hatton +5500
Corey Conners +5500
Aaron Wise +6000
Daniel Berger +6000
Tommy Fleetwood +6000
Joonhyung (Tom) Kim +6000
Louis Oosthuizen +6500
Wyndham Clark +6500
Keegan Bradley +6500
Davis Riley +6500
Marc Leishman +6500
Billy Horschel +7000
Denny McCarthy +7500
Justin Rose +7500
Seamus Power +8000
Mito Pereira +8000
Patrick Reed +8500
Russell Henley +9000
Talor Gooch +9000
Abraham Ancer +9000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +10000
Robert MacIntyre +10000
Webb Simpson +10000
Gary Woodland +10000
Harold Varner +10000
Jason Kokrak +10000
Adam Scott +10000
Thomas Pieters +12500
Tom Hoge +12500
Chris Kirk +12500
Mackenzie Hughes +12500
Si-Woo Kim +12500
Brian Harman +12500
Luke List +12500
Cam Davis +12500
Sergio Garcia +12500
Sebastian Munoz +12500
Kurt Kitayama +12500
Patrick Rodgers +15000
Lucas Herbert +15000
Matthew NeSmith +15000
Keith Mitchell +15000
Adrian Meronk +15000
Cameron Tringale +15000
Harris English +15000
Kevin Kisner +15000
Taylor Moore +15000
K.H. Lee +15000
JT Poston +15000
Alex Noren +15000
Phil Mickelson +15000
Min Woo Lee +15000
Adam Hadwin +17500
Victor Perez +17500
Adam Svensson +17500
Nick Hardy +17500
Matt Kuchar +20000
Joel Dahmen +20000
Eddie Pepperell +20000
Sepp Straka +20000
Taylor Montgomery +20000
Justin Suh +20000
Nick Taylor +20000